RFF Event | Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C

Name: RFF Event | Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C
Uploaded: 2026-04-07T19:39:56.000Z
Duration: 2 h 28 min 13 s

Global Energy Outlook 2006, 2026: An Introduction

Overview of the Event

Billy Pizer, president and CEO of Resources for the Future (RFF), welcomes attendees to the Global Energy Outlook event.

The event aims to harmonize various global energy outlooks, focusing on security, affordability, and emissions.

The first version of this outlook was published in 2013; RFF has been releasing it annually for seven years.

Key Themes and Challenges

Today's discussion emphasizes long-term energy projections related to climate goals.

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is increasingly viewed as nearly impossible.

Growing electricity demand and new technologies present significant challenges for achieving climate objectives.

Policy Implications and Support

Importance of Robust Policies

Addressing climate goals requires strong policies that balance affordability and security alongside environmental concerns.

Call for Support

Pizer thanks RFF supporters for making events possible and encourages others to contribute financially.

Logistics and Audience Engagement

Event Structure

Daniel Raimi introduces logistics for the webinar, including chat engagement and Q&A features.

Audience Interaction

Attendees are encouraged to introduce themselves via chat while technical issues should be reported there.

Report Highlights Presentation

Introduction by Emily Joiner

Emily Joiner will present highlights from this year's report after Daniel's introduction.

Background on Energy Outlook Reports

Each year, various organizations publish long-term energy outlook reports with differing methodologies that complicate comparisons.

RFF standardizes data into common units like quadrillion British thermal units (quads), facilitating clearer analysis across different reports.

Global Energy Outlook: Key Insights and Themes

Differences in Energy Outlooks

The global energy outlook highlights differences in units and assumptions regarding energy content for fuels and renewables, which can impact comparisons when scaled to the global energy system.

To facilitate accurate comparisons, the outlook harmonizes estimates from various providers, allowing for a clearer understanding of differing viewpoints among them.

Scenario Categories

The report categorizes scenarios into three groups:

Six reference scenarios based on existing policies.

Six evolving policy scenarios reflecting announced policies or recent trends.

Ambitious climate scenarios aligned with a goal of limiting warming to 2°C by century's end.

Exclusion of 1.5°C Scenarios

This year’s analysis excludes 1.5°C scenarios due to feasibility concerns; many such scenarios are no longer updated by their providers.

The report emphasizes that while it is labeled as the 2026 outlook, the analyzed data reflects developments up until early 2025, excluding impacts from significant events like US military actions.

Comparative Analysis Themes

Five key themes emerge from the comparative analysis:

Current emissions trajectories indicate that exceeding 1.5°C warming is likely.

Global energy demand continues to rise significantly, with upward revisions in projections through to 2050.

Regional Divergence and Future Projections

There is a notable divergence in energy demand across regions; differences exist between Asia-Pacific/Africa and the Americas/Europe concerning fossil fuel demand and usage sectors like transportation.

Wind and solar power are projected to dominate electricity generation by accounting for over half of global electricity production by 2050 across most scenarios.

Emissions Trajectories

CO2 emissions reached over 38 million metric tons in 2024; despite some progress, most projections suggest emissions will peak between 2030 and 2035.

Achieving net-zero emissions would require an annual reduction of approximately 13.4%, contrasting sharply with COVID-19's only temporary drop of about 5% in emissions during its peak year.

Historical Emissions Intensity Trends

Historical data shows a decline in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per $1,000 GDP), indicating improvements despite rising total emissions; this trend began before climate policy became a priority.

Drivers Behind Carbon Intensity Reduction

Key factors contributing to reduced carbon intensity include advancements in energy efficiency post-oil shocks, growth in nuclear/wind/solar power, and effective climate policies primarily seen in Europe.

Future Electricity Generation Projections

From historical data (2000 vs. projected future), electricity generation has doubled globally; future projections vary widely depending on scenario types—ranging from a modest increase under reference scenarios to doubling under ambitious climate goals.

Renewable Energy Contributions

All future scenarios anticipate renewables leading new generation increases; wind and solar are expected to contribute significantly (40%-72%) towards total generation by 2050 while coal declines across all models.

Electricity Generation Projections Through 2050

Overview of Electricity Demand Growth

The global electricity demand projection for 2050 has been significantly revised upward due to factors like the AI boom, electrification of transportation, and increased air conditioning usage.

Comparison of Outlooks

The demand for data centers is expected to double from 2024 to 2030. Recent projections indicate a rise in electricity generation by 7,000 to 8,000 terawatt hours compared to estimates from three years ago, marking a 16.5% increase.

Regional Coal Consumption Trends

By 2024, coal consumption in the East will be nearly six times that of the West. While coal use declines in both regions, the pace varies; China leads with a projected decline of up to 60% by 2050.

U.S. Coal Trajectory

In the U.S., coal generation is expected to fall more than 75% under most scenarios, highlighting differing trajectories between Eastern and Western coal policies.

Shifts in Oil Demand

World oil demand is increasingly driven by Eastern countries. China's oil demand may decrease as its vehicle fleet electrifies while India's demand could more than double under reference scenarios.

Natural Gas Demand Insights

Natural gas demand shows less stark contrasts regionally; it grows over time in the East but remains flat or declines slightly in the West. India stands out with significant growth potential.

Wind and Solar Energy Growth

Future Projections for Renewable Energy

Wind and solar energy are projected to more than double their generation capacity by 2050 across all scenarios, potentially accounting for up to 72% of global electricity generation.

Policy Implications on Growth Rates

Sustained policy support will be crucial for maintaining growth rates in wind and solar energy; recent policy shifts can significantly impact deployment trajectories.

Transportation Sector Energy Use

Current and Future Energy Demands

Transportation accounts for about 30% of global final energy demand. Projections show a range from approximately 83 to 155 quads by 2050 due to uncertainties around technology adoption and economic growth.

Electrification Trends

Although oil remains dominant (declining from a share of 90% in 2024), electricity's role increases within transport energy mixes as efficiency gains offset travel demands particularly in Western regions.

Climate Policy and Future Targets

Uncertainties in EV Adoption and Global Policies

The pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is uncertain, particularly due to reduced federal incentives in the US.

Growth in aviation and freight transport presents additional challenges for climate policy.

Diverging policies across global regions complicate unified climate action efforts.

The speed of global fleet turnover is a critical factor influencing emissions reduction strategies.

Transitioning to New Climate Targets

Billy Pizer emphasizes that the world is unlikely to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, prompting a reevaluation of targets.

Policymakers may need to consider new metrics beyond simple temperature targets, potentially adopting a complex matrix approach.

The concept of net zero remains significant; it can be applied at various levels—countries, companies, or individuals.

Understanding Overshoot

"Overshoot" refers to exceeding a temperature target before returning back down, which could involve negative emissions technologies.

This idea suggests that we might peak above 1.5 degrees but aim to return through technological interventions like solar radiation modification.

Insights from International Climate Negotiations

Jennifer Haverkamp argues against revising existing climate targets like 1.5 and 2 degrees during negotiations, as they were always aspirational goals.

She highlights the consensus-based nature of decision-making within the Paris Agreement, making it difficult for vulnerable states to abandon these targets without significant consequences for their survival.

Negotiating Climate Targets: A Strategic Perspective

The Role of Negotiators in Climate Agreements

The speaker suggests that revising climate targets may not be the best use of negotiators' time, especially amidst current geopolitical issues like the Iran war and the Trump administration. Future reassessment might occur as AI's impact on electricity demand becomes clearer.

There is a recognition that while 2050 is a challenging target for net zero emissions, it is reasonable to consider when realistic targets should be set. Current temperature targets are science-based but not legally binding.

The speaker emphasizes that negotiators should focus on implementation, resilience, and adaptation under the Paris Agreement rather than revising existing targets. Other institutions have adopted similar mid-century net zero goals.

Concerns about a domino effect arise if countries withdraw from established targets, potentially undermining collective ambition in domestic policies related to climate action.

Energy Policy and Industrial Strategy

Intersection of Energy Policy and Climate Strategy

Sarah's work focuses on the intersection of energy policy and industrial strategy globally, particularly within the U.S., prompting questions about how climate considerations fit into future strategies beyond current administrations.

Traditionally, energy and climate policies were seen as separate; however, there’s a movement towards aligning them with broader economic factors such as production types and industry presence.

Diversification in Energy Supply

The concept of energy industrial strategy includes caring about both the type of energy used and its source. This diversification is crucial for both oil/gas security and clean technology supply chains.

The speaker highlights advancements in energy technologies as positive developments for energy security, resilience, and climate action. This progress supports economic competitiveness through an advanced energy system.

Legislative Framework Supporting Clean Technology

Post-administration efforts focus on friend-shoring strategies related to clean technology manufacturing. Key legislative acts like the Inflation Reduction Act represent significant investments aimed at enhancing U.S. capabilities in clean tech sectors.

The Inflation Reduction Act alongside other infrastructure laws marks unprecedented investment levels in U.S. energy strategy, aiming to bolster industrial capacity while addressing critical mineral supply chains essential for future technologies.

The Future of Energy Markets and Clean Power

Optimism for Clean Electric Power Sector

The speaker expresses a positive outlook for the future, emphasizing the need for a sophisticated and diversified clean electric power sector in the U.S. to compete in the AI race.

Advanced Manufacturing and Mineral Supply Chains

There is a call for advanced manufacturing across the electrotech industrial stack, highlighting the importance of diversifying critical mineral supply chains as part of climate policy evolution.

Impact of Current Events on Energy Strategy

Acknowledgment of extraordinary times in energy markets due to recent news from the White House, indicating potential volatility in energy prices.

Inquiry into how ongoing conflicts will influence medium to long-term energy strategies, particularly for major importing countries in Europe and Asia.

Economic Perspectives on Energy Security

Discussion on security premiums related to oil disruptions, suggesting that current geopolitical tensions have increased these premiums significantly.

Recognition that different regions are experiencing varying impacts from energy price fluctuations; while some areas face severe challenges, others like the U.S. are managing relatively well.

Long-Term Changes in Energy Landscape

The potential for electric vehicles and renewable technologies to reduce reliance on fossil fuels is highlighted as a significant shift over the next 25 years.

Countries investing early in non-emitting technologies are reportedly more resilient against market shocks, indicating a trend towards integrating security considerations into energy policies.

Strategic Investments and Policy Integration

Emphasis on weaving together various aspects of industrial policy rather than treating them separately; recognizing path dependency in economic decisions.

Importance of making strategic investments now to shape a favorable future landscape within clean energy economies.

Resilience Against Supply Disruptions

Observations about increasing frequency and duration of supply disruptions; economies are becoming more resilient with better technology options available.

Decision-Making Challenges Ahead

Key questions arise regarding decision-making pace: balancing short-term pain alleviation with long-term resilience building amidst stretched resources globally.

Energy Policy and Geopolitical Impacts

The Role of Policy in Energy Transition

There are numerous reasons hindering energy transition, many of which can be addressed through more aggressive policy actions rather than just investments.

Transportation electrification is expected to accelerate due to current geopolitical conflicts, but there is also potential for exploring industrial heat opportunities as a cost-effective measure.

Strategic Considerations in Energy Security

The possibility of not having a functional Strait of Hormuz poses significant challenges; diversifying away from oil and gas won't happen quickly.

Questions arise about whether countries will explore domestic fossil fuel sources instead of relying on imported LNG or oil due to disruptions caused by conflict.

Domestic Resource Exploration Trends

Countries may reconsider fracking or seek offshore reserves closer to home as alternatives to international energy dependence.

Observations suggest that while diversification has security value, reliance on imports exposes countries to macroeconomic shocks.

Economic Implications of Energy Dependence

The economic impact of energy imports includes paying higher prices outside the country, which can harm local economies despite efforts at diversification.

Shifting away from oil and gas too aggressively could lead to significant costs; thus, creating shock absorbers and reducing vulnerabilities will take time.

Coal Usage and Long-term Strategies

Increased coal usage is already being observed as a response to current energy demands; countries that maintained their coal facilities are benefiting from this trend.

Developing domestic oil and gas production capabilities requires long-term commitment; it’s not feasible for all nations to rapidly pivot towards these resources without prior infrastructure.

Reflections on Multilateral Institutions

The deterioration of multilateral institutions predates recent events, with issues arising since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014.

Despite violations of international norms by some countries, those norms do not disappear; ongoing challenges highlight the need for resilient global governance structures.

How Do Countries Respond to Global Disruptions?

International Reactions and Institutional Resilience

The future of international institutions remains uncertain as countries grapple with global disruptions. Questions arise about whether nations will follow or condemn actions taken by others.

Despite challenges, there is a belief that no vacuum will exist; new structures will emerge if current ones falter. For instance, the European Union collaborates on trade initiatives despite the WTO's recent setbacks.

The UN Climate Change Conference (UNCCC) is expected to endure without U.S. participation, showcasing its resilience and ongoing implementation phase through various subnational collaborations.

The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from Global Institutions

The absence of U.S. leadership in Bretton Woods institutions poses significant issues, particularly as the country has historically played a crucial role in negotiations.

There is optimism that an international system will evolve over time, similar to post-WWII developments driven by necessity for order amidst chaos.

Fragmentation and Future Cohesion

As fragmentation increases globally, questions arise about restoring a cohesive international order akin to "putting Humpty Dumpty back together again."

If cohesion proves unattainable, discussions focus on how countries can progress in energy and climate change initiatives despite these challenges.

Navigating Uneven Playing Fields

A sports analogy illustrates the uneven playing field in global governance where some nations may exploit rules while others adhere strictly to them, creating an opportunistic yet dangerous environment.

This search for equilibrium highlights the need for clarity on global rules and norms amid shifting dynamics between major powers like China and the United States.

Seeking New Equilibrium Amidst Change

Historical precedents suggest that new equilibria can be found after periods of disruption; however, these transitions are often fraught with danger.

Future diplomacy may shift towards more grassroots approaches rather than top-down solutions as traditional structures become less effective in addressing contemporary challenges.

Reflections on Climate Diplomacy

The evolving landscape necessitates establishing guardrails around critical issues as technological disruptions reshape our world beyond recognition.

While specific answers remain elusive regarding future governance structures, acknowledging the complexities of this transitional period is essential for navigating upcoming challenges effectively.

Technological Advancements and Policy Creativity in Energy

The Pace of Technological Change

The current pace of technological advancement is remarkable, with a focus on electric vehicles (EVs) being sidelined by many discussions.

AI's Role in Climate Solutions

There is curiosity about using AI, like ChatGPT, to address climate change; while it may not have answers now, future advancements could yield solutions or consume excessive energy.

Market Structures and Electricity Sector Challenges

Current electricity market structures are outdated and do not accommodate emerging technologies or the rapid growth expected in the sector. Affordability remains a critical concern.

Solar Geoengineering: Prospects and Concerns

Interest in solar geoengineering is growing; there’s hope that its risks will never outweigh its benefits. However, research into its effects is necessary despite proposed bans in several states.

A new coalition called the Solar Geoengineering Research Governance Platform aims to create transparent monitoring tools for geoengineering research rather than just ethical guidelines.

Policy Creativity Amidst Regulatory Changes

Transportation policy must adapt as existing regulatory frameworks become less stable; there's a need for innovative policy solutions that reflect current realities rather than past norms.

Emphasizing creativity in policy-making can lead to better outcomes during this transformative period. The U.S. electric power system requires significant reform to meet modern needs effectively.

There's an opportunity to rethink energy policies related to transportation aggressively, aligning them with future trends such as autonomous driving and multimodal transport systems.

This structured summary captures key insights from the discussion on technological advancements and their implications for energy policy while providing timestamps for easy reference.

Solar Geoengineering and Overshoot: Key Discussions

Overview of Solar Geoengineering

The discussion begins with a focus on solar geoengineering and its connection to the concept of overshoot, prompting insights from Billy about the urgency of addressing these technologies.

Personal Journey into Solar Geoengineering

Billy shares his initial skepticism towards solar geoengineering, noting that he became interested not because it was a good idea but due to its inevitability in discussions among environmental organizations over the past decade.

Urgency and Governance Challenges

He emphasizes that the issue is pressing, indicating that responses to climate change are needed sooner than expected, rather than waiting until the end of the century.

Billy highlights that global consensus through organizations like the UN may not be feasible; instead, individual countries might take unilateral actions if they perceive insufficient responses to climate threats.

Strategic Planning for Future Responses

He advocates for proactive thinking regarding potential response strategies to solar geoengineering deployment, including considerations around attribution and national security implications.

Potential Risks and Side Effects

While acknowledging solar geoengineering as a tool to mitigate severe climate outcomes, Billy expresses concern over unknown side effects associated with such interventions.

Global Governance Issues

Jennifer adds that global agreement is not necessary for deploying solar geoengineering technologies; even rogue states or wealthy individuals could initiate deployment without international consent.

Private Sector Involvement

She mentions a private company developing particles for solar geoengineering, which aims to position itself as a key player when countries decide to implement these technologies.

Climate Diplomacy Opportunities

Sarah notes that this area presents significant opportunities for climate diplomacy. She suggests shifting focus from clean energy deployment towards more serious discussions on emerging technologies like solar geoengineering.

Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from Climate Negotiations

The conversation shifts towards the implications of the U.S. withdrawing from international climate negotiations. Sarah questions whether any nation benefits from this withdrawal.

Perspectives on Winners and Losers

Jennifer argues no one truly wins from this situation; however, some petro-states might find it easier to resist clean energy transitions without U.S. pressure.

China's Potential Leadership Role

There’s speculation about China stepping into a leadership role left by the U.S., potentially positioning itself positively among developing nations affected by climate impacts.

Discussion on Climate Change and Institutional Resilience

Financial Interests in Climate Change

The speaker reflects on the potential financial interests of countries, particularly petro-states, in a warmer world, suggesting that while there may be economic advantages, it is a risky perspective.

Challenges to Current Environmental Frameworks

Acknowledgment of fundamental challenges to existing environmental structures like the Paris Agreement and Framework Convention, indicating that these frameworks are being critically examined.

The current approach to climate change has not been fully successful; this may prompt exploration of alternative models and pathways for addressing climate issues.

Optimism Amidst Challenges

One participant expresses a generally optimistic outlook despite tough circumstances, highlighting the importance of maintaining hope within challenging discussions at RFF.

Another speaker agrees with the optimism shared by Billy, emphasizing that institutions do not simply disappear but often reinvent themselves to remain relevant and effective.

Importance of Continued Dialogue

Concerns are raised about the negative impact if discussions around climate issues cease; losing time could hinder progress in preparing for future challenges related to UNFCCC matters.

The need for institutions to adapt rather than become obsolete is emphasized; they should evolve to meet new demands without losing their core functions.

Legal Considerations Regarding UNFCCC Rejoining

A legal question arises regarding whether a future U.S. administration can rejoin the UNFCCC after withdrawal under Trump; context provided about treaty ratification requirements involving Senate approval.

Jennifer discusses uncertainties surrounding treaty withdrawal and rejoining processes, noting that constitutional silence exists on these matters.

She references legal scholarship arguing that Senate advice does not expire unless explicitly stated otherwise, suggesting potential pathways for rejoining based on past precedents with other treaties.

Anticipation of litigation if a future president attempts to rejoin UNFCCC is noted; clarity on this issue may emerge through legal challenges as well as procedural requirements tied to joining Paris Agreement again.

Conclusion and Acknowledgments

The session concludes with gratitude expressed towards speakers Jennifer, Billy, and Sarah for their valuable insights during the discussion. Information about recording availability is also mentioned.

Post-Event Survey Encouragement

Importance of Feedback

The speaker encourages participants to fill out a post-event survey that will appear at the end of the webinar.

The purpose of the survey is to gather feedback to improve future events organized by RFF.

Emphasis is placed on understanding participant preferences, aiming to provide more of what attendees want and less of what they do not.

The speaker expresses gratitude towards all participants for their involvement in the event.