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Emini S&P 500 Review - April 12, 2023
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Emini S&P 500 Review - April 12, 2023

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of the video, which is a review of the EE mini SMPs.

Weekly Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the weekly chart and notes that they were looking for a trading range between 4180-4181. They mention that if price drops down to 4085.25, it would indicate bearishness.

  • The speaker mentions their opinion on CPI and how it relates to their analysis.
  • They note that price was one tick short of reaching 4180, which is an important level for them.
  • The speaker suggests that price may drop down into the range of 4085.25 and close there, indicating bearishness.

15 Minute Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the 15 minute chart and notes that there is sell side below. They suggest that it will be interesting to see how much price goes into the weekly gap in the form of a busy box on a bowel cell efficiency.

Daily Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the daily chart and notes an opening price on a candle as well as previous highs. They also mention volume imbalances.

  • They note sell side below a low and an imbalance.
  • Speaker mentions not showing weekly chart information but includes it earlier in presentation.

Hourly Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the hourly chart and notes buy side above certain levels.

  • Speaker suggests that if they were incorrect about running higher at E30 CPI number, then they would expect a sell side down to a large amount of cell stops resting below.
  • They suggest that even if price goes higher longer term, it looks bearish near term and they are looking for sell side going into tonight and tomorrow.

15 Minute Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the 15 minute chart again and notes an imbalance in the form of buy side bowel.

Overall, the speaker provides analysis on various charts and notes important levels to watch for. They suggest that price may drop down into a certain range indicating bearishness. They also note sell side below certain levels and imbalances. Finally, they suggest that near term, price looks bearish and they are looking for sell side going into tonight and tomorrow.

Trading Strategies for CPI Release

In this video, the speaker shares his personal opinion on what is likely to occur during the release of CPI. He also discusses a trading strategy that involves identifying fair value gaps and liquidity.

Personal Opinion on CPI Release

  • The speaker's personal opinion is that CPI is a gamble and it's impossible to know for certain what will happen.
  • Tape reading and observation are important takeaways from studying the delivery of price in real-time.

Fair Value Gap Trading Strategy

  • The Silver Bullet trade involves identifying fair value gaps and liquidity between 10 am and 11 am.
  • The sell-side below the low in the PM session can be reached by using this strategy.
  • Look for fair value gaps, aim for liquidity, and aim for minimum five handles when using this strategy.
  • Candle bodies tell the story while wicks do the damage.

PM Session Trading Strategy

  • Between 2 pm and 4 pm is a sweet spot for PM session traders as there tends to be a continuation of bullish or bearish activity.
  • A high-rated shift in market structure occurred at the beginning of the final hour of trading.
  • Institutional order flow entry drill can be used as a partial entry into a fair value gap that doesn't reach midpoint.

Swing Projections and Market Close Macro

The speaker discusses swing projections and market close macro, specifically focusing on the negative three standard deviation at 41 13 and a half.

Negative Three Standard Deviation

  • Measured from high to low for standard deviation for swing projections.
  • Aiming for the low target during the last hour of trading.
  • Negative three standard deviation at 41 13 and a half.
  • This is the low of the day and in that sweet spot between 315 and 345 which is the Market on close macro.

Precision Trading

  • Extreme precision can be seen on charts exactly at 41 13 and a half.
  • It will be interesting to see how we open at six o'clock and start resuming trading.
  • Speaker would like to see a gap lower come back up and fill the gap then proceed to move lower overnight into tomorrow's session.

Conclusion

Speaker concludes by stating that what he would like to see in the market may not necessarily happen.

Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.