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2025 Lecture Series - NY Lunch Macro Rules & PM Session & Final RTH Hour Of Trading 02/24/2025
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2025 Lecture Series - NY Lunch Macro Rules & PM Session & Final RTH Hour Of Trading 02/24/2025

New York Launch Macro and PM Session Overview

Introduction to the New York Launch Macro

  • The session focuses on analyzing intraday profiles, including high, low, open, and close within daily ranges.
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  • Emphasis is placed on avoiding trading during the morning session after a significant down day due to potential market instability.

Market Behavior Analysis

  • Observations of market behavior show that it opened higher but quickly retraced into the gap created by previous trading hours.
  • A 50% retracement of the opening range gap indicates a common pattern with a 70% likelihood of occurrence.

Trading Strategy Insights

  • The first 30 minutes post-market open are critical; aggressive price action can lead to confusion for traders.
  • The speaker clarifies that their tape reading is not a signal service and encourages personal responsibility in trading decisions.

Rules for Trading After Large Range Days

  • Following large range days, students are advised to refrain from trading during the first hour (9:30 - 10:30 AM).
  • A small gap remains after significant downward movement, indicating limited buy-side liquidity.

Understanding the New York Lunch Macro

  • The New York lunch macro involves retracing within the entire daily range on down days to identify potential buy-side opportunities.
  • Even if prices rise without rolling over in the afternoon, there may still be viable trade ideas available.

Practical Application of Concepts

  • At 10:00 AM, traders should mark key price levels and analyze subsequent price action for potential trades.

Understanding Trading Algorithms and Market Dynamics

The Role of Time and Price in Trading

  • The speaker discusses the importance of specific criteria and conditions in trading, emphasizing that certain setups can work effectively when aligned with time elements.
  • A blend of time and price elements is crucial for creating a narrative; the speaker notes observing a short-term low without needing to take immediate action.
  • The significance of not breaking a swing low is highlighted, as it influences the strategy moving forward, particularly regarding potential market retracement.

Strategies Based on Market Timing

  • If the market trends upward significantly at the start of the day, traders should focus on identifying key swing lows after 10:00 AM for their strategies.
  • The speaker predicts that this simple yet effective strategy will soon be commercialized by others who may not credit its original source.

Understanding Market Structure

  • The closing range at 10:00 AM provides a reference point for algorithms to identify fair value gaps and liquidity within that timeframe.
  • Emphasizes that traditional indicators like VWAP are irrelevant to algorithms; instead, they focus on price action around significant lows.

Identifying Key Levels Post-Lunch Macro

  • After identifying highs post 10:00 AM, traders should aim for these levels as targets during lunch macro periods.
  • The speaker reflects on previous recordings where he identified potential upside scenarios based on candlestick patterns.

Analyzing Rejection Blocks and Market Shifts

  • Discussion about rejection blocks indicates how markets react to specific price levels; understanding these can inform trading decisions.

Market Structure and Algorithmic Trading Insights

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • The speaker discusses a trading strategy based on price points, emphasizing the significance of candlestick patterns that converge at high and low points, indicating a likely upward movement.
  • A market structure shift is noted as the price rallies after touching inefficiencies, demonstrating how gaps in pricing can lead to bullish trends.
  • The concept of macro algorithms is introduced, where small scripts dictate market movements. The speaker hints at the importance of timing in recognizing these patterns.

Recognizing Patterns Over Time

  • As traders practice and backtest strategies, they will begin to see recurring phenomena that validate the existence of algorithmic trading behaviors.
  • The discussion includes order blocks defined by wicks above candlesticks, highlighting when to use wick highs versus opening prices for better trade decisions.

Price Action Characteristics

  • Observations are made about volume imbalances affecting market behavior; specific price levels are identified as critical reference points for future trades.
  • The speaker emphasizes monitoring PD arrays (price delivery arrays), which change characteristics based on market conditions and can indicate bullish or bearish trends.

Afternoon Trading Strategies

  • Specific price points are outlined as crucial for determining market direction; understanding these levels helps traders anticipate potential reversals or continuations in trend.
  • The afternoon session's opening range is compared to morning sessions, reinforcing the need for consistent analysis across different times of day to identify trading opportunities effectively.

Algorithmic Price Delivery Insights

  • A focus on relative equal lows suggests that if certain price levels aren't breached by a specified time, it may indicate a bearish sentiment in the market.
  • Characteristics of price action during PM sessions reveal shifts from bullish to bearish dynamics; this transition is marked by respecting lower half ranges while disregarding upper ones.

Understanding Price Action and Trading Strategies

Observations on Discount Arrays

  • The speaker discusses the effects of discount arrays, noting how they can invert their characteristics to prevent prices from dropping further.
  • Specific levels are recorded in a notepad, organized from highest to lowest, with abbreviations indicating their significance and timestamps for when they formed.

Last Hour Trading Insights

  • During the last hour of trading, the speaker attempted to record a bearish fair value gap but had to execute a trade before starting the recording.
  • Emphasizes that sharing insights on Telegram is not monetized; the focus is on education rather than profit.

Technical Analysis and Execution

  • The speaker describes managing trades while balancing family responsibilities, using a phone for quick analysis and execution.
  • Notes taken during trading sessions help identify setups aimed at specific price levels (e.g., 21436.2).

Market Behavior and Trade Management

  • Discusses market behavior during retracements and inefficiencies, highlighting how these factors influence price movements.
  • Describes an immediate rebalance below intraday lows after significant price drops.

Entry Points and Strategy Refinement

  • The speaker shares experiences with limit orders during volatile trading hours, emphasizing capturing profits effectively.
  • Highlights entry strategies within order blocks based on candlestick patterns, reinforcing that being inside these ranges does not equate to chasing prices.

Conclusion and Future Engagement

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Channel: The Inner Circle Trader
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Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.