Investors FOMOing into Bitcoin is Killing Crypto At A Record Rate. | Altcoin Wyckoff Analysis

Altcoin Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the current state of the altcoin market and provides insights on how long the downturn may continue.

Reckoning of Altcoins

• The altcoin market has been consistently declining over the past 18 months.

• There are currently 26,000 altcoins in the space, making it challenging to identify which ones will succeed.

• It is important to be cautious when buying altcoins during this period of uncertainty.

Expectations for Altcoin Seasons

• The speaker believes that there is still more downside potential for altcoins before a new bull cycle begins.

• It is crucial to focus on technical analysis and charts rather than getting caught up in emotions or community sentiment.

• The number of altcoins has increased significantly compared to previous cycles, making it even harder to find successful projects.

Importance of Choosing Strong Projects

This section emphasizes the importance of investing in strong projects and avoiding wasting money on weak or unsuccessful ones.

Weakness of Many Altcoins

• Most altcoins tend to lose value against Bitcoin, making them less attractive investments.

• Many projects fail to live up to their expectations and end up dying off.

• Only a small percentage of projects survive in the long run.

Avoiding Wasting Money

• It is critical not to waste money on projects with unrealistic promises and dreams.

• Picking a successful project out of thousands requires exceptional skill or luck.

• Investing wisely at the beginning of a bull market can lead to better returns.

Bitcoin as Leading Indicator for Altcoins

This section explores how Bitcoin's performance can provide insights into the future direction of altcoins.

Bleeding Out of Altcoins

• Altcoins have been losing value compared to Bitcoin.

• While some altcoins may experience higher gains during a bull cycle, they may not reach their previous levels after bleeding out.

Choosing Strong Altcoins

• It is crucial to identify the strongest altcoins and stick with them throughout the next cycle.

• Analyzing charts and comparing altcoin performance against Bitcoin can help determine which projects are stronger.

Assessing Bitcoin's Next Moves

This section focuses on analyzing Bitcoin's potential future movements to gain insights into the overall market direction.

Bleed Out Continuation

• Many weaker altcoins are expected to continue bleeding out based on their higher percentage losses compared to Bitcoin.

• Filtering by Bitcoin can help identify which cryptocurrencies are likely to keep declining.

Anticipating Altcoin Market Collapse

This section addresses the anticipation of a potential collapse in the altcoin market based on Bitcoin's performance.

Waiting for a Pullback in Bitcoin

• Many people are eagerly waiting for a pullback in Bitcoin's price.

• The speaker has covered this topic in recent videos, discussing the possibility of a pullback and its implications for altcoins.

Analysis of Previous Upside Moves

The speaker discusses the previous upside moves in the market and analyzes the data to gain insights.

Previous Upside Moves

• In the past, every move to the upside from a low point has taken more than one week.

• Even during bear markets, there have been four-week and nine-week moves to the upside.

• Currently, we have only seen a one-week move to the upside.

• It is unlikely that anything significant will happen below 28,000 or 27,000 levels.

• Many people are waiting for a significant move below these levels, as anything less than that would only be a small percentage change.

Breakdowns Underneath Lows

The speaker examines breakdowns underneath lows and measures subsequent moves to gain insights into market behavior.

Breakdowns Underneath Lows

• There have been breakdowns underneath lows followed by subsequent moves upwards.

• These moves typically last for three weeks or longer.

• This pattern suggests that there may be further downside for altcoins against their Bitcoin value.

• While altcoins might not see much downside against the US dollar due to Bitcoin's upward movement, they are likely to experience downward pressure against their BTC value.

Mindset around Low Points

The speaker discusses the mindset around low points in the market and how it can impact altcoins.

Mindset around Low Points

• At each low point, there is a common belief that prices will go even lower.

• This mindset may apply to altcoins as well, as they continue to face downward pressure against Bitcoin's dominance.

• However, this mindset does not necessarily apply to Bitcoin itself since it is experiencing upward momentum based on raw data analysis.

Outlook for Altcoins

The speaker provides an outlook for altcoins and discusses the potential for further downside against Bitcoin.

Outlook for Altcoins

• Altcoins are likely to see further downside against their BTC value.

• While they may not experience significant downside against the US dollar due to Bitcoin's upward movement, their BTC value is expected to decline.

• Investors in altcoins are typically looking for higher returns, such as 5x or 10x gains, rather than small percentage changes.

Bitcoin Dominance Analysis

The speaker analyzes Bitcoin dominance and its impact on altcoin performance.

Bitcoin Dominance Analysis

• Bitcoin dominance refers to the market share of Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.

• Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to regain dominance during bear markets.

• In previous cycles, there have been periods of altcoin outperformance when money flows out of Bitcoin and into altcoins.

• Based on past patterns, it is possible that another period of altcoin outperformance may occur around quarter four of 2023.

Historical Patterns and Timelines

The speaker examines historical patterns and timelines related to altcoin seasons.

Historical Patterns and Timelines

• Previous cycles have shown that altcoin seasons tend to occur after a few quarters of Bitcoin dominance.

• There is a possibility that we may see another altcoin season around quarter four of 2023 based on past patterns.

• While exact replication is unlikely, these dates provide some context for potential intermediate pumps in the market.

• It is unlikely that a massive altcoin season will occur within the next 12 months.

Altcoin Performance in Recent Years

The speaker discusses recent trends in altcoin performance and highlights a five-month period of significant gains.

Altcoin Performance in Recent Years

• In the first quarter of 2021, altcoins experienced a solid five-month period of gains.

• Ethereum and other altcoins performed well during this period.

• While it may not be as far away as expected, a significant altcoin season is unlikely to occur in the near future.

The transcript provided does not include any timestamps beyond .

Market Dominance and Altcoin Potential

In this section, the speaker discusses the market dominance of cryptocurrencies and its impact on altcoins. They analyze previous cycles and provide insights into potential future trends.

Market Dominance Breakout

• The dominance of a cryptocurrency in the market has a significant impact on altcoins.

• The breakout level for dominance is around 56, with important levels at 58 and 60.

• Once these levels are reached, it may indicate a new narrative for altcoins and potentially lead to an increase in their value.

Importance of Narrative

• Pay attention to the narrative surrounding altcoins when dominance levels are hit.

• Previous cycles have shown that specific narratives can drive altcoin pumps.

• Understanding the narrative can help identify the best altcoins to trade during that time.

Removing Stable Coins from Dominance Calculation

• Without stable coins, the current dominance level is around 58.

• Levels above include 63 or 64 down to about 61.

• This exclusive Tia indicator provides additional insights into altcoin potential.

Wyckoff Schematic for Altcoins

The speaker introduces the Wyckoff schematic as a tool for analyzing altcoin potential. They explain different phases and highlight key points to understand while using this framework.

Understanding Wyckoff Schematic

• The Wyckoff schematic helps analyze different phases in the market.

• It shows lows, tests, signs of strength, and supply points.

• Following each phase can help understand accumulation patterns for Bitcoin.

Current Stage for Altcoins

• Altcoins may currently be in Phase B or Phase C according to the Wyckoff schematic.

• A potential spring test has been observed, but confirmation is needed before identifying an uptrend.

Importance of Confirmation

• Waiting for confirmation is crucial when using the Wyckoff schematic.

• Confirmation ensures a higher probability of an uptrend and faster gains.

• Many people make the mistake of buying at every dip without confirmation, leading to losses.

Patience and Confirmation in Altcoin Trading

The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and confirmation when trading altcoins. They discuss how impulsive buying without confirmation can lead to losses.

Importance of Patience

• Patience is key when trading altcoins.

• Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of buying at false lows and losing money.

Learning from Past Cycles

• Impulsive buying during previous cycles resulted in losses for many traders.

• Similar patterns have been observed in 2017 and previous cycles.

• Pay attention to where we currently stand in the market cycle.

Selecting Altcoins with Confirmation

• While some altcoins may show potential earlier on, it is safer to wait for confirmation before investing.

• Following a strategy that focuses on confirmed uptrends can lead to more successful trades.

The transcript provided was already in English, so no language conversion was necessary.

New Section

This section discusses the performance of old coins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, in relation to significant lows and highs. It explores the potential for a higher low in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Performance of Old Coins

• The significant low for old coins occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019.

• From that low, there was a 100% gain over a period of one year.

• The time from the all-time high to the second low was approximately two years.

• Currently, we are approaching the end of October 2023, which aligns with this timeframe.

• If this pattern continues, it could potentially be a higher low according to the Wyckoff schematic.

• It is important to note that these are speculative possibilities and confirmation is needed.

New Section

This section emphasizes the importance of making profits out of the middle market rather than trying to buy at exact lows and sell at exact tops. It also discusses how major altcoins may continue to decline while new cryptocurrencies and narratives emerge.

Making Profits in Altcoin Market

• The goal should be to make profits out of the middle market rather than timing exact lows and tops.

• The focus should be on accumulating during potential bottoming areas before significant runs occur.

• Major altcoins in the top 20 may continue to decline for some time.

• New cryptocurrencies and narratives that haven't been explored yet may present better trading opportunities.

• Confirmation through chart analysis will help determine which narratives are stronger.

New Section

This section examines specific altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin, highlighting their downward trends and lackluster performance compared to previous cycles.

Altcoin Performance: Solana and Dogecoin

Solana

• Solana's trend against Bitcoin is still downward, with lower highs and lower lows.

• Buying altcoins before they confirm an uptrend against Bitcoin is not recommended.

• After experiencing a blow-off top, it is unlikely for altcoins to perform similarly in the next cycle.

• Newer cryptocurrencies and narratives may offer better trading opportunities.

Dogecoin

• Dogecoin has been declining since Elon Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live, which marked the market's peak.

• The tweet from two years ago predicted the ongoing decline of Dogecoin.

• Patience is required when waiting for altcoins to reach potential buying levels.

New Section

This section discusses the need for confirmation in altcoin trends and explores potential emerging narratives such as Bitcoin ordinal narratives, layer twos, layer ones, entities, NFTs, and metaverse.

Confirmation and Emerging Narratives

• Altcoin trends require confirmation through chart analysis rather than relying solely on background developments.

• Emerging narratives include Bitcoin ordinal narratives, layer twos, layer ones, entities, NFTs, and metaverse.

• Confirmation will help determine which narrative will be stronger in the future.

The transcript ends here.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the behavior of old coins and the importance of identifying accumulation areas before entering into cryptocurrencies.

Old Coins Behavior

• Old coins experience short periods of pumping followed by longer periods of bleeding out.

• The speaker mentions a target zone set up two years ago that may need to be readjusted if the price falls below 90 satoshis.

Breakdown of Altcoins

• Altcoins, including BTC, have been continuously breaking down with lower highs and lower lows.

• The price is back in the previous accumulation area and shows no signs of slowing down.

Importance of Accumulation Area

• It is crucial to wait for an accumulation area to form with higher highs and higher lows before entering into cryptocurrencies.

• Even on the first pump, it is advisable to wait for a pullback and a higher low before buying.

Matic Breakdown

• Matic has experienced significant losses and is expected to come back to lower levels, possibly under 800 satoshis.

Tia Crypto Premium Membership

• The speaker introduces Tia Crypto Premium membership as a platform for studying past market cycles and forecasting future trends.

• Stacks (STX) is mentioned as a potential chart worth considering due to its formation of higher lows despite Bitcoin's stability.

Higher Lows Formation

• The speaker encourages viewers to share any other charts showing similar patterns with higher lows forming after pumps and dumps in the market.

• If Stacks or any other chart starts breaking down, it would indicate weakness in the market.

Conclusion

The transcript provides insights into the behavior of old coins, emphasizes the importance of accumulation areas, and highlights specific altcoins like Matic and Stacks. The speaker also introduces Tia Crypto Premium membership as a platform for studying market cycles.