Vanderbilt Summit Keynote Modern Conflict and the Future of Research

Introduction of Keynote Speaker

The speaker, Dr. Gil Herrera, is introduced as the director of research at the National Security Agency and a member of the U.S national Quantum initiative advisory committee.

Key Points

• Dr. Gil Herrera is the director of research at the National Security Agency.

• He is a member of the U.S national Quantum initiative advisory committee.

• The committee advises on matters concerning Quantum information science.

Future Conflict and Research

Dr. Herrera discusses how research has evolved in relation to conflict over time.

Key Points

• During late 19th and early 20th centuries, research began to influence military and economic conflict.

• Large corporations funded scientific research at universities and used results in their products.

• New industries emerged from Research Laboratories such as General Electric's industrial research lab founded in 1900.

• US government created organizations such as Naval Observatory, National Bureau of Standards, and National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics before World War One.

• World War One demonstrated importance of scientific research to conflict with innovations such as airplane tank truck submarine radio machine gun and chemical munitions.

• Interwar period saw an increase in US government funding for university research contracts with industry leading to creation of Cipher Bureau (predecessor to NSA), Naval Research Laboratory, Bell Labs, and expansion in aviation research.

• Scientific research led to new industries that enabled US to have largest economy while military increased investments.

Conducting Research in Modern Conflict

Dr. Herrera talks about conducting policy-based research in modern conflict.

Key Points

• Talk will focus on policy talk about conduct of emerging technology-based research within context of modern conflict

• Will not spend much time talking about AIML or quantum or other emerging technologies but will take questions about those.

• Research has evolved to support conflict, both kinetic and non-kinetic.

• Talk will focus on the conduct of research in emerging technology within context of modern conflict.

The Impact of Scientific Research in World War II

This section discusses the impact of scientific research on both sides during World War II, and how it changed the relationship between science and government.

Key Research Transitions

• Penicillin, proximity fuse, radar, electromechanical encryption and crypt analysis, analog computers, rocketry, and nuclear weapons were all key research transitions that had a tremendous impact on the battlefield.

• These transitions allowed for rapid transition of research results into combat systems.

Vandever Bush's Impact

• Vandever Bush had the greatest impact on the relationship between research and the US government during World War II.

• He proposed the creation of a National Defense Research Committee which was created by executive order in 1940 by President Roosevelt.

• A year later he created the Office of Scientific Research and Development which was given almost unlimited access to funds and resources.

• Bush became its director and reported directly to the president.

Science: The Endless Frontier

• Science: The Endless Frontier is arguably the most influential policy document of the 20th century.

• It set the stage for major expansion of research during Cold War.

• Created a vision for how to sustain government funding for research after war both in context of defense research but also expanding it to include medical and fundamental general research in support of nation.

Expansion of Scientific Programs

• Federal funding enabled growth of scientific programs at US universities.

• Expansion of science and engineering workforce needed for post-war prosperity and national security needs.

The Impact of Cold War on Research and Innovation

This section discusses the impact of the Cold War on research and innovation in the United States.

Emergence of Research Centers

• The launch of Sputnik in 1957 led to the creation of DARPA and NASA, which initiated the Apollo program.

• The increased complexity of research in the post-World War II era required larger research teams and significant increases in laboratory equipment costs. This led to the creation of academic research centers by various organizations.

Globalization's Impact on Research

• Globalization significantly impacted how research was conducted, with a rapid increase in global research journals and conferences.

• The expansion and quality of US universities attracted foreign students from developing nations who would later contribute significantly to defense research, US economy, innovation hubs like Silicon Valley, Boston, and Austin.

Scientific Research During Cold War

• Bell Labs and IBM expanded their work during this period while other organizations emerged such as Xerox Palo Alto Research Complex.

• Federal investments in R&D peaked at 1.2% GDP during Reagan's defense buildup.

Post-Cold War Policy Changes

• Fukuyama predicted that liberal democracies would end conflict leading to a peace dividend demand by countries.

• Federal investment in research fell by 50% from 1987 to 1999 with a shift from defense to health research doubling NIH budget during Clinton administration.

Offshoring and Globalization

The offshoring of manufacturing has made the US military dependent on adversaries to make their weapons. Globalization has resulted in US technology companies becoming multinational enterprises with subsidiaries and customers in many countries, including adversary countries.

Impact of Offshoring

• Contract manufacturers offshore accelerated startups in Silicon Valley.

• Microelectronics and electronic assembly offshoring made US military systems dependent on adversaries.

• Globalization led to US technology companies becoming multinational enterprises.

Foreign Students

• Best foreign students continue to apply to US universities.

• Temporary visa holders earn more than half of the US doctoral degrees in STEM fields.

• Over half of STEM PhDs educated in the US will be foreign nationals.

Conflict in Cyberspace

The internet has changed the battlefield upon which modern conflict is waged. Active conflict exists today in cyberspace, where we have a combatant command for cyber that is not tied to a geographic location.

Changes Brought by the Internet

• The internet changed the battlefield upon which modern conflict is waged.

• Individuals and small groups can cause global disruption without leaving their home countries or parents' basements.

• Innovative commercial products and digital weapons can be developed quickly without developing infrastructure or supply chains.

Control Mechanisms for Modern Technologies

• The only government control mechanism for most modern technologies is regulatory, which lags behind technology development.

• Some potentially harmful technologies, like AI, are largely unregulated.

• Telecommunications regulations were written before the internet.

Future Research for National Security Programs

Future research in support of national security programs will be conducted under circumstances where US corporations invest about four times more than the US government in R&D. Most corporations are multinational with productions, operations, and research conducted globally.

Dependency on Supply Chains and Technologies

• Research will have a dependency on supply chains and technologies from adversary countries.

• Universities in China produce twice as many STEM PhDs as US universities produce in total.

• Adversaries engage in IP theft facilitated by the internet and AI will make it worse.

Adapting Research Practices for Modern Conflict

In this section, the speaker discusses the need to adapt research practices and policies related to research in order to maintain the military advantage that the United States has held for over a century.

Need for Adaptation

• The US needs to adapt existing practices and policies related to research.

• Research will necessarily be conducted on the battlefield as it is dependent upon information technologies and networks in cyberspace.

• Researchers must adopt verification and validation techniques, as well as employ exquisite cybersecurity and physical security practices.

• Security must be as important as instrument calibration, environmental controls, software validation, peer review, and other best research practices.

Updating Policies and Regulations

• US government policies and regulations regarding the conduct of research must be updated and kept up-to-date.

• An obsolete regulatory framework can inhibit US companies from performing research domestically that they can also perform at foreign affiliates.

• Overly aggressive export controls can give foreign competitors an advantage over US industry in the global marketplace.

Embracing Foreign Talent

• The US must embrace and utilize talent educated in our university system to the greatest extent possible.

• We must find inspiration for Gen Z that is proportional to the inspiration of previous generations (e.g., Apollo program).

• We need foreign talent to succeed; however, we must employ counterintelligence methodologies to find and remove adversary intelligence agents.

Ideal State for Future Research

• Research will provide the US with means to obtain technical advantage of emerging technologies and protect against the threat posed by these technologies.

• A proactive regulatory environment exists which protects the public and permits US industry to compete and exploit new technologies.

• The US government will have effective technology transition strategies to rapidly utilize research results from both US government labs and from industry.

Q&A Session

In this section, the speaker answers questions from the audience about science and its evolution.

The Search for Philosopher's Stone

• Robert Boyle and Isaac Newton were involved in experiments to find the Philosopher's Stone. The speaker wonders what would have happened if they had actually found it.

• The importance of the scientific method that has emerged over the last 400 years allows us to balance our need to embrace the impossible represented by the search for the Philosopher's Stone but also to be founded in scientific principles that'll help us get there.

Falsifiability and Scientific Method

• Falsifiability is one of the key innovations in scientific method, which was introduced by a philosopher named Popper.

• At the height of Scientific Revolution, scientists were referred to as natural philosophers because they engaged not just math but philosophy as well.

• Building a 10 billion dollar instrument unit on the border between Switzerland and France yielded discovery of Higgs boson because if it didn't, it would falsify the entirety of standard model physics.

Evolution of Science

• Our reliance on explanations beyond science is contracting as we expand our knowledge.

• Alfred Wallace who with Darwin came up with theory of evolution believed in seances.

• Some pitches in Quantum Computing do look like they require a little bit of Philosopher's Stone to make them real.

Conclusion

The Q&A session covered various topics related to science and its evolution. The speaker emphasized on how important it is to balance our need to embrace impossible ideas while being grounded in scientific principles. He also talked about falsifiability being one of the key innovations in scientific method introduced by a philosopher named Popper.

AIML and Quantum Computing

In this section, the speaker discusses the potential of AIML in science and the current state of quantum computing.

AIML's Potential in Science

• The speaker initially thought that AIML couldn't do science but is now beginning to wonder due to emergent properties that are evolving.

• OpenAI and GPT4 are not our biggest worries as innovators can take something not understood and poke and prod, leading to weird things coming out.

• Hallucinations sometimes yield technical advances, similar to genetic mutations in evolutionary biology.

Quantum Computing

• The speaker believes we will have a quantum computer sometime between 10 years and never.

• Verified applications for quantum computing are quite small, with the most significant being Shor's algorithm for breaking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography.

• Other proposed applications exist, but many don't have real-world applications yet.

• Challenges include complexities in scaling quantum computing like Moore's Law did for microelectronics.

Research at NSA

In this section, the speaker talks about research at NSA.

Research at NSA

• The speaker worked on scaling semiconductors with Moore's Law during his career.

• A virtuous cycle enabled by Moore's Law allowed companies to turn 20% of revenue into R&D to solve emerging problems in microelectronics.

Quantum Mechanics and Microelectronics

In this section, the speaker discusses the differences between quantum mechanics and microelectronics. He explains that while there are established theories and principles in microelectronics, there is no equivalent in quantum mechanics. This lack of a framework for relating physical phenomena to models is slowing progress in the field.

Device Physics and Computational Simulation

• The speaker explains that device physics and computational simulation are what enabled Moore's Law to be applied to microelectronics.

• However, these tools do not exist yet for quantum mechanics, which means that progress in the field is slower than it could be.

• The lack of a framework for relating physical phenomena to models means that researchers have to rely on trial-and-error methods.

Sharing Data with Academia and Industry

• The speaker acknowledges that sharing data with academia and industry is important but notes that compliance with federal laws related to privacy can be a challenge.

• While classification can also be an issue, simulated data can often be used instead.

• The speaker offers to discuss ways of sharing unclassified data sets with whoever raised the question.

Encouraging Foreign National PhD Students

• The speaker proposes allowing foreign national PhD students and postdocs to start their permanent resident application at the start of their programs rather than at the end.

• This would allow time for clearance before graduation, reducing incentives for students to leave after graduation.

• While this requires federal action rather than university action, it would help manage risks related to national security and IP theft.