Is Tigray Returning to War?

Is Tigray on the Brink of a New Conflict?

Overview of the Current Situation

• The Ethiopian province of Tigray is facing renewed instability after a two-year civil war ended in November 2022 with peace talks in South Africa.

• There are concerns that this new crisis could escalate into a wider regional conflict, despite initial hopes for peace.

Challenges to Sustainable Peace

• Peace agreements often signify the end of fighting but do not guarantee lasting stability; they mark a transition to a new phase requiring sustainable peace-building efforts.

• The presence of "spoilers," factions, and external actors can undermine these efforts and potentially reignite violence.

Historical Context of Tigray's Conflict

• Ethiopia is highly diverse, with major ethnic groups including the Oromo, Amhara, Somali, and Tigrayan people (6% of the population), located in the northernmost province bordering Sudan and Eritrea.

• A brief history highlights Ethiopia's transition from a Marxist military regime post-1974 to federalism under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, where the TPLF became dominant.

Key Events Leading to Recent Conflicts

• Relations between the EPLF (Eritrean People's Liberation Front) and TPLF soured over border disputes leading to war in 1998; despite a ceasefire in 2000, tensions persisted.

• After Zenawi's death in 2012, Abiy Ahmed Ali became Prime Minister and sidelined the TPLF while resolving border issues with Eritrea—actions that angered many Tigrayans.

Escalation into Civil War

• In 2020, political tensions escalated into armed conflict when Abiy ordered military action against Tigray following an attack on barracks amid election disputes during COVID pandemic.

• The conflict saw significant involvement from Eritrean troops as well as shifts in control until peace talks were initiated after government forces regained territory by mid-2022.

Pretoria Agreement: Steps Towards Peace

• The Pretoria Agreement reached in November outlined key points:

• Recognition of Tigray as part of Ethiopia.

• Restoration of constitutional authority and establishment of interim governance.

• Disbandment of the TDF (Tigray Defense Forces) and withdrawal of foreign troops.

Overview of the Tigray Conflict and Its Aftermath

The Impact of War and Initial Peace Efforts

• After two years of conflict resulting in approximately 600,000 deaths, the group had to accept a peace deal due to dire humanitarian needs.

• Following the agreement, there was initial progress with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) surrendering heavy weapons and improved access to humanitarian aid.

Political Developments in Tigray

• An interim administration was established in April 2023 under Getachew Reda, a former Ethiopian Minister who had been a spokesperson for the TPLF during the war.

• Despite some advancements, millions still require assistance, with over a million displaced due to ongoing tensions between Tigray and Amhara province.

Ongoing Regional Tensions

• Eritrean troops remain present in Tigray, exacerbating tensions as they are accused of human rights abuses; their presence is seen as an infringement on Ethiopian sovereignty.

• Abiy Ahmed's threat to invade Eritrea highlights deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea following Eritrea's independence in 1993.

Escalation of Conflicts

• In February 2025, Eritrea mobilized its armed forces leading to heightened fears of invasion and increased troop deployments by Ethiopia along the border. This situation has created complex tensions involving multiple parties: Tigray vs federal government, Tigray vs Amhara, and Ethiopia vs Eritrea.

Internal Divisions within Tigray

• A political rift emerged within the TPLF by late 2024; while some factions supported interim leader Getachew Reda, others remained loyal to Debretsion Gebremichael. This division escalated into violence in March 2025 when Debretsion supporters seized key towns.

• In response to these conflicts within the party, Abiy Ahmed replaced Getachew with General Tadesse Werede as leader of the interim administration amid fears of hardline factions rising against peace agreements.

Legal Challenges for the TPLF

• Due to unresolved factional differences within the party preventing a general assembly from convening, May 2025 saw Ethiopia’s National Election Board revoke the TPLF's political license—an action viewed by many as an attempt by Abiy Ahmed to eliminate opposition permanently.