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2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 38
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2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 38

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of intraday profiles and daily range, and mentions their previous tweet about looking for a potential run to 40-70.

Intraday Profiles and Daily Range

  • The speaker discusses the concept of intraday profiles and daily range.
  • They mention their previous tweet about looking for a potential run to 40-70.

Objective

The speaker talks about their objective in this lecture, which is to teach how to change gears with your bias, manage your bias, navigate the New York lunch hour, and abandon a specific bias.

Changing Gears with Your Bias

  • The speaker teaches how to change gears with your bias.
  • They discuss what characteristics would lead to a changed bias and how to use that logic going forward.

Managing Your Bias

  • The speaker teaches how to manage your bias.

Navigating the New York Lunch Hour

  • The speaker teaches how to navigate the New York lunch hour.

Abandoning a Specific Bias

  • The speaker teaches how to abandon a specific bias.

Market Structure Shift

The speaker discusses market structure shifts on different time frames.

Market Structure Shift on 15 Minute Time Frame

  • The speaker talks about market structure shift on the 15 minute time frame.
  • They mention that there was a short term shift in market structure relative to the 15 minute time frame.

Liquidity Voids

The speaker discusses liquidity voids and fair value gaps.

Liquidity Voids

  • The speaker talks about liquidity voids and how they differ from what Chris Laurie teaches.

Fair Value Gaps

  • The speaker explains what makes a fair value gap.
  • They mention that there are two premium arrays that may be a draw on liquidity that takes it up in the air and maybe even run above these relative equal highs.

Technical Analysis vs. Market Narrative

In this section, the speaker discusses the difference between technical analysis and market narrative.

Technical Analysis vs. Market Narrative

  • The speaker recommends a technical analyst named "Average Retail Stuff" for learning technical analysis.
  • The speaker teaches how to determine where the market is likely to go next, rather than teaching entry patterns with specific price levels.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of reading price action and understanding market narrative over relying on indicators.
  • Market narrative refers to understanding what price should do, why it should do it, and what factors will prove that assumption correct.
  • The speaker uses an example of looking for 40 70 today to see if it can get down outside the range of that daily fair value gap and we failed to do so and then the market shifted higher now the whole time i'm looking at the market it's not giving me any kind of short i'm not comfortable taking any kind of short.

Understanding Price Action

In this section, the speaker explains how to understand price action in order to make informed trading decisions.

Fair Value Gap

  • The speaker creates a fair value gap on a 15-minute timeframe as an area to watch for potential support or resistance levels.
  • If price supports a run and repels higher from this area, it can set up a stage for an afternoon trend or swing high.
  • When studying intermarket relationships, the speaker looks at real accumulation and distribution by analyzing lower timeframes such as a five-minute chart.

Imbalance Rebalancing

  • Rather than focusing on support and resistance levels, the speaker looks for imbalances in price action that create opportunities for rebalancing.
  • For example, when there is an imbalance created by going through a short-term high followed by treating into that level again.

Market Structure Shift

In this section, the speaker discusses market structure shifts and how to identify them.

Bullish Market Structure Shift

  • The speaker identifies a bullish market structure shift when the market takes out a short-term high on the daily chart.
  • This shift is confirmed when the market rebalances and creates a new swing high.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of trusting oneself and not relying on others' opinions or indicators.

Analyzing the 15-minute chart

The speaker asks the audience to look at their 15-minute chart and shade in the price run from one point to another. He explains that this is where work is required on their part, and that they need to carry over higher time frame analysis into their lower time frame.

Shading in the 15-minute chart

  • Look at your 15-minute chart and shade in the price run from one point to another.
  • The speaker explains how this shaded area can be used for analysis when looking at a five-minute chart.
  • If you don't carry over higher time frame analysis into your lower time frame, you will be trading blind.

Using multiple charts for analysis

The speaker talks about how he uses multiple charts for his analysis, including carrying over higher time frame analysis into his lower time frames. He also mentions his Twitter feed where he shares small segments of him trading or providing commentary.

Using multiple monitors for analysis

  • The speaker mentions using multiple monitors for his analysis.
  • He also mentions sharing small segments of him trading or providing commentary on his Twitter feed.
  • He encourages those who enjoy his content to give him a heads up in the comments below.

Analyzing an imbalance

The speaker talks about analyzing an imbalance on a chart and drawing attention to certain areas using rectangles. He also discusses taking half of a position off once it reaches a certain level.

Drawing attention to an area with a rectangle

  • The speaker draws attention to an area on the chart using a rectangle.
  • He explains that he will take half of his position off once it reaches a certain level.
  • He mentions that this area has bicep liquidity and is an old fair value gap.

Analyzing previous day's high

The speaker talks about analyzing the previous day's high and how it can be used for analysis. He also shows an example of annotating a chart.

Analyzing the previous day's high

  • The speaker talks about analyzing the previous day's high and how it can be used for analysis.
  • He shows an example of annotating a chart with the previous day's high.

Rules for trading in the afternoon session

The speaker discusses rules for trading in the afternoon session, including what to do if the market starts to go higher.

Rules for trading in the afternoon session

  • The speaker discusses rules for trading in the afternoon session.
  • He mentions what to do if the market starts to go higher.

Understanding Market Ranges

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding market ranges and how to avoid getting caught up in them.

Importance of Knowing Market Range

  • It is important to know what you are doing when trading within a smaller range.
  • The speaker initially wanted the 40-70 level but failed to go outside the shaded area.
  • The daily fair valuable is added for edification.
  • Lows are compared, and a divergence is noted between S&P and NASDAQ.

Day Trading vs. Scalping

  • The speaker explains that day trading requires using 15 and 5-minute charts.
  • A model for entries and scalping can be used as entry criteria with logic and narrative for trading in the daily range.

Power Three Concept

  • If bullish, buying at or close to opening price is recommended.
  • The opening price at midnight drops down to create the low of the day forming it at 9:10 New York local time before rallying up shift and market structure.

No Trade Setup

In this section, the speaker talks about not losing money when there's no trade setup.

Advance ICT Things

  • If you know that the market is likely to go down or up, wait for price to give you a setup where it goes down shift market structure come back down into a 15-minute timeframe.

Losing Money on No Trade Setup

  • The speaker emphasizes that if something doesn't give him a setup, he didn't lose any money.
  • He mentions that he was looking for 40 -70 but didn't get it; however, he didn't lose any money because there was no setup.

Afternoon Session Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses trading in the afternoon session.

PM or Afternoon Session Trading

  • If bullish, the market will run higher in the morning and consolidate into lunch hour.
  • The market will drop down and sweep to sell stops or below some short-term low or lows made in lunch.

Understanding Market Structure

In this section, the speaker discusses how to determine market structure and how to use it to make trading decisions.

Determining Market Structure

  • The speaker outlines the dealing range as the swing low to swing high.
  • The speaker explains that if the market is consolidating into lunch, they would look for swing lows during lunch hour and wait for it to drop down sweep them like it's doing here and then rally.
  • If it's a retracement going into lunch, that signals that they're going to work through lunch.

Trading Decisions Based on Market Structure

  • The algorithm reprices to a discount once it gets to here then creates a short term low rallies a little bit leaves smooth highs in here so what is that they think that is resistance so anyone that's short they treat their stop loss here.
  • If the market drops down into sell stops inside fair value gap happening in the lunch hour, take partial profits along the way while raising stop loss up because you don't want it coming back down again.
  • Once you get this skill set down, entries are easy but you have to know how to read the market and also tell when the market's turning and where setups will form.

Trade Management

In this section, the speaker discusses trade management techniques.

Managing Trades from Mobile Devices

  • While away from screens, manage trades from mobile devices by taking some of contracts off and raising stop loss up because you don't want it coming back down again.

Learning to Read Price Action

In this section, the speaker explains how he teaches his students to read price action and change gears when the market shows different setups. He emphasizes that not every market will give the same entry setup as his model.

Reading Price Action

  • The speaker teaches a mindset that gives experience and setups on the lowest time frame but can be scaled to any time frame.
  • Understanding what price is likely to do and where it's drawing to is crucial.
  • Narrative plays an important role in understanding the market's direction.

Using Different Time Frames

In this section, the speaker talks about using different time frames outside of the one through five-minute chart while still using the same logic.

Using Different Time Frames

  • The speaker encourages traders not to limit themselves to only one time frame.
  • Traders should understand what price is likely to do and where it's drawing to regardless of the time frame used.
  • The concepts taught by the speaker can be applied across different charts and time frames.

Understanding Narrative

In this section, the speaker explains how narrative plays a crucial role in understanding market direction. He uses an example of a bullish run in the afternoon.

Market Direction

  • The fair value gap helps identify potential bullish runs in markets.
  • Displacement and energetic price runs are indicators of potential market direction changes.
  • Waiting for a discount before entering a trade is essential for minimizing risk.

Smart Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker talks about smart trading strategies that involve buying or selling stops based on liquidity levels.

Smart Trading Strategies

  • Entering trades based on liquidity levels is a smart trading strategy.
  • Understanding market narrative and direction is crucial for minimizing risk.
  • The speaker provides an example of how he entered a trade based on liquidity levels.

Trade Off and Protecting Stop Loss

In this section, the speaker discusses his trade-off thought process and how he protected his stop loss. He also talks about the optimal trade entry and how it did not hit the previous day's high.

Closing Trading and Protecting Stop Loss

  • The speaker closed trading to protect his stop loss.
  • The stock was below the stop loss but came down, closed in a gap, rallied again, but still did not hit the previous day's high.

Optimal Trade Entry

  • The optimal trade entry is pushing it higher but still did not hit the previous day's high.
  • At the beginning of the day, the speaker tweeted that he wants to see if it wants to make a run down 40-70.
  • As soon as he tweeted it, it went off like a racehorse.

Previous Day's High

  • The speaker drew attention to previous days' highs at 10:35 am on Twitter.
  • He gave a level up there as previous days' high in chart format in the video showing where his mindset is.

Anticipating Market Moves

In this section, the speaker talks about anticipating market moves by studying fair value gaps and liquidity arrays.

Fair Value Gap

  • When retracement comes back down into what I shared in that video beforehand before it even came down here I'm showing you this.
  • Fair value gap when it goes down to here is in what a discount so we're moving from a discount to buy liquidity so premium array is up here.

Liquidity Arrays

  • Discount array is here doesn't make sense for you to anticipate move or originating basically from here running above here taking partial and seeing if it can gravitate towards high.
  • The speaker teaches his students to study liquidity arrays and anticipate market moves.

Simplifying Trading

In this section, the speaker talks about simplifying trading and making it applicable.

Private Group

  • The speaker has a private group that is closed to new members.
  • He is teaching mentorship for free on Twitter.
  • He has simplified trading so that it can be applicable.

Learning Trading

  • You need to learn how to do this before it gets hard, and it's going to get real hard folks read between the lines and think about what I'm saying look around the world's changing okay so put in the time don't rush it you don't need to worry about taking a year to learn how to do this I've streamlined this okay.
  • The speaker encourages people to put in the time and not rush learning trading.

Trading Strategy and Execution

In this section, the speaker discusses their trading strategy and execution during a recent trading session.

Entry and Partial Exit

  • The speaker entered a trade at 41.08 and a quarter, with their fill being 41.10 and a quarter.
  • They took off half of their position at an area where there were relative equal highs, as they believed it could be a failure swing.
  • Another partial exit was taken at 41.34 and a half.

Closing the Remaining Position

  • The speaker closed the remaining one contract because they were concerned it would hit the stop loss.
  • They preferred to take their price at their own exit rather than letting the stop out occur.

Draw on Liquidity

  • Although the speaker was wrong on some levels, they were able to take advantage of the middle portion of the move.
  • They emphasized that traders do not need to catch every high or low to be profitable.

SMT Diversions

In this section, the speaker explains how they use SMT diversions in their trading strategy.

Comparing Instruments

  • The speaker adds NQM2022 as a selection in TradingView's compare tab drop-down menu.
  • They monitor barchart.com for when open interest is larger in September contracts than June contracts before rolling over into September contracts.

Understanding Smart Money Technique

In this section, the speaker explains the concept of Smart Money Technique (SMT) and how it is used to measure real accumulation distribution.

Using SMT for Trading

  • SMT is a tool used to measure real accumulation distribution. It helps traders identify areas of discount and imbalance in the market.
  • Traders can use SMT diversions to find optimal trade entries or fair value gaps. They can also buy short-term lows during these diversions.
  • Real accumulation between Nasdaq and S&P indicates that Nasdaq is under accumulation and failing to go lower. This creates a stop hunt below the short-term low.
  • There are different entry strategies for using SMT, including finding swing highs prior to trading into fair value gaps or waiting for trades to hit the top level of fair value gaps before buying.

Patience in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of patience in trading and waiting for setups.

Waiting for Setups

  • Traders must be patient when waiting for setups. There is more time spent waiting than actually taking trades.
  • Incredible patience is required both when waiting for setups and once a trade has been entered.
  • Once a trade comes into the 50-minute timeframe, traders can look at dealing range lows and highs, fib across them, and buy sell stops.

Buying with Smart Money

In this section, the speaker discusses buying with smart money and provides an example of buying at a specific price point.

Buying with Smart Money

  • Traders can buy with smart money by buying at a specific price point where smart money will be buying.
  • The speaker provides an example of buying at 41.10 and a quarter, which fortifies the setup and allows traders to get in where smart money is buying.

Technical Analysis Insights

In this section, the speaker discusses technical analysis insights and how to identify trends in the market.

Identifying Trends

  • The speaker notes that trends can be identified by looking at patterns in the market.
  • He mentions that he could go on for hours about just one chart, but he wants to keep his videos short since most viewers have an attention span of only 10 minutes.
  • The speaker acknowledges that some viewers use the 2x speed function on videos, which makes him sound like a different person.
  • He encourages viewers to stay safe and promises to touch base with them again on Twitter tomorrow and in another lecture on Thursday as part of his mentorship program.

Key Takeaways

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying trends in order to make informed investment decisions.
  • He stresses the need for brevity when presenting information online, given most people's limited attention spans.
  • The speaker is aware that some viewers may listen to his lectures at double speed, but he still tries to provide valuable insights regardless.
  • He reminds viewers to prioritize their safety and promises to continue sharing his knowledge through various channels.
Playlists: 2022 ICT Mentorship
Video description

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.