CRT course part 7 end of CRT course 1080p
Understanding High Probability Trading Setups
Identifying High Probability Turtle Soups
- To successfully trade, it's crucial to know when and where high probability turtle soups form. If a turtle soup does not occur at the specified time, do not execute the trade.
- For example, if you anticipate a turtle soup at 3:00 a.m., but it occurs at 2:00 a.m., you should wait for the next setup instead of entering the trade. Filter your trades based on specific times like 3:00 a.m., 6:00 a.m., and 9:00 a.m.
- Additional times to consider include 1:00 a.m. There are more high probability setups available; backtesting will reveal these opportunities. Focus on the mentioned times for now as they align with CRT ranges forming at different hours.
Aligning CRT Ranges with Turtle Soups
- The alignment of CRT ranges and turtle soups is essential for successful trading strategies. For instance, if a CRT range forms on Monday, expect the turtle soup to occur on Tuesday or Wednesday due to potential inside bars on Tuesday.
- If a CRT forms on Friday at 5:00 p.m., anticipate that the corresponding turtle soup will happen on Monday morning around 3:00 a.m. This timing is critical for effective trading decisions.
Practical Examples in Forex and Futures
- In Forex trading, if you see that a CRT formed at 5:00 p.m., look for the turtle soup to perform around 3:00 a.m.; this pattern indicates distribution towards opposing ends of the range established by previous movements.
- A futures example shows that when observing charts, if there’s a CRT range formed at 10:00 p.m., expect the turtle soup around 1:00 a.m.; this consistency across time frames aids in predicting market behavior effectively.
Importance of Psychological Factors in Trading
- As we approach concluding thoughts, it's vital to incorporate psychological aspects into trading strategies alongside technical models and signatures; psychology can distinguish professional traders from beginners significantly.
- Implementing filters in your trading approach helps eliminate low probability trades which waste time and resources; focus solely on high probability setups to maximize capital efficiency and success rates in trading endeavors.
The Filter Approach Explained
- Many traders mistakenly categorize their best setups as "A+ setups" without realizing they should only execute those specific patterns consistently recognized during backtesting sessions; this clarity can enhance overall performance significantly among retail traders.
- It’s essential to filter out all other setups that do not meet your criteria; only engage with trades that align perfectly with your defined parameters—this discipline separates successful traders from novices who often act impulsively based on gut feelings rather than data-driven insights.
Setting Standards for Trading Success
Importance of RTR in CRT
- The speaker emphasizes the significance of having a proper Risk-to-Reward (RTR) ratio to achieve success with a Consistent Return on Trading (CRT).
- Establishing personal trading standards is crucial; traders should define their own acceptable RTR ratios, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 5:1.
- The speaker advises against settling for less than one's established trading standards, reinforcing discipline in trading practices.
- A specific example given is to only take three trades if one desires a 3:1 ratio, highlighting the importance of sticking to personal rules.
- Overall, the message stresses that adherence to set standards can lead to better trading outcomes and prevent impulsive decisions.