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March 31, 2023 Live Tape Reading - AM Session
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March 31, 2023 Live Tape Reading - AM Session

Foreign

The speaker greets the audience and mentions that he forgot to bring a bottle of water. He asks if the volume is okay and mentions that he likes the 4104 level.

Speaker's Introduction

  • The speaker greets the audience.
  • He mentions that he forgot to bring a bottle of water.
  • Asks if the volume is okay.
  • Mentions that he likes the 4104 level.

Observing Silver Bullet Set Up

The speaker talks about observing between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock to see if they can get a silver bullet set up.

Observing Silver Bullet Set Up

  • The speaker talks about observing between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock to see if they can get a silver bullet set up.
  • Waiting for price this mark time until we get into that hour.

Anchored Opening Price

The speaker discusses anchored opening price, where we've already pressed up overnight, created a run at E30 news, pushed above it with this high, created another swing high above that one, and now created another high above that one.

Anchored Opening Price

  • The speaker discusses anchored opening price.
  • Talks about how we've already pressed up overnight.
  • Mentions creating a run at E30 news, pushing above it with this high, creating another swing high above that one, and now creating another high above that one.
  • Talks about how we could see a run to one zero two point two five, which gives allowance for further upside on ES.

Trading Analysis and Strategy

The speaker discusses the current state of trading, focusing on the dollar index and ES. They also discuss their strategy for finding profitable trades.

Watching Key Levels

  • The dollar index is gravitating towards the 102.25 sell side resting level on the five-minute chart.
  • If the price goes below this level and then rejects it, it could be problematic for continuation on the upside for ES.
  • The speaker is watching to see if there is any further animation or movement in this area. If not, they will look for other levels to trade towards.

Importance of Time

  • The speaker emphasizes that traders should focus on finding setups that form between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM for a five-handle run.
  • They advise against trying to hit home runs and instead recommend starting with these setups.
  • Once traders understand what they are looking for, they can trade off of quotes coming to them without needing a chart. However, this is not advised for new traders who do not yet understand time.

Personal Strategy

  • The speaker uses a notepad with all the levels they are interested in written down in numerical format in order of importance. They write down the opening price in relation to these levels at the start of each day's trading session.
  • They plan to take a break from social media next week while traveling but will still be reading Bible study and spending time with friends and family.

Dollar Index Analysis

This section focuses specifically on analyzing the dollar index.

Key Levels

  • The dollar index is currently trading around the 102.25 sell side resting level on the five-minute chart.
  • The speaker is watching to see if there is any further movement in this area and how it will affect ES trading.

Candlestick Analysis

  • The most recent five-minute candlestick has created a small space between the low of the previous candle (945) and the low of 102.29. The speaker notes that this may be an area that needs rebalancing.

Dollar Breach

In this section, the speaker discusses their desire to see the dollar breach 102.10 and get below 102.

Dollar Movement

  • The speaker wants to see the dollar breach 102.10 and get below 102.
  • The speaker tells the listener to watch their dollar.
  • The speaker mentions that the dollar needs to make its lower lows in order for it to do so.

Afternoon Session Expectations

In this section, the speaker talks about their expectations for the afternoon session.

Afternoon Session

  • The speaker expects that the afternoon session from 2:30 PM to 4:00 PM will be very busy.
  • The speaker mentions that they expect the 11 o'clock hour to be formidable in terms of finding a Silver Bullet set up.

Higher High Confirmation

In this section, the speaker discusses higher high confirmation across three indices.

Higher High Confirmation

  • The speaker confirms that everything is agreeing on a higher high for three indices.
  • The NASDAQ has had higher highs.
  • The Dow has confirmed a higher high as well.
  • There hasn't been any indication of waning sponsorship across all three indices.

Spotty Price Action

In this section, the speaker talks about spotty price action and how it affects trading decisions.

Spotty Price Action

  • The speaker refers to the price action as being spotty and not precise.
  • The speaker mentions that it hasn't offered them a whole lot of precise entry points this week.
  • The speaker advises listeners to be patient and not demand too much because the market will do what it's going to do regardless.

Euro Dollar Buy Side

In this section, the speaker talks about risk on risk off and euro dollar buy side.

Euro Dollar Buy Side

  • The euro dollar has a little bit of buy side on the five-minute chart just above 108.95.

Forex and Dow Analysis

In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the Forex market and the Dow.

Forex Market Analysis

  • The speaker notes that if the dollar index can reach 25, it could lead to a significant change in certain areas.
  • The Dow appears to be reaching its peak and may not have much room for growth. However, caution is advised as there may still be unexpected upward movements.

Dollar Index Chart

  • The speaker recommends having a dollar index chart alongside other charts to measure real-time relationships between risk on and risk off.
  • The dollar index has reached 102.25 level, which needs to be washed out more prominently.

Euro Dollar and Cable

  • Euro dollar is running into the buy side while cable is still hanging around without doing much.
  • ES looks like it wants to upset the trend line.

Importance of Draw in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of draw in trading.

  • Without draw, traders are like sailboats without rudders.
  • At present, nothing jumps off the chart as a high probability trade opportunity.
  • Traders need obvious opportunities with high probability and low risk before making any trades.

Potential Short Trade Opportunity

In this section, the speaker discusses potential short trade opportunities.

  • If ES displaces lower and creates a fair value gap, it could set up a stage for a short trade opportunity.
  • Traders should look for an opportunity to draw down into opening range gap high if they can't go higher on NES.

Understanding Market Conditions

In this section, the speaker discusses how to approach trading in uncertain market conditions and emphasizes the importance of patience and waiting for clear signals.

Importance of Waiting for Clear Signals

  • The market needs to show a clear signal or displacement before making a move.
  • New traders often chase price due to fear of missing out, leading to losses.
  • Anticipating and looking for clear signals is key to successful trading.

Trading in Challenging Market Conditions

  • It's important to be patient when trading in challenging market conditions.
  • Waiting for clear signals is crucial during choppy markets.
  • Observing price movements during difficult market conditions can help traders gain a better understanding of how markets work.
  • Pushing trades during challenging market conditions can lead to mental breakdown and psychological fatigue.

Giving Yourself Permission to Wait

  • Traders need to give themselves permission to wait on the sidelines sometimes.
  • Not every price swing needs engagement, and it's okay if the market moves without you.
  • A trade must make sense logically within the context of your model, from a risk standpoint.

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of trading and asks the audience to think about their actions before making impulsive decisions.

Speaker's Question

  • The speaker asks the audience if they are feeling any inspiration from the current price action, and warns against impulsive or gambling behavior.

Price Action Analysis

The speaker analyzes the current price action and discusses potential risks and opportunities.

Spotty Price Action

  • The speaker notes that the current price action is spotty and not likely to result in a large trade. They explain why it's important to wait for more information before making a move.

Equilibrium Range

  • The speaker explains that if the dollar index moves above 102.30, it could be problematic for ES going higher. They also discuss how to identify fair value gaps using opening prices on candles.

Expectations for Next Week

The speaker discusses their expectations for next week's trading due to upcoming holidays.

Wonky Price Action

  • The speaker predicts that next week's trading may have wonky price action due to holidays, but advises patience in waiting for good trades.

Live Stream Schedule Update

The speaker updates viewers on their live stream schedule.

Next Live Stream Date

  • The speaker announces that their next live stream will be on April 11th, and reminds viewers of previous streams available for viewing.

Index Analysis

The speaker cycles through various indices and discusses lack of opportunities.

Lack of Opportunities

  • The speaker notes that there are no opportunities in Forex or other indices at the moment.

Patience in Trading

The speaker discusses the importance of patience and waiting for good trades.

Waiting for Good Trades

  • The speaker emphasizes that it's important to wait for good trades, even if it means nothing happens during a live stream. They note that this is part of real-world trading.

Imbalance in the Market

In this section, the speaker discusses the current state of the market and how it is imbalanced.

Imbalance in the Market

  • There is still an imbalance in the market.
  • The speaker is looking at the Dow on a one-minute chart.
  • The market needs to stay above a certain area to avoid problems.
  • Knowing when to sit still is a valuable skill set.

Short Term Buy Side Risk

In this section, the speaker talks about short term buy side risk and how it relates to trading levels.

Short Term Buy Side Risk

  • There is short term buy side risk right above a certain level.
  • The ES is being stubborn.
  • The market is being fickle and not allowing for clean price runs and setups.

Volume Balance

In this section, the speaker discusses volume balance and its importance in trading.

Volume Balance

  • The speaker mentions volume balance.
  • There is a problem with dial lagging.
  • The NASDAQ is leading while other averages are lagging behind.

Mixed Bag This Morning

In this section, the speaker talks about the mixed state of the market in the morning.

Mixed Bag This Morning

  • The NASDAQ is up while other averages are failing to make higher highs.
  • The speaker hopes to reach a certain level before toggling to a different screen.
  • There is a lower high and leader among the averages.

Endow Slipping and Sell Side Resting

In this section, the speaker discusses how endow is slipping with a lower high. They also mention that lots of stops have been trailed up to here now so we now have sell side resting below there.

Key Points:

  • Endow is slipping with a lower high.
  • Lots of stops have been trailed up to here now so we now have sell side resting below there.
  • Overnight longs rode out the rally and see consolidation as support. There are lots of liquidity resting right here.
  • The speaker emphasizes keeping an eye on price action and avoiding distractions that may cause one to miss an entry.

Dow Not Supporting ES

In this section, the speaker talks about how the Dow is not supporting any of this Assad and how it needs to go for another higher high. They also mention that apart from the dollar not helping much here in the Dow being in the laggard, this would be the setup from here up into 4108 and a half.

Key Points:

  • The Dow is not supporting any of this Assad and needs to go for another higher high.
  • Apart from the dollar not helping much here in the Dow being in the laggard, this would be the setup from here up into 4108 and a half.
  • The NASDAQ has already shown willingness to make a higher high while ES still needs to make one.
  • Inter-market analysis can help filter out opportunities that may not be as high probability.

PD Array and Volume of Balance

In this section, the speaker discusses PD array and volume of balance. They also mention that if ES is going to go higher and make a higher high like NASDAQ did, the Dow would have to climb higher in the volume and balance down here would be the last line of defense for that idea.

Key Points:

  • The speaker talks about PD array and volume of balance.
  • If ES is going to go higher and make a higher high like NASDAQ did, the Dow would have to climb higher in the volume and balance down here would be the last line of defense for that idea.
  • Price remaining above the volume and balance is preferred if it's going to go higher to 4108 to 41.10.
  • The speaker takes a quick look at Dale which needs to really spring up here still willingness to want to go higher.

Understanding Standard Deviation

In this section, the speaker talks about standard deviation and its value.

Standard Deviation

  • The speaker mentions a standard deviation of negative one.

Reading Order Flow

In this section, the speaker discusses how to read order flow and interpret candlestick charts.

Interpreting Candlestick Charts

  • The speaker explains that the bodies of candles should stay above a gap for order flow to be maintained.
  • If the bodies start going below the gap, it is problematic for a casino meal in the near term.
  • Ladder depth of market Doms are not necessary for reading order flow.

Relative Strength Leader

In this section, the speaker talks about relative strength leaders and how they can help with trading decisions.

Relative Strength Leaders

  • ES is currently the relative strength leader to the upside while NASDAQ is not joining in on higher highs.
  • ES has made a higher high while NASDAQ has not yet done so.
  • A higher dollar makes trade ideas anemic in terms of easy long positions for ES.

Managing Risk on Risk Off

In this section, the speaker discusses managing risk on risk off and using inter-market relationships to make trading decisions.

Managing Risk on Risk Off

  • The speaker uses FX pairs as an example of inter-market relationships to make trading decisions.
  • It is important to look at all other markets because one market may be ahead of everything else.

Importance of Having a Complete View of the Markets

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of having a complete view of all markets and not just focusing on one market.

Importance of Having a Complete View

  • It is important to have a complete view of what all the markets are doing.
  • One market will be Telltale and it tips its hand to you.
  • You have to watch the dollar Index which is about to make a higher high.

High-Risk Trading Setup

In this section, the speaker discusses a high-risk trading setup that he would only participate in with minimal risk.

High-Risk Trading Setup

  • The speaker suggests that there is an imbalance in the market.
  • He wants to see it traded at 104.51, which would be institutional workflow entry drill.
  • This setup is high risk because we haven't had these lows taken out.
  • The speaker would only participate in this trade with minimal risk.

Market Analysis and Decision Making

In this section, the speaker analyzes the market and discusses decision making based on information gathered from analysis.

Market Analysis and Decision Making

  • The speaker considers entering into a trade due to such reactions in cable Euro even though he's not a Forex Trader.
  • NASDAQ failed to make higher highs with ES Dow being laggard all morning.
  • The speaker is just playing on the idea that this is an imbalance.
  • If the market doesn't deliver, you have to demand much more from it.
Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.