Introducción Pronósticos de la Demanda Confección

Forecasting Demand in the Context of Fashion

Introduction to Forecasting

• The session begins with a definition of forecasting, described as a quantitative or qualitative estimation of one or more factors that constitute a future event.

• Emphasis is placed on using current or past information for forecasting, noting that methods based on historical data may be unreliable due to rapidly changing social contexts.

Importance of Forecasting

• Forecasting is crucial for planning within companies, impacting resource allocation, cost management, and execution control.

• Companies that effectively forecast can visualize future demand and plan necessary resources accordingly to avoid excess inventory or missed opportunities.

Characteristics of Effective Forecasting

• Key characteristics include the focus on future events and specific time periods; accurate forecasts must align with the timeframe being analyzed (e.g., predicting December sales in October).

• There is an inherent uncertainty in forecasts; they are not 100% accurate but can have varying levels of confidence based on available data and applied methods.

Planning Horizons

• Different planning horizons (short-term, medium-term, long-term) are discussed. In fashion, short-term forecasts are emphasized due to rapid changes in trends.

• Companies often rely on qualitative elements like expert analysis for seasonal trends while maintaining short to medium-range projections.

Types of Data Used in Forecasting

• Two main types of data are identified: qualitative (subjective techniques relying on expert experience) and quantitative (numerical data utilizing statistical tools).

Analysis of Data Patterns

Understanding Data Behavior

• The discussion focuses on analyzing how data behaves, emphasizing the importance of understanding different patterns in data behavior.

• It is suggested that there are four primary types of patterns to consider when examining data behavior.

• The speaker indicates that a detailed analysis of each pattern will be conducted in the next video, hinting at a structured approach to understanding these concepts.