🚀💥DCA Live: Crypto Set to Soar or Crash this Summer?💥📈

Introduction

The host introduces the show and his guests, and outlines the topics that will be discussed.

• The host introduces the show and his guests.

• Topics to be discussed include Bitcoin's liquid supply, Ethereum network staking, tradfi, IMF news, global macro geopolitics.

Bitcoin's Liquid Supply

The discussion centers around Bitcoin's liquid supply and how it is decreasing due to whales accumulating more BTC since February 2020.

• Bitcoin's liquid supply has decreased as whales accumulate more BTC since February 2020.

• There is less being held on exchanges and a lot less being sold on exchanges.

• This decrease in liquid supply could explain the recent price increase of BTC despite poor sentiment, lack of volume, and activity.

• During previous halving cycles, the supply increased but for the first time ever in the history of Bitcoin it is going down. This could mean that this time it could be different especially with players like BlackRock and Fidelity Deutsche Bank credit card uh Citadel coming into play.

Self-Custody Solutions

The discussion focuses on self-custody solutions for holding cryptocurrency.

• Multisig is discussed as a way to take control of your funds and do self-custody.

• There are many different solutions now that make it easier for people to get started with self-custody such as wallets where you don't need to write down seed phrases or physical cards where you tap it to your phone and the key is transferred to that card which serves as your private key instead of a seed phrase.

• The recent loss of credibility of exchanges has made people more hesitant to hold any meaningful amount of money on them.

Price Suppression Concerns

The discussion centers around concerns that the lack of activity due to decreased liquid supply could lead to price suppression.

• There are concerns that if there is nothing on exchanges and everything is in people's hard wallets, there could be price suppression because there's no activity.

• However, this fear may be unfounded as the pace of hardness is going up like crazy and players like BlackRock and Fidelity Deutsche Bank credit card uh Citadel coming into play which could mean that this time it could be different.

Impact of Withdrawals on Exchanges

The speaker discusses the impact of people withdrawing their money from exchanges and how it leads to a reduction in supply. They also mention that more people are holding Bitcoin for the long term rather than trading back and forth.

Reduction in Supply

• People want to withdraw their money from exchanges, leading to less money visible on exchanges.

• Having money on an exchange makes it easier to trade, but people are now willing to withdraw and hold Bitcoin for the long term.

• More people holding Bitcoin for the long term leads to a reduction in supply.

Importance of Available Coins

• Market cap doesn't reflect how much money can be taken out or put into an ecosystem.

• To understand what the price will be after new money comes into the market, we need to know how much is available for sale at which prices.

• Fewer coins available for sale means buyers have to start buying at higher prices, while more coins available may not affect price at all.

Increase in Belief in Crypto

The speaker talks about how there is a critical mass of people who believe in crypto more than they did during the last bull market. This is due to banking problems, inflation problems, and events like COVID-19 that made people realize that governments don't always know what they're doing.

Increase in Belief

• More people believe in crypto now than during the last bull market.

• Banking problems, inflation problems, and COVID-19 made people realize that governments don't always know what they're doing.

• More people are holding Bitcoin for the long term rather than trading back and forth.

Importance of Available Coins

The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding how much is available for sale at which prices to predict the impact of new money coming into the market.

Understanding Available Coins

• Market cap doesn't reflect how much money can be taken out or put into an ecosystem.

• To understand what the price will be after new money comes into the market, we need to know how much is available for sale at which prices.

• Fewer coins available for sale means buyers have to start buying at higher prices, while more coins available may not affect price at all.

Concerns about Bitcoin Dominance

The speaker addresses concerns about Bitcoin dominance and explains that it has broken through their original roof of 51.5%.

Bitcoin Dominance

• Concerns about Bitcoin dominance breaking through their original roof of 51.5%.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Run

In this section, the speakers discuss the Bitcoin dominance chart and its resistance levels. They also talk about the possibility of an altcoin run when the dominance goes down.

Bitcoin Dominance Chart

• The Bitcoin dominance chart shows a lot of resistance at approximately 57-58.

• In the last cycle, there was a mid accumulation during this sideways time where Bitcoin is not going to all-time highs.

• If Cycles are really rhyming, it wouldn't surprise me that Bitcoin pumps all the way to 58 then takes a breather there where Bill condominance pumps to 58 takes a breather and then we see the altcoins return.

SEC's Impact on Dominance

• There is a clear breakout in Bitcoin dominance with no resistance yet.

• The SEC causing cell pressure into some of the top old coins like Cardano, Solana etc., has pushed for Bitcoin and pushed down sentiment for alts.

• A lot of people got spooked about that, and at the same time, there is positive momentum around Bitcoin with ETF discussion.

Robinhood Sale Day

• Tomorrow is sale day for Robinhood on alts. The sell pressure for at least those top three alts could go away by then.

• Ship is definitely a very big bag; Matic is the second biggest bag; Cardano is third biggest bag; and then there's some Solana too.

SEC and ETH Dominance

In this section, the speakers discuss the potential impact of lawmakers taking action against Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the SEC. They also talk about Ethereum dominance and how it has been increasing recently.

SEC and Crypto Regulations

• The speakers mention that if action is taken against Gary Gensler by lawmakers, it could have an impact on certain coins.

• There is a discussion about SEC mentioned coins and non-mentioned coins disappearing quickly if there is any action taken against Gensler.

• The speakers note that they haven't heard anything since the proposed bill was introduced.

Ethereum Dominance

• The speakers briefly discuss Ethereum dominance and how it has been increasing recently.

• They look at a table of all coins on ETH ranked by net volume to get an idea of how much money is flowing into which assets.

• Wrapped ETH dominates in terms of net volume, which puts buy pressure on real ETH because wrapped ETH is a proxy for staked ETH.

• The speakers note that this use case for Ethereum as an internet treasury where you can get yield with low risk is fascinating.

Chart Analysis - Ethereum Price Prediction

In this section, the speakers analyze a chart showing the price movement of Ethereum over time. They discuss whether or not it will break out above a certain point and become bullish.

Chart Analysis

• The speaker shares his screen to show a chart of Ethereum's price movement from 2021 to present day.

• He notes that if the chart turns up around its current position and breaks out above 0.085, it will become an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

• If this happens, it would be one of the most classic bullish patterns in crypto with a target close to Bitcoin's market cap.

• The speaker notes that this chart is one of the most interesting charts in crypto.

Solana as the New ETH

In this section, the speakers discuss Solana and its potential as the new Ethereum of this cycle.

Solana's Potential

• The speakers discuss how Solana is being touted as potentially becoming the new Ethereum of this cycle.

• They look at a chart comparing Ethereum's price movement during the last cycle to Solana's current price movement.

• The green line on the chart shows where Solana could potentially go if it follows a similar trajectory to Ethereum.

Solana vs Bitcoin

In this section, the speakers discuss the differences between Solana and Bitcoin in terms of their fundamental properties and potential for growth.

Solana's Advantages Over Bitcoin

• Solana offers more freedom than Bitcoin because it allows users to do more without relying on third-party exchanges or undergoing KYC procedures.

• Solana has a non-EVM-based ecosystem that is attractive to developers who want to avoid the risk of their projects being abandoned by other EVM-based chains.

• Despite its current poor chart performance, there is still potential for Solana to experience significant growth due to its strong development experience, ease of use, and growing ecosystem.

Limitations of Bitcoin

• Holding Bitcoin can feel like a "prison" because it requires third-party exchanges for most transactions and involves KYC procedures that limit financial freedom.

• The market inefficiency surrounding Bitcoin means that there may be opportunities for investors who are willing to look beyond the dominant cryptocurrency.

Crypto Market Opportunities

In this section, the speakers discuss the potential for significant growth in the crypto market and how quick moves can happen.

Potential for Growth in Crypto Market

• The crypto market offers significant opportunities for growth due to the large moves that can occur quickly. For example, no one would have believed that Ethereum's price could have increased so dramatically just a few years ago.

• There is also potential for smaller cryptocurrencies like Solana to experience similar growth if they offer strong development experiences, ease of use, and growing ecosystems.

The Beauty of the Crypto Market

• The crypto market is unpredictable and can change quickly, which means that investors need to be patient and willing to wait for opportunities. It's like fishing in a lake with a hole in the ice - you have to wait for the right moment to catch something.

BlackRock and Bitcoin Forking

In this section, the speakers discuss the possibility of BlackRock coming into Bitcoin and buying it all up. They also talk about the potential for a fork in Bitcoin and how difficult it would be from a technology perspective.

Possibility of Forking

• The speakers discuss the possibility of BlackRock unlocking and reforking Bitcoin to something proof of stake ESG friendly.

• They mention Roger War and team's attempt to become the dominant fork with so much capital behind them.

• The speakers talk about how close they were to succeeding with the coup attempt, which could have caused panic among holders.

• Ivan is not concerned about a possible fork because if they start messing around with it, it's no longer the same as Bitcoin. He believes that social consensus is strong enough to prevent any changes.

Impact on Price

• The speakers discuss how difficult it would be from a technology perspective to fork Bitcoin and what impact it would have for holders.

• They believe that BlackRock is more interested in playing the price game than trying to control or change anything in Bitcoin.

• The speakers mention Grayscale's ETF as an example of institutional manipulation that can harm retail investors.

Conclusion

• Ivan believes that institutions like BlackRock will not be able to change social consensus layer where market participants decide what is real Bitcoin.

• CTO thinks that institutions stratify will push crypto adoption because they have resources.

Institutions and IMF on Crypto

In this section, the speaker discusses the behavior of institutions in the stock market and their accumulation of assets while spreading doomsday propaganda. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also discussed, specifically their recent change in stance towards crypto.

Institutions' Behavior in Stock Market

• Big players are buying stocks sneakily to avoid affecting prices.

• Institutions have been accumulating assets for the past year despite mainstream media's doomsday propaganda.

• NASDAQ has not broken its famous channel in 15 years, even during COVID and recession, making it a buying opportunity for institutions.

IMF's Change in Stance Towards Crypto

• The IMF recently stated that a complete crypto ban would be ineffective in the long run.

• The speaker questions why the IMF changed its stance so quickly and suggests that it may be related to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

• The possibility of ESG certification for Bitcoin is discussed, but deemed impractical due to labeling difficulties.

Warren Buffett's Perspective on US Economy

In this section, Warren Buffett's perspective on the US economy is discussed along with advice on investing in recession-proof stocks.

• Warren Buffett predicts an end to an incredible period and advises investors to focus on investing in recession-resistant assets.

• The speaker echoes this sentiment and advises viewers to invest in recession-proof stocks.

Economic Challenges and Risk Assets

The discussion revolves around the economic challenges faced by Sweden, the impact of interest rates on the property market, and how risk assets like cryptocurrencies are performing in these challenging times.

Economic Challenges in Sweden

• The Swedish central bank and politicians are bullish about decreasing interest rates towards the end of the year.

• People have savings, but mortgages have increased five times. Food prices have also gone up, but the real estate market is still doing okay.

• This year, 70% of Swedish mortgage rates will go from fixed to variable. This could lead to a non-recession recession where only people with assets feel the pain.

Impact on Risk Assets

• Cryptocurrencies and other risk assets seem to be doing well through all these national economic challenges.

• Technology stocks haven't cared about COVID or this year's recession; they've stayed in the same channel for almost 15 years.

• QE is already happening behind the scenes, which is positive for risk assets. When the first six months of the stock market goes up more than 10%, there's an 82% chance that it will continue going up for another eight percent.

Interest Rates and Risk Assets

• If interest rates go up because of a hard landing recession or deficits being through the roof, it could scare markets and bring them down.

• There's uncertainty about whether a hard landing self-recession is coming or not.

Geopolitical Expertise: Putin, Belarus Relationship & Wagner Group

The discussion revolves around the Wagner Group, Putin, and the Belarus relationship.

• The speaker is a geopolitical expert and can speak for hours about this topic. No further information is provided in the transcript.

Wagner and the Russian Government

The creation of Wagner, a private military company, was to get rid of competition for the Russian government. They operate unofficially across the world doing tasks for the Russian government. However, this has created problems as Russia does not have a single army and everyone is trying to create their own.

Wagner's Creation

• Wagner was created seven years ago to get rid of competition for the Russian government.

• They operate unofficially across the world doing tasks for the Russian government.

Problems with Multiple Armies

• Russia does not have a single army and everyone is trying to create their own.

• Chechnya has its own army that doesn't follow rules and has special conditions.

Pregosian's Move

Pregosian saw that his fate was becoming like one of Ukraine's warlords who became famous during World War II. He started making moves by creating loud videos where he criticized Russia's leadership and tried to make a name for himself. This eventually turned into an attempted coup which was resolved by Belarusian dictator Lukashenko.

Pregosian's Move

• Pregosian saw that his fate was becoming like one of Ukraine's warlords who became famous during World War II.

• He started making moves by creating loud videos where he criticized Russia's leadership and tried to make a name for himself.

• This eventually turned into an attempted coup which was resolved by Belarusian dictator Lukashenko.

Russia's Weakness

Russia is viewed as weak, especially after they were unable to stop an insurgency. Despite everything that has been thrown at Bitcoin this year, it continues to remain strong.

Russia's Weakness

• Russia is viewed as weak, especially after they were unable to stop an insurgency.

• Many people who like crypto think that Russia is weak.

• Gary Kasparov thinks that "Russia has been dead for a long time."

• Despite everything that has been thrown at Bitcoin this year, it continues to remain strong.

Crypto Market and the US

In this section, the speakers discuss the impact of the US on the crypto market. They talk about how much of the trading volume comes from Asia and how institutions will still trade even if everything is banned in the US.

The Impact of US on Crypto Market

• The US makes up only 14 to 17% of actual trading volume.

• Institutions will still trade via entities in Europe if everything is banned in the US.

• U.S matters a lot because it's a symbol for other countries to follow.

• If U.S completely bankrupt or steps out of crypto, it would be a disaster.

Politicians' Role in Crypto Market

• It's important for U.S politicians to understand that they don't control crypto.

• As long as they know that Crypt is so much bigger than than the US, they may do something more smart.

• RFK Junior has been very vocal Pro crypto and pro freedom and against much of mainstream narrative.

Future Outlook

• The speakers are confident that U.S will come out with a reasonable outcome because it's pro-innovation.

• There is no way an outsider can come in and win because both parties are controlled by players you do not see.

English The Future of Crypto and Bitcoin

In this section, the speakers discuss the importance of pandering to people who are in the middle politically and how crypto can play a role in that. They also talk about the potential impact of BlackRock's approval on GBTC and whether ETFs are good or bad for the crypto space.

Importance of Pandering to People in the Middle Politically

• It's important to pander to people who are in the middle politically because they can go left or right.

• If BlackRock gets approval, it's only a matter of time before Grayscale gets it too, which means that as soon as Gary Gensler leaves office (maximum 16 months), GBTC discount will go to zero and its price will go up.

Are ETFs Good or Bad for Crypto?

• It's inevitable that someone will create an ETF for an asset that people want to trade.

• An ETF based on Bitcoin provides more transparency than gold because it is on-chain.

• It's not productive to discuss whether ETFs are good or bad for crypto because they will happen no matter what.

Holding Bitcoin Forever

• Hard assets like gold, companies, or Bitcoin can go up forever if they don't get replaced by something else.

• Fiat currency trends towards zero due to inflation, so hard assets become more valuable over time.

• Owning one whole Bitcoin is becoming a special place on Earth with no more than 350,000 - 400,000 people ever being able to achieve that level.

Bitcoin Price Predictions and BlackRock ETF Approval

In this section, the speakers discuss their thoughts on the current state of the Bitcoin market and make predictions about future price trends. They also discuss the potential impact of a BlackRock ETF approval on the market.

Pre-Halving Run and Post-Halving Run

• The speakers predict that there will be a pre-halving run leading up to April 14th, 2024.

• After the halving, if demand stays constant, they predict that prices will go up.

• Based on historical data, they estimate that the post-halving run could last until September 25th, 2025.

Impact of BlackRock ETF Approval

• The speakers discuss how a BlackRock ETF approval could impact the market.

• They predict that if approved before April 2024, it could cause prices to rise to around $60k before experiencing a crash down to $30k.

• If approved after April 2024, they believe it may be too late for investors to get in before the halving cycle plays out.

• They caution that investors should be ready for market manipulation games and suggest picking up cheap Bitcoin during these times.

Final Thoughts

• The speakers encourage viewers to stay invested in Bitcoin for the long haul and not get caught up in short-term price action.

• They remind viewers to tune into Ivan's channel next Monday for more content.