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2025 Lecture Series - Turtle Soup Deferred Entry With -Rejection Block
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2025 Lecture Series - Turtle Soup Deferred Entry With -Rejection Block

Introduction and Overview What to Expect in Today's Session

Greeting and Context

  • The speaker greets the audience, expressing hope that they enjoyed their Passover holiday.
  • A brief mention of a Telegram channel where viewers can find important trading information, emphasizing the presence of fake channels.

Trading Setup Discussion

  • The focus shifts to analyzing the five-minute chart for NASDAQ's June delivery contract for 2025.
  • The speaker shares personal trading protocols after holidays, indicating a cautious approach due to a break from market activity.

Trading Insights and Methodology Understanding Market Dynamics

Trade Execution Explanation

  • Clarification that the showcased trade was executed on a demo account, adhering to teaching principles.
  • Emphasis on maintaining transparency regarding trading practices and future live broker statements.

Chart Analysis

  • Introduction of key concepts such as new week opening gaps and fair value gaps in market analysis.
  • Discussion on market behavior post-holiday, highlighting potential trade setups based on previous price action.

Market Behavior and Strategy Analyzing Price Movements

Breaker Concept

  • Explanation of the "breaker" concept in trading, referencing educational resources available for deeper understanding.
  • Identification of bearish breaker candlestick patterns as indicators for potential trades.

Market Conditions Impacting Trades

  • Discussion about buy-side imbalance and sell-side inefficiency affecting current market conditions.
  • Insight into how geopolitical factors are influencing market traction and trader decisions.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways

Summary of Trading Insights

  • Recap of hypothetical scenarios presented during the session, focusing on short-term highs/lows within bearish markets.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • The speaker discusses the impact of market wicks, indicating that significant damage occurred due to price movements. They emphasize the importance of recognizing these patterns in trading.
  • A strong assertion is made against claims that others have documented similar trading strategies before the speaker's release, highlighting a sense of originality in their approach.
  • The speaker mentions using multiple monitors to analyze various time frames and correlated markets, showcasing a comprehensive analytical strategy.

Trading Strategy Overview

  • The target level for trading is identified as 18,080, described as "low-hanging fruit," suggesting it’s an easily achievable objective based on market conditions.
  • Observations are made about market behavior during holiday weeks (like Passover/Easter), noting that volume can be unpredictable and affect trading outcomes.

Chart Analysis Techniques

  • Transitioning from a five-minute chart to a one-minute chart allows for more granular analysis. The speaker highlights specific candlestick formations that indicate potential market reversals.
  • A focus on rejection blocks is introduced; these are critical points where price action halts and reverses direction, which traders should monitor closely.

Advanced Trading Concepts

  • Discussion includes inversion fair value gaps and their significance in predicting price movements. These concepts are foundational for understanding market dynamics at play during trades.
  • The concept of deferred entries into trades is explained through turtle soup patterns, referencing established literature while clarifying the speaker's unique interpretation.

Preparing for Future Trades

  • Emphasis on understanding narrative within the market context is crucial; without this knowledge, traders may struggle with decision-making regarding entry points.
  • The speaker reassures followers about upcoming educational content in their book series while addressing inquiries about publication timelines. This indicates ongoing commitment to trader education.

Trading Insights and Strategies

Focus on Morning Session Opportunities

  • The speaker emphasizes trading within the morning session, particularly during the opening range or first hour, as a key area of opportunity for executing trades.
  • While the speaker has experience in various trading sessions (London, Asia, PM session), the primary focus remains on identifying simplistic patterns that repeat within a limited timeframe.

Addressing Criticism and Misunderstandings

  • The speaker acknowledges receiving condescending remarks about their teaching methods but insists on providing proof of effectiveness through demonstrated results.
  • They challenge critics to substantiate claims of rebranding or ineffectiveness with concrete evidence from literature or specific examples.

Community Engagement and Future Plans

  • The speaker expresses gratitude for community feedback and engagement, noting daily comments received on platforms like YouTube.
  • A plan is shared to limit live market calls to May only, indicating a shift in focus towards lectures and reviews post-May due to personal project commitments.

Protecting Intellectual Property

  • Concerns are raised about others copying analysis from their work without proper attribution, leading to a decision not to share specific trade setups publicly anymore.
  • The speaker mentions baiting copycats by removing watermarks from videos while maintaining confidence in their unique insights.

Analyzing Market Movements

  • Discussion includes analyzing market movements within the first 60 minutes of trading, focusing on rejection blocks and volume imbalances as critical indicators for potential trades.
  • The importance of understanding liquidity dynamics is highlighted; recognizing buy-side liquidity can inform better trading decisions.

Fair Value Gaps and Market Behavior

  • The concept of fair value gaps is introduced; these gaps often indicate areas where price will revisit based on historical behavior (90% likelihood).
  • Emphasis is placed on timing and context when assessing market conditions—whether it’s trending or consolidating—and how this affects trade decisions.

Market Analysis and Key Levels

Liquidity Market Dynamics

  • The liquidity market is experiencing a downward break, with attempts to engage at the breaker level. The focus is on the lowest down close candle, emphasizing the importance of using the entire range, including wicks, when analyzing breakers.
  • A significant level to watch is around 17,700. This level may be relevant for overnight trading or tomorrow's session. The speaker expresses optimism about this target being reached.

Volatility and Trading Conditions

Playlists: 2025 Lecture Series
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.