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ICT Mentorship 2023 - September 14, 2023 Market Review
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - September 14, 2023 Market Review

Dollar Index Analysis and Market Insights

Overview of Dollar Index and Market Conditions

  • The speaker reviews the daily chart on the Dollar Index, highlighting two areas of buy-side liquidity previously discussed.
  • Mentions that it is rollover week for futures, indicating potential volatility as contracts transition from September to December.
  • Discusses expected news drivers at 8:30 AM New York time, which could influence market movements.

Price Action Observations

  • Notes a challenge to a potential buy-side quarterly pull; if not realized by Friday, expectations shift to next week.
  • Analyzes Euro's performance against the dollar, referencing an inversion fair value gap and its respect in price action.
  • Indicates that the British Pound may follow a similar downward trend towards the 123.08 level.

Futures Market Dynamics

  • Compares S&P Futures with Nasdaq Futures, predicting higher trades into specific liquidity zones based on pre-market analysis.
  • Emphasizes prior communication on Twitter regarding market expectations before significant news releases.

Engagement and Future Content Plans

  • Encourages viewers to engage with content by liking videos to inspire future short-term uploads on YouTube post-February 2024.

Technical Analysis Insights

  • Highlights how S&P has effectively reached discount levels compared to Nasdaq; anticipates bullish trends if certain liquidity areas are targeted.
  • Discusses contrasting movements between dollar index trading higher while equities trade lower due to geopolitical uncertainties affecting market conditions.

Hourly Chart Examination

  • Reviews hourly charts showing market behavior around daily lows and efficiency levels observed earlier in the week.
  • Describes whipsaw trading patterns above daily balance points leading into identified fair value gaps.

Key Price Levels and Predictions

  • Identifies key price levels for both S&P and Nasdaq futures; emphasizes importance of recognizing these levels ahead of time for effective trading strategies.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Understanding Market Structure and Liquidity

  • The market approaches buy-side liquidity, with key levels identified as daily inversions that serve as support structures for intraday trading.
  • Notable SMT (Smart Money Technique) divergence observed: S&P's low is higher than NASDAQ's, indicating a potential rally after NASDAQ reached its predicted low.
  • A 15-minute bearish order block was targeted, which aligns with previous analyses shared on social media platforms.

Intraday Trading Strategies

  • Focus on lower time frames reveals a bullish sentiment; the market must first drop to specific levels before moving higher.
  • Continued observation of SMT divergence shows a shift in market structure, reinforcing bullish expectations despite fluctuations in price action.

Trade Execution Challenges

  • Emphasis on prior analysis being crucial; all levels were established days before trading and shared publicly for transparency.
  • Discussion of a personal trade using the "three drives" pattern, highlighting the importance of recognizing sensitive market levels where price may reverse.

Technical Issues During Trading

  • Encountered technical difficulties while attempting to manage trades; unable to set stop loss or take profit orders due to broker issues.
  • Despite challenges, successfully executed a live trade resulting in significant profits but faced stress from inability to manage positions effectively.

Reflections on Trading Experience

  • The trader reflects on missed opportunities due to technical glitches but emphasizes learning from these experiences for future trades.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Close Proximity Exit Strategy

  • The speaker discusses a trading strategy focused on taking close proximity exits to minimize mental stress, specifically referencing a low point at $7,400.
  • This low was identified as a significant level earlier in the day, which the speaker monitored closely for potential market movements.

Market Dynamics and Short Selling

  • The speaker notes that while bullish trends were anticipated, they also considered short selling opportunities when the market was high.
  • They express their intention to sell at higher levels before the expected downward movement occurred.

Trade Execution Intentions

  • The plan involved executing a short trade to capitalize on the downward movement, with specific targets for partial profit-taking set at 540.
  • After securing profits from the short position, there was an intention to switch strategies and go long later in the day.

Demonstrating Trading Competence

  • The speaker emphasizes their capability to trade effectively with real money, countering claims of incompetence from critics.
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.