Jeremy Lefebvre says “this stock is the next Palantir”

Market Insights: AMD, Nike, and Estee Lauder

Overview of Market Trends

• Discussion begins with the performance of Nike and Estee Lauder, highlighting their appeal as investment options outside the major tech stocks (MAG 7).

• Both companies are outperforming the market significantly on a day when overall market performance is weak.

AMD's Price Increase Announcement

• AMD plans to raise prices on its Instinct MI350 AI chips from $15,000 to $25,000, reflecting strong demand for its AI products.

• Despite the price increase being nearly 70%, it remains cheaper than Nvidia's Blackwell B200 chip, indicating competitive pricing strategy.

Analyst Insights and Future Projections

• Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rackers expresses optimism about AMD’s upcoming fiscal second quarter results due on August 5th.

• Analysts expect significant revenue growth in GPU sales for fiscal Q3 2025, projecting around $1.65 billion in revenue.

Competitive Landscape: AMD vs. Nvidia

• The discussion emphasizes that even at $25K, AMD undercuts Nvidia's pricing while offering comparable or superior performance.

• The speaker argues that Nvidia has set high standards for performance and pricing which benefits AMD by allowing it to position itself competitively.

Future Growth Potential for AMD

• Anticipation builds around AMD’s potential revenue and profitability growth over the next few years as they ramp up production.

• The speaker predicts a transformative growth cycle for AMD similar to what Nvidia experienced recently; expectations are set high for future net margins and income levels.

AMD's Future Potential and Market Misunderstandings

AMD Stock Valuation Insights

• The speaker reflects on the future value of AMD stock, predicting that it will be surprising to see how low its price was (around $170) in hindsight.

• Current PE ratio is reported at 50, but the speaker believes this underestimates AMD's potential growth, suggesting a more realistic forward PE could be between 35 to 40.

• Emphasizes optimism about AMD's growth trajectory over the next few years, indicating a strong belief in the company's long-term success.

Community and Investment Opportunities

• Introduction of a private investment group where members have achieved significant financial milestones in their portfolios.

• Encouragement for viewers struggling to find like-minded investors to consider joining the private group for shared learning and collaboration.

Comparison with Palantir

• The speaker introduces a stock reminiscent of Palantir, hinting at similarities that warrant attention from investors.

• Expresses excitement about comparing this new stock with Palantir, noting past successful investments in both companies.

Key Similarities Between AMD and Palantir

• The speaker does not expect extreme gains from this new stock as seen with Palantir but anticipates substantial returns nonetheless.

Performance During Market Corrections

• Highlights that buying AMD during its major correction mirrors purchasing Palantir during its downturn; both stocks faced significant declines before recovery.

Decline Metrics

• Both stocks experienced steep declines: AMD saw over a 60% drop while Palantir faced an even larger decline exceeding 80%.

Market Sentiment

• Discusses negative market sentiment surrounding both stocks during their respective downturn periods, emphasizing how retail investors viewed them unfavorably.

Product Quality and Long-Term Viability

• Notes that both companies offer strong long-term products; mentions specific product lines from each company that are expected to drive future growth.

Misunderstood by Investors

Analysis of AMD and Palantir's Financial Health

Overview of Balance Sheets

• The speaker highlights the strong balance sheet of Palantir, noting it had minimal debt and good cash flows in the past.

• AMD is also recognized for its solid balance sheet, with expectations for significant profit growth in the coming years, despite not being a dividend payer.

• The comparison emphasizes that while both companies have strong leadership, AMD's current financial position appears more stable than Palantir's was in 2022.

CEO Performance Comparison

• Alex Karp’s performance as CEO of Palantir was uncertain in 2022; however, he has since proven himself as a top-tier CEO.

• Lisa Su at AMD is already established as an effective leader, contributing to investor confidence in AMD compared to Palantir during its earlier struggles.

Investment Insights

• The speaker expresses confidence in investing heavily in AMD due to its improving metrics and profitability compared to Palantir’s declining growth rates at that time.

• While acknowledging that investing in AMD carries less risk than buying into Palantir did back then, there remains potential for substantial returns on investment.

Risk Assessment

• The speaker does not anticipate extreme returns from AMD (like 2,500% or more), but sees potential for reasonable gains between 300% to 700%.

• Concerns are raised about the possibility of significant losses with Palantir; however, similar risks are not perceived with AMD.

Recent Transactions and Future Plans

• The speaker discusses selling additional shares of Palantir for a considerable profit margin—$39,000 from an $1,800 investment.

• They plan to reduce their holdings further by selling down to 1,000 shares by year-end while maintaining a long-term perspective on remaining shares.

Market Cap Predictions for Palantir

• There is skepticism regarding whether Palantir will reach a trillion-dollar market cap within the next decade; estimates suggest only a 10% probability.

• The belief is that Palantir will likely remain valued at hundreds of billions rather than achieving exponential growth.

Conclusion on Selling Strategy

Stock Predictions and Community Insights

Stock Performance and Predictions

• The speaker notes that the stock price has increased since a previous video, making the risk-reward ratio less attractive.

• They encourage viewers to follow their updates on X (formerly Twitter), where they share insights about Palantir's stock expectations.

• The speaker predicts that growth rates for Palantir may begin to decelerate within 1 week to 6 months, impacting stock performance significantly.

Long-term Outlook

• They express skepticism about reaching 2025 highs again until the 2030s, predicting flat or declining stock prices from those highs through 2026-2030.

• The speaker emphasizes their belief that holding onto a large position in Palantir could result in "dead money" over the coming years.

Investment Strategy

• While selling most shares, they retain a small position as a hedge against potential unexpected growth acceleration in revenue.

• The speaker is uncertain about future peak prices but firmly believes that current highs will not be revisited until much later.

Community Comparisons

• They reflect on their past ownership of over 5,000 shares and express appreciation for the maturity of the Palantir community compared to Tesla's community.

• The speaker contrasts the intelligent discourse within the Palantir community with what they perceive as immaturity among Tesla supporters.

Cautionary Notes on Community Dynamics

• A warning is issued regarding potential changes in the Palantir community dynamics due to recent retail interest, which could lead to an influx of less informed investors.

Concerns About Palantir's Future

Deterioration of Community Discourse

• The speaker expresses concern that Palantir may be devolving into a community characterized by low-quality, meme-like responses, reminiscent of trolling behavior. This shift is viewed as disappointing and potentially harmful to the stock's future.

Historical Context with Tesla

• A comparison is drawn between Palantir and Tesla, noting that investors in Tesla have seen stagnant stock performance over the past four and a half years, leading to frustration among shareholders.

Investment Outlook

• The speaker suggests that now is not the right time to invest in Tesla again, indicating a cautious approach towards current market conditions and potential future investments.

Evolution of the Tesla Community

• The speaker reflects on their role in building the Tesla community since 2018, highlighting that prior to their involvement, there was primarily a short-seller community rather than a supportive long-term investor base.

Shift in Community Dynamics