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Stocks Snap 4 Day Win Streak, Healthy Pullback Or Something More?
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Stocks Snap 4 Day Win Streak, Healthy Pullback Or Something More?

Introduction

The speaker introduces the video and provides some context for the current state of the market.

State of the Market

  • Markets are trading lower, snapping a four-day winning streak.
  • Positive data came out of the jolts number, but it was actually bad news. Bad news is currently good news in the market.
  • The market is not pricing in the cumulative effect of rate hikes. We're likely just seeing the effects of the first or second 75 basis point hike, and there are three or four more to come.
  • There are yellow flags in certain areas, such as semis and transports, but it's not like it's broken yet.

Yellow Flags

  • Semis have been selling all day long after a gap down.
  • Transports DJT has come back below that 141139 level and is back below that previous inside Barlow.
  • Five stocks are holding up the market: Amazon, Adobe, Meta, Microsoft, Google. Other names are experiencing distribution.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by summarizing their thoughts on what they've discussed throughout the video.

Final Thoughts

  • Generally speaking, big cap names are usually the last ones to sell off. However, we're seeing distribution in other names while those big Tech names hold up well.

Market Analysis

The market is losing in every sector except for some big tech names. The speaker thinks that the market is under a little bit of pressure and it's just backing and filling. They believe that there are too many bears right now, but they still think there will be one more bull trap before significant selling occurs.

Short-term outlook

  • The speaker believes that the market can put in a higher low, so at least in the short term, things could change.
  • The speaker thinks that we want to see some backing and filling for another pop. They believe that if we go straight up into this double tap, it's going to wipe out all these support levels.
  • The speaker thinks there are too many bears right now and believes we need one more bull trap before significant selling occurs.

Sector analysis

XLE

  • XLE is down two percent today after being up yesterday.

SPY

  • SPY is pulling back off its trend line.
  • Yesterday, SPY was red with green bars on declining volume. There are no problems here.

QQQ

  • QQQ has a big green bar with a one-two pullback. There are no problems here.
  • QQQ is still a little overbought; they need to work off this condition.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

  • DJIA had a nice reversal today down 61 basis points wiping out yesterday's candle and filling that gap. It's holding up but still a little overbought.

IWM

  • IWM is finding support at the 175 area, but it's not a good chart. It's below all four major moving averages.

Semis

  • The speaker is watching a big rising wedge in semis, but they are underperforming.
  • SMH is down one and a half today.

Transports

  • Transports are down two percent today and hovering right under that 20 moving average. They have been weak for the last couple of weeks.

Bonds

  • The two-year bond is getting a bid today with soft jobs data.
  • There may be a little bit more upside in bonds here, but the speaker doesn't see a ton of upside in the near term.

Housing

  • XHB is interesting to the speaker. Housing is down three percent today.

Housing Market and Energy Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the housing market and energy analysis. They analyze XHB, VNQ, XLF, crude oil, XLE, OIH, natural gas, dollar index and gold.

Housing Market Analysis

  • The speaker analyzes XHB and notes that it has been in distribution all day long.
  • They speculate whether home builders are starting to realize what's about to happen in the housing market as cumulative rate hikes and a cracking job market could lead to deflation.
  • The speaker notes that there is a pretty good outside candle on XHB wiping out the last three days worth of action in one day. This could indicate a down move for the housing market.

Energy Analysis

  • The speaker speculates how Friday's non-farm payrolls data will affect crude oil futures. They wonder if bears will make a run at filling the gap off of that NFP number if it comes in cold.
  • The speaker analyzes XLE and notes that it had a nice outside day down 1.76 percent on the day. They love this trend line hit though beautiful back test of that trendline with a nice outside candle down.
  • OIH is analyzed next with an engulfing reversal down 3.2 percent finding support at that 280 level so again that's been a good Pivot Point here for quite a while but nice little dump there on the oih net gas basically flat here I still like this weekly setup so we'll see if this can get going next week but basically just in a Range so far this week.

Dollar Index and Gold Analysis

  • The speaker analyzes dollar index and notes that it has been showing a lot of doji candles lately. They speculate that the jobs data pushing the dollar lower could lead to a double bottom.
  • Gold is analyzed next with a big day again at 52-week highs 20 39 continuing to power up. The speaker advises against chasing it up here as there's a lot of rhetoric about the dollar being over with the dollars demise.

Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of various markets including equities, gold, silver, platinum, copper and bitcoin.

Equities and Gold

  • If there is a credit crunch and a massive deflation period, equities will sell off sharply.
  • Gold performs well during any sort of panic sell-off but it always has a flash crash.
  • It's not advisable to chase gold at its current price. Historically, there will be a chance to buy it on a washout.

Silver and Platinum

  • Silver has had a powerhouse move recently but is still into a lot of resistance in the near term.
  • Platinum had a nice pop and if it firms up further it can make a run at 1040.
  • There is significant resistance for platinum at around 1043.

Copper and Bitcoin

  • Copper confirms weak data with failed bear bull flag.
  • Near-term support for copper is at 390 with target set at 375.
  • Bitcoin is stuck in range for the time being with target set at 30,000.

Spiders

  • The market can put in lower high and push up possibly even to test February highs.
  • Serious sell-off requires double the current volume of shares traded (63 million).
  • Backing and filling expected in the market.
Video description

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Stocks Snap 4 Day Win Streak, Healthy Pullback Or Something More? | YouTube Video Summary | Video Highlight