The US vs. Itself — and Other Top Global Risks in 2024 | Ian Bremmer | TED

Understanding the Top Risks for 2024

Introduction to Current Global Context

• Helen Walters opens the discussion, highlighting a sense of nervous anticipation for 2024 amidst global turmoil, including wars and significant elections that may impact democracy.

The United States' Internal Crisis

• Ian Bremmer introduces his annual list of Top Risks for 2024, starting with "the United States versus itself."

• He notes that while the U.S. has a strong economy and military, its political system is in crisis, unable to ensure a legitimate transition of power.

Geopolitical Instability

• Bremmer emphasizes ongoing geopolitical instability due to wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, which heightens concerns among U.S. allies and adversaries.

Political Division and Trump's Influence

• The risk is exacerbated by deep political divisions within the U.S., with Trump likely regaining nomination influence over GOP policies.

• His potential return could shift Republican policy orientations significantly, affecting various issues from foreign relations to immigration.

Vulnerability of U.S. Elections

• Bremmer warns about the possibility of not holding a free and fair election on November 5 due to misinformation's growing impact on electoral integrity.

Concerns Over Election Security

• He identifies the vulnerability of U.S. elections as a critical concern among intelligence leaders rather than external military threats.

• This vulnerability stems from Americans living in disparate information environments, complicating consensus on democratic processes.

Institutional Legitimacy at Stake

• Bremmer argues that Trump's candidacy reflects deeper issues within U.S. institutions that have been delegitimized over decades.

High Stakes for All Parties Involved

• The stakes are particularly high for both Biden's team and Trump; each fears severe consequences if they lose power or face legal repercussions under a politicized justice system.

Conclusion: Uncertain Future Ahead

Discussion on Political Leadership and Global Conflicts

The Limitations of Current U.S. Leadership

• The speaker expresses skepticism about both Biden and Trump’s ability to address the deep political divide in the U.S., suggesting that Trump benefits from portraying adversaries as existential threats.

• Despite Biden's willingness to bridge divides, his presidency has not resolved the issues, leading to increased dysfunction within U.S. political institutions.

• Biden has achieved legislative successes like a bipartisan infrastructure package and the Inflation Reduction Act, yet societal divisions persist.

• The current political environment is characterized by a lack of diplomacy among leaders, exacerbating existing tensions.

Overview of Global Conflicts

• The speaker identifies three major conflicts: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and internal U.S. strife, noting an absence of diplomatic solutions for any.

• Concerns are raised about the potential escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict into a broader regional war due to multiple volatile factors.

Escalation Risks in Middle East Conflicts

• Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are escalating with missile exchanges and military actions; Israeli leadership feels compelled to act decisively against perceived threats.

• The Israeli government aims to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities while also addressing threats from Iranian proxies across various regions including Yemen and Iraq.

• There is a growing radicalization among Palestinians due to dire conditions in Gaza, which could lead to increased violence both regionally and globally.

Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

• The humanitarian crisis in Gaza raises concerns over potential ethnic cleansing accusations against Israel, complicating U.S. support for its ally amidst global scrutiny.

• As conflicts escalate, the U.S. finds itself more isolated internationally than during previous crises like Ukraine's invasion by Russia.

Domestic Political Consequences

• Biden faces challenges domestically as many Democratic supporters lean towards supporting Palestinian causes over Israeli actions; this poses risks for his re-election efforts amid escalating conflicts.

Future Prospects for Peace Solutions

Security and Governance in Israel-Palestine

The Nature of Security

• The speaker emphasizes that security in the context of Gaza is primarily focused on Israeli needs rather than Palestinian ones, complicating the potential for a two-state solution.

• Acknowledges that the Israeli government failed to adequately address security concerns prior to October 7, highlighting lapses in intelligence and prioritization by leadership.

• Points out the asymmetrical military advantage Israel holds over Palestinians, including advanced defense systems like Iron Dome, which underscores their capacity for self-defense compared to Palestinians.

Rights and Governance

• Discusses the right to self-defense for both Israelis and Palestinians but notes that Palestinians lack the means to defend themselves effectively.

• Argues that without legitimate governance for Palestinians, achieving a two-state solution remains unattainable; current conditions are far from enabling such governance.

Long-term Prospects

• Highlights that peace in the region hinges on creating sustainable solutions where Palestinians can secure economic opportunities and safety for future generations.

The Reality of Partitioned Ukraine

Understanding Partitioned Ukraine

• Clarifies that discussing partitioned Ukraine is not a personal preference but an acknowledgment of existing geopolitical realities; it reflects ongoing tensions rather than aspirations.

• Notes that despite international disapproval, Ukraine is currently de facto partitioned due to Russian invasions in 2014 and 2022.

Military Support Challenges

• Expresses concern about diminishing American support for Ukraine's military efforts as political priorities shift towards other global issues like Israel-Palestine.

• Warns that if U.S. support wanes under potential new leadership (e.g., Trump), it could leave Ukrainians feeling vulnerable and desperate amidst ongoing conflict.

Implications for Alliances

• Suggests that weakening support for Ukraine threatens not only its territorial integrity but also undermines NATO's strength as a critical military alliance globally.

Stalemate Dynamics: Risks and Opportunities

Current Stalemate Situation

• Describes how while Ukraine risks losing ground, there remain scenarios where they could still achieve favorable outcomes despite being partitioned.

Potential Solutions

EU Integration and NATO Membership for Ukraine

Path to NATO Membership

• Discussion on the potential fast-tracking of NATO membership for Ukraine, emphasizing that it cannot happen immediately but could be feasible within two to three years.

• The proposed membership would exclude Russian-occupied territories, focusing instead on defending the remaining Ukrainian territory.

Impact of War on Ukraine

• Acknowledgment of the severe humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, including displacement and war crimes, while maintaining that there is still a path for Ukraine to succeed.

• Assertion that Russia will not win the war; they may control some territory but will face long-term animosity from Ukrainians.

Historical Context and Future Implications

• Comparison of current tensions with historical conflicts (e.g., Turkish-Armenian genocide), suggesting deep-rooted enmity towards Russia will persist.

• Analysis of how Russia's actions have led to an expanded NATO presence, countering their original concerns about NATO encroachment.

Consequences for Russia

Economic Isolation

• Discussion on Germany's transition away from Russian gas as a long-term cost to Russia amidst economic sanctions and isolation.

• Mention of significant emigration from Russia, particularly among young men who are avoiding military service, which could impact the Russian economy negatively.

Support from Allies

• Noting that Russia's only substantial allies providing military support are Belarus, North Korea, and Iran—highlighting a lack of strong international partnerships.

Putin’s Misjudgment

Global Repercussions

• Critique of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine as one of the worst miscalculations by a global leader since 1989.

• Reflection on how Western nations' previous complacency after earlier invasions contributed to this misjudgment.

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI in 2023

• Introduction to generative AI becoming mainstream in 2023 and its polarizing effects—some view it as transformative while others fear existential risks.

Focus Areas for AI Development

• Emphasis on the need for society to focus on responsible development and deployment of AI technologies moving into 2024.

Potential Benefits of AI

Transformative Technology

• Enthusiasm expressed regarding AI as a transformative technology across various sectors, enhancing productivity regardless of existing power structures.

Efficiency Across Industries

AI Displacement and Governance Challenges

The Fast-Paced AI Landscape

• The competitive nature of the AI industry is leading to rapid displacement among AI players, with those unable to keep up facing threats from better-funded competitors.

• There is a lack of focus on the common good and negative externalities associated with AI development, contrasting the profit-driven mindset prevalent in capitalist markets.

• Historical patterns show that while profits are celebrated, losses—such as those related to climate change—are often externalized, leaving future generations to bear the costs.

Urgency for Governance

• Unlike gradual issues like climate change, AI presents immediate challenges that require governance structures capable of addressing both positive advancements and negative consequences simultaneously.

• Concerns arise regarding disinformation campaigns powered by AI that could undermine democratic processes and societal stability.

Risks from Malicious Use of AI

• The potential misuse of AI technologies includes creating malware or autonomous weapons, posing significant risks as these capabilities become more accessible.

• The pace of technological advancement outstrips governmental response capabilities, creating an urgent need for effective governance frameworks.

Current Governance Efforts

• Existing governance measures include the EU's comprehensive AI Act aimed at regulation and transparency; however, implementation speed remains a concern due to competing market pressures.

• In contrast to the EU's proactive approach, U.S. governance efforts are slower due to political divisions but still represent progress in regulating emerging technologies.

Future Implications of Governance Structures

• Effective governance can help identify critical actors in both government and private sectors, facilitating quicker responses during crises stemming from AI misuse.

Tech Challenges and Global Dynamics in 2024

The Evolving Landscape of Technology

• The discussion highlights the rapid evolution of technology, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies as new dangers emerge.

• A significant concern is the potential rise of protectionist policies by governments, which could disrupt the supply chain of essential minerals and materials required for tech development.

US-China Tensions in High-Tech Development

• The ongoing competition between the US and China in high-tech sectors, particularly AI, is a focal point. Despite improved relations in 2024, tensions remain high.

• The US aims to secure semiconductor production within trusted countries while imposing export controls on critical technologies to limit China's access.

China's Position on Critical Minerals

• China lags behind in semiconductor technology but dominates critical minerals necessary for various technologies, including renewable energy infrastructure.

• In response to US restrictions on semiconductors, China may impose licensing regimes on its mineral exports, potentially increasing costs for American buyers without outright cutting off supplies.

Implications for Global Energy Transition

• The geopolitical struggle between the US and China complicates global efforts to transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources.

• Rising costs associated with critical minerals due to political tensions could hinder progress towards cleaner energy solutions.

Industrial Policies and Global Supply Chains

• Governments worldwide are implementing industrial policies aimed at securing their own resources and encouraging local investment in technology.

• These developments create politically induced costs that challenge efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels during a crucial period of environmental transition.

Reflections on Global Issues and Personal Connections

• Acknowledgment of interconnected global issues emphasizes the importance of personal connections amidst broader discussions about business and policy decisions.

• A poignant quote underscores that meaningful change starts with individual relationships; if we cannot impact those close to us, larger efforts may be futile.

Insights from Personal Experience

• The speaker shares reflections from a recent trip to Antarctica, highlighting its governance model focused on scientific preservation rather than resource exploitation.

Discussion on the Treaty and Global Stewardship

The Significance of the Treaty Until 2048

• The treaty is set to remain effective until 2048, prompting discussions about its potential exploitation by nations like China and Russia.

• Despite concerns, the speaker emphasizes that having a functional agreement in today's unpredictable environment is a significant achievement.

Reflections on Human Capability and Leadership

• The speaker reflects on humanity's ability to act as stewards when motivated, suggesting a need for increased collective responsibility.

• There is concern over the lack of leadership in addressing pressing global issues, with individuals focusing narrowly on personal interests rather than broader humanitarian needs.

A Call for Connection and Awareness

• The speaker urges people to connect with those around them, highlighting our shared existence and the transient nature of life.