2025 Lecture Series - How To Disqualify 1st Presented FVGs \ 04/08/2025
Market Review and Analysis of Monday's Trading
Overview of Market Opening
- The speaker introduces the review of Monday's trading, mentioning a delay in sharing the analysis due to personal reasons.
- The market opened below a significant low at 17,113.25, indicating a gap down and subsequent lower trading into an identified liquidity void.
- Discussion on the S&P showing a similar lower gap opening; emphasis on grading the opening range for better understanding.
Key Observations from Market Behavior
- Notable divergence between NASDAQ and S&P: NASDAQ made lower lows while S&P made higher lows, suggesting potential market behavior insights.
- Concerns about erratic price action due to external factors like tariffs affecting market stability; caution advised regarding leverage usage.
- Highlighting a liquidity void on the daily chart for NQ, with close proximity to it being sufficient for analysis purposes.
Trading Strategy Insights
- The speaker discusses their strategy focusing on easy targets without holding onto complex positions during volatile periods.
- Examination of London session lows and buy-side liquidity; noting key times when algorithmic trading influences occur (e.g., 8:30 AM).
Execution and Position Management
- The speaker highlights their exit strategy during trades, emphasizing careful management rather than chasing additional gains.
- Reflection on past decisions shared publicly; reiteration of maintaining caution in trading practices despite previous regrets.
Technical Analysis Breakdown
- Introduction to fair value gaps observed during specific time frames (9:30 - 10 AM), marking significant sell-side activity at London lows.
- Transitioning focus to NASDAQ’s performance post-sell side activity; highlighting missed opportunities but acceptance of trade outcomes.
Understanding Market Dynamics
- Explanation of market structure dynamics including consolidation phases and how they relate to price movements observed early in the session.
- Clarification on expectations set prior to market openings based on earlier analyses provided over social media platforms.
Understanding Price Gaps and Balanced Price Ranges
The Concept of Present Value Gap
- The present value gap is analyzed in relation to the proximity of candlesticks that formed prior. Observations are made on the bodies of these candles, indicating that a gap may only exist if it breaks away from established price ranges.
Balanced Price Range Analysis
- A gap within a balanced price range does not signify a breakaway; rather, it remains contained within this range. This suggests that gaps must be evaluated against their context within the market structure.
Identifying Inefficiencies
- The discussion emphasizes that there is no true gap or imbalance when examining certain candlestick formations. Instead, they reflect movement within an established balanced price range without creating inefficiencies.
Candlestick Movement Dynamics
- Analyzing the sequence of candle movements reveals how prices oscillate between highs and lows, reinforcing the idea of fair value trading. Each candle's opening and closing points contribute to understanding market behavior.
Recognizing Real Inefficiencies