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Estalla la burbuja de la IA: todo lo que está pasando alrededor del gran colapso tecnológico
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Estalla la burbuja de la IA: todo lo que está pasando alrededor del gran colapso tecnológico

Is the AI Bubble Bursting?

Overview of Concerns in AI Investment

  • The discussion opens with a reference to an article from the Financial Times, highlighting concerns about a potential bubble in artificial intelligence (AI) due to significant spending by major tech companies amounting to $660 billion.
  • A critical question arises: Is the AI bubble bursting, and if so, where is it manifesting? This sets the stage for analyzing market dynamics.

Market Dynamics and Data Ownership

  • Investors are particularly focused on Bitcoin's value dropping below $65,000, which reflects broader anxieties in tech investments. The fear of losing substantial investments is palpable.
  • There’s a growing fear of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) regarding data ownership and processing capabilities that have historically created barriers to entry for competitors in industries dominated by firms like S&P Global and Moody's.

Transformation of Data Value

  • With advancements such as Antropy's Cloud Opus 4.6 model, AI can now synthesize regulatory and market data rapidly, diminishing the intrinsic value of raw data itself; speed and efficiency become paramount instead.
  • The conversation shifts towards disintermediation—how traditional software companies face risks as AI tools begin to replace their services directly, leading to potential obsolescence.

Impact on Traditional Software Companies

  • Traditional legal or accounting software firms are at risk as they attempt to integrate AI into their offerings but may find themselves overshadowed by more advanced solutions provided by companies like OpenAI or Google.
  • An analogy is drawn comparing current trends in app development with past experiences where native applications rendered third-party apps redundant—highlighting how quickly technology can shift competitive landscapes.

Future Implications for Businesses

  • The speaker emphasizes that businesses relying on complex implementations of traditional software (like SAP or Oracle) may struggle as new AI-driven solutions emerge that require less human intervention for deployment and operation.
  • There's a looming threat described as "creative destruction," where established companies must adapt or risk becoming obsolete—drawing parallels with historical examples like Kodak and Nokia facing disruptive innovations.

The Impact of AI on Traditional Business Models

Shift in Client Expectations

  • Companies are moving towards paying for completed tasks rather than software licenses, indicating a significant shift in client expectations.
  • There is a demand for finished products such as financial analyses and debugged code, reflecting a desire for efficiency over traditional processes.

The Threat of Automation

  • The rise of AI poses risks to junior analysts, as tools can perform tasks that previously took days in mere seconds.
  • Concerns arise about the legal implications of automation replacing compliance and drafting roles, leading to potential job displacement.

Evolution of Software Development

  • Tools like Cloud Code and Codex enable less technically skilled individuals to create complex applications, changing the landscape of software development.
  • Consulting firms may face challenges as AI generates professional-grade presentations and data processing instantly, reducing billable hours.

Integration vs. Competition with AI

  • Companies must integrate AI into their core offerings instead of viewing it as a threat; failure to do so could lead to obsolescence.
  • Businesses now compete not just with peers but also against rapid advancements from companies like Antropic and OpenAI.

Financial Market Reactions

  • Current market trends show fluctuations in major indices alongside Bitcoin's performance, highlighting investor sentiment amidst technological changes.

Dilemmas Facing Traditional Software Models

Monetization Challenges

  • A key dilemma arises from the shift in monetization models; traditional software companies face threats if they cannot adapt pricing strategies.
  • If AI agents can replace multiple human roles, businesses will purchase fewer licenses, impacting revenue streams significantly.

Structural Changes Ahead

  • The need for software companies to transition from user-based licensing to results-based pricing is critical for survival.

The Future Landscape: Data Infrastructure Over Applications

Democratization of AI Technology

  • As the cost of developing AI decreases due to open-source technologies, barriers for large enterprises diminish significantly.

Investment Shifts Towards Data Management

  • Investors are moving funds from traditional software promises toward tangible infrastructure solutions that manage data effectively.

Energy Consumption Considerations

  • The massive energy requirements for running AI systems highlight the importance of investing in physical data centers over application development.

The Evolution of Technology and Capitalism

The Significance of the 286 Computer

  • The focus is not on Windows but rather on the introduction of the 286 computer, highlighting its pivotal role in technological advancement.
  • Emphasis is placed on identifying who will manufacture the 286, suggesting that hardware development is crucial before software considerations.

Data Centers as a Core Component

  • Current discussions center around data centers, asserting their necessity for effective solutions in technology.
  • A contrast is drawn between healthy market corrections and destructive economic bubbles, with 73% of stocks being oversold.

Opportunities Amidst Economic Challenges

  • Despite claims of an economic bubble bursting, there remains a historical high price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio of 40), indicating potential opportunities.
  • Companies are expected to leverage AI agents for increased profitability, reducing reliance on user-based software licenses.

Creative Destruction and Technological Survival

  • Big tech companies are absorbing innovation while facing competition; this leads to a creative destruction within capitalism.
  • Only those controlling data flow and infrastructure will survive the industrialization phase driven by AI advancements.

The Promise of Abundance vs. Purposeful Living

  • A new narrative emerges about living without purpose due to promised abundance; however, this raises questions about individual desires for meaningful existence.
  • Concerns arise regarding how many choices will truly be available amidst perceived abundance; scarcity may still dictate access to certain products or experiences.

Implications of Automation and Machine Interaction

  • Speculation exists about machines potentially compensating humans financially as automation replaces traditional jobs.
  • Recent developments show machines evolving from passive observers to active participants in tasks traditionally performed by humans.

Capitalism's Evolution Towards Communism?

  • There’s a discussion about whether current trends indicate an evolution from capitalism towards a form resembling communism, characterized by product abundance yet limited choice.

The Implications of a New Economic Model

The Concept of Technoligarchy

  • The speaker discusses the lack of desired products in Venezuela, suggesting a shift towards a model reminiscent of Sauron’s "one ring" that governs all and subjugates individuals to a technoligarchy.

A Shift Towards Communism?

  • There is an assertion that the emerging economic model may be more communist than traditional communism, offering endless entertainment but lacking purpose in life.

Automation and Consumer Needs

  • The discussion highlights how technology companies like Elon Musk's are proposing a new form of submission where machines fulfill consumer needs based on their interpretations rather than individual desires.

Illusion of Choice

  • The narrative suggests that while consumers may perceive they have choices due to deflation and abundance, these choices are limited to what corporations decide to offer.

Control Over Production Materials

  • Concerns arise about the materials used for products; consumers might receive items made from recycled materials instead of their preferred options, reflecting corporate control over production standards.

Digital Surveillance and Compliance

  • The speaker warns that digital identities and bank accounts will dictate product availability, emphasizing compliance with green criteria over personal preferences.

Reflection on Current Trends

  • A reflection on recent events in AI and Bitcoin indicates a growing awareness that society is being lured into an economic model not aligned with public interests but rather those of elite technocrats.

Historical Parallels with Sauron’s Ring

  • Drawing parallels with "The Lord of the Rings," the speaker cautions against trusting elites who promise improved lives through technological advancements while concealing their true intentions.

Questioning Elite Promises

  • The final thoughts challenge listeners to consider what they truly gain from promises made by technocrats or governments, urging skepticism towards claims that technology will enhance quality of life.
Video description

Estalla la burbuja de la IA: todo lo que está pasando alrededor del gran colapso tecnológico Una pregunta ha recorrido los mercados durante toda la noche: ¿está empezando a estallar la burbuja de la inteligencia artificial? El interrogante se ha intensificado tras el dato que destacaba Financial Times: las grandes tecnológicas destinan ya 660.000 millones de dólares a gasto en IA, una cifra que vuelve a encender las alarmas sobre una posible burbuja. El nerviosismo se traslada también a los activos de riesgo. El Bitcoin ha vuelto a perder el nivel de los 65.000 dólares, cotizando en torno a los 64.900, en un mercado que busca señales claras sobre dónde podría estar produciéndose el ajuste si finalmente la burbuja pincha. El temor de fondo no es solo financiero, sino estructural. Los inversores empiezan a descontar una disrupción profunda en industrias que durante décadas han levantado sólidas barreras de entrada alrededor del dato y del software. Empresas dominantes en información financiera, análisis y servicios especializados han basado su ventaja competitiva en poseer los datos y las herramientas para procesarlos, un modelo que ahora queda cuestionado. El punto de inflexión ha llegado con los últimos avances en modelos de inteligencia artificial empresarial. Con soluciones capaces de sintetizar información regulatoria, financiera y de mercado en segundos, el dato deja de ser el activo diferencial y se convierte en una commodity. El valor ya no está en poseer la información, sino en actuar más rápido que el resto, una tarea que la IA ejecuta sin intervención humana. El segundo frente de riesgo es el software especializado. Sectores como el legal, el contable o el financiero se enfrentan a una amenaza directa: servicios que antes requerían plataformas complejas, licencias por usuario y consultores externos pueden ahora ser sustituidos por modelos avanzados de IA que entregan directamente el resultado final. El mercado empieza a asumir que muchas compañías pasarán de vender licencias a competir con herramientas que cobran por tareas completadas. Este cambio pone en jaque al modelo tradicional de software como servicio (SaaS). Si un solo agente de IA puede realizar el trabajo de varios empleados, las empresas necesitarán menos licencias, menos asientos y menos horas facturables. El riesgo, advierten los analistas, es un colapso de ingresos incluso en compañías tecnológicamente avanzadas, simplemente porque el modelo de monetización queda obsoleto. #ia #empleo #empresa #economia #internacional #inversion #geopolitica #bigtech #vizner #negociostv Si quieres entrar en la Academia de Negocios TV, este es el enlace: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwd8Byi93KbnsYmCcKLExvQ/join Síguenos en directo ➡️ https://bit.ly/2Ts9V3p Suscríbete a nuestro canal: https://bit.ly/3jsMzp2 Suscríbete a nuestro segundo canal, másnegocios: https://n9.cl/4dca4 Visita Negocios TV https://bit.ly/2Ts9V3p Más vídeos de Negocios TV: https://youtube.com/@NegociosTV Síguenos en Telegram: https://t.me/negociostv Síguenos en Instagram: https://bit.ly/3oytWnd Twitter: https://bit.ly/3jz6Lpt Facebook: https://bit.ly/3e3kIuy 🔞Exención de responsabilidad: Toda la información, material y / o contenido incluido en este programa es sólo para fines informativos y educativos. Invertir en acciones, opciones y futuros es arriesgado y no es adecuado para todos los inversores. Consulte a su propio asesor financiero independiente antes de tomar cualquier decisión de inversión. Negocios TV no se hace responsable de las opiniones expresadas en el vídeo.