AI का भय, Small Caps में गिरावट, सोने की तरफ पलायन… 2026 में निवेशकों को करना क्या चाहिए?

Introduction to Devina Mehra

Overview of Achievements

• Devina Mehra is a well-known figure with impressive qualifications, including being a gold medalist from IIM Ahmedabad, one of the top management institutes globally.

• She is among only two women in 55 years of IIM Ahmedabad's history to receive this honor. Additionally, she has also earned a gold medal from Lucknow University.

• In 2022, she was recognized as one of the "Top 50 Most Powerful Women in Business" by Fortune Magazine and is an accomplished author with bestselling books like "Money Maths and Mantra."

• Devina is the founder, chairman, and managing director of First Global, which became the first Asian company to join the London Stock Exchange in 1999.

Concerns About AI Impact on Employment

Discussion on AI Fears

• The conversation shifts to concerns about AI potentially destroying IT companies and creating job losses.

• Drawing parallels with past technological advancements (e.g., computerization in banking), it’s noted that while jobs may change or disappear, overall employment can increase.

Historical Context

• Historical examples show that new technologies often lead to fears of job loss; however, they typically result in new job creation over time.

Economic Concerns Related to IT Services

Short-term vs Long-term Outlook

• While IT service companies will adapt their business models due to technological changes, there may be short-term job reductions impacting the economy.

Broader Economic Implications

• The discussion highlights how sectors linked to IT services (like food delivery and real estate) could face challenges during transitional periods.

Market Reactions and Sentiment Analysis

Budget Expectations

• There were high expectations for relief measures from the budget; however, tax collections fell short leading to no significant relief being provided by finance ministers.

Market Sentiment as an Indicator

• It’s suggested that market sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator; when optimism is high, actual returns tend to decline subsequently.

Future Projections for Investment Strategies

Investment Trends in Gold and Silver

• Despite volatility in gold and silver markets leading investors to miss opportunities or buy at peaks, there remains interest in these commodities for future investments.

Investment Strategies and Market Insights

The Importance of Forward Thinking in Investment

• Investing should not be based on past performance; looking backward can lead to poor decisions.

• Historical data shows that investing in assets that performed well previously often results in systematic underperformance, as market themes change over time.

Current Trends in Gold and Commodities

• Recent inflows into gold funds have surpassed those into equities, which may signal a concerning trend for gold investments.

• Gold has been highly volatile when priced in dollars, with significant fluctuations observed since 1980, indicating it may not be a stable investment choice currently.

Global Commodity Market Dynamics

• The speaker expresses skepticism about the notion of a "super cycle" for commodities but acknowledges current favorable conditions for commodity investments.

• A recent rebalancing of global funds included increased exposure to commodities like crude oil and metals, suggesting a strategic shift away from U.S. equities.

Challenges Facing Commodity Prices

• Rising commodity prices can negatively impact industries reliant on these materials, leading to pressure against sustained price increases.

• Regulatory factors such as anti-dumping duties affect metal prices in India, complicating the investment landscape further.

Sector-Specific Investment Recommendations

• The speaker highlights an overweight position in auto components and healthcare sectors over the past two years due to their strong performance.

• Caution is advised regarding small-cap stocks due to their historical volatility; investors should carefully assess their portfolios before committing further capital.

Historical Context of Small-Cap Investments

• The small-cap index has experienced significant downturns historically (e.g., an 80% drop during 2008), emphasizing the need for careful selection within this segment.

• Past trends indicate that different stocks tend to perform well during various market cycles; thus, investors should remain vigilant and adaptable.

Investment Strategies and Market Realities

Understanding Market Dynamics

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing stocks that one may not want to see, suggesting a proactive approach to investment.

• Investors are advised against holding onto stocks with the hope that they will return to previous price levels; market interest does not consider past purchase prices.

• A clear understanding of small-cap stocks is highlighted, indicating their unique behavior in the market compared to larger companies.

• The speaker encourages investors to exit positions if they are unwilling to invest at current market prices, promoting a mindset focused on present value rather than historical cost.

• Overall, the discussion revolves around adapting investment strategies based on current market conditions rather than emotional attachments to past investments.