Инвестиции в золото и акции золотодобытчиков сейчас!? Глобальный разбор: Полиметалл, Полюс, селигдар

Understanding the Impact of Sanctions on Russian Gold Mining Stocks

Overview of Sanctions and Market Pressure

• The introduction of sanctions by the US and UK on gold imports has significantly pressured Russian gold mining stocks, leading to a notable decline in their prices.

• In 2021, Russia exported 302 tons of gold, with 266 tons going to the UK, highlighting the critical impact of these sanctions as they target the largest buyer.

Potential Market Adjustments

• There is speculation that Russian gold may be rerouted through China and India at discounted rates due to market shifts caused by sanctions.

• The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has historically been a major buyer of domestically mined gold, but liquidity issues may prevent it from absorbing large quantities now.

Theories on Gold Export Routes

• One theory suggests that Russian gold could be sent to neighboring countries for refining before being sold in London, where significant trading volumes occur.

• This process might involve discounts when selling to other countries, potentially reaching up to 10%.

Global Demand for Gold

• Despite potential decreases in demand due to sanctions, global consumption of gold is unlikely to disappear entirely; it remains essential for both investment and industrial use.

• Russia accounts for about 8% of global gold production, ensuring some level of ongoing demand despite market fluctuations.

Price Predictions and Economic Factors

• Historical patterns suggest that after reaching peaks similar to current levels, gold prices have previously dropped significantly; a repeat scenario could see prices fall again.

• Current estimates indicate that while prices may drop below $1800 per ounce again, they are unlikely to fall as low as $1200-$1300 due to production costs faced by miners.

Currency Influence on Gold Prices

• The strength of the ruble against the dollar plays a crucial role in profitability for Russian miners since gold is traded in dollars. A weaker ruble would benefit them.

• Recent trends show fluctuations in currency values which can affect stock performance; however, long-term stability is expected as companies adjust pricing strategies accordingly.

Conclusion: Key Considerations for Investors

• Investors should consider three main factors affecting Russian mining stocks: declining gold prices, potential reductions in production levels, and necessary discounts impacting sales opportunities.

• Future expectations include possible recovery post-recession when monetary policies shift back towards expansionary measures favoring precious metals like gold.

Analysis of Gold Mining Companies: Polyus and Polymetal

Overview of the Gold Market

• Discussion on the current state of gold mining companies, focusing on Polyus and Polymetal. The speaker expresses a lack of interest in discussing Petropavlovsk due to its corporate issues.

Polyus Company Insights

• Review of Polyus' annual report for 2021, highlighting key production metrics. The company produced over 27 million ounces of gold in 2021 and maintains a production forecast for 2022 between 2.2 to 2.8 million ounces.

• Notable observation that while production levels are stable, there is uncertainty regarding sales volumes due to market conditions.

• Average selling price for gold in 2021 was $1800 per ounce; however, potential price drops between 10% to 15% are anticipated, along with an additional market discount.

• Projected revenue decline from $5 billion in 2021 to approximately $4 billion in 2022 due to lower gold prices and increased costs.

• Cost per ounce for gold extraction rose from $405 in 2021 to an estimated range of $425-$450 in 2022, indicating a significant increase in operational expenses.

Financial Projections for Polyus

• Anticipated revenue drop could lead to earnings around ¥110 billion (approximately $292 billion), reflecting a substantial decrease compared to previous years.

• Despite maintaining profit margins at about 45%, rising extraction costs will likely reduce net profits significantly by year-end.

• Current valuation metrics suggest that shares may be overpriced given historical P/E ratios ranging from 6 to 9; fair value estimates indicate share prices could range from ¥5,300 to ¥6,000 based on projected earnings.

Investment Considerations

• Current capitalizations suggest high P/E ratios around ten times expected earnings raise concerns about investment attractiveness despite recent stock price declines.

• Technical analysis indicates two critical price zones: one near ¥7,800 and another around ¥5,000; investors should consider stop-loss strategies when trading these stocks.

Polymetal Company Overview

• Introduction of Polymetal as a more complex investment due to its non-local status and risks associated with foreign jurisdiction affecting dividend payments amidst sanctions discussions.

• Acknowledgment that Polymetal's stock has dropped significantly (around 80%), but it possesses valuable assets both within Russia and Kazakhstan which may mitigate some risks associated with geopolitical tensions.

Risk Assessment and Recommendations

• While risks exist regarding potential sanctions impacting dividends or operations, diversification remains crucial; investors should limit exposure per asset class—ideally keeping investments under five percent of their portfolio per asset type.

• Emphasis on careful consideration before investing heavily into either company given current market volatility; individual investor risk tolerance must guide decisions moving forward.

This structured summary provides insights into the financial health and market positioning of Polyus and Polymetal while addressing broader investment considerations within the context of fluctuating gold prices.

Analysis of Polymetal's Financial Forecasts

Revenue and Cost Projections

• The company confirms a production forecast of 7 million ounces for the year 2021, with an estimated cost per ounce ranging from $850 to $950, significantly higher than the previous year's $730.

• The impact on net profit is expected to be substantial; while the effect in one area is projected at 10%, in metal production it could range from 16% to 30%.

• For 2022, anticipated revenue may drop to around 170 billion rubles due to potential declines in gold prices and discounts.

Profitability Concerns

• The company's net profit for 2021 was reported at 67 billion rubles, approximately 30% of total costs. Increased expenses could reduce net profit nearly to zero.

• With projected cash costs at $1300 per ounce against an expected gold price of $1500-$1600, margins are becoming extremely tight.

Valuation Insights

• Currently trading at a P/E ratio near one indicates that investors are purchasing assets at fair value without considering the company's historical market presence and logistical expertise.

• Despite being close to historical lows, there are signs of buying interest in Polymetal shares, suggesting potential undervaluation based on balance sheet metrics.

Investment Considerations

• Overall sentiment towards Polymetal suggests that acquiring shares at book value presents a straightforward investment opportunity. However, future growth prospects remain uncertain until issues regarding depositary receipts are resolved.