Lecture 1: State of Global Environment (Air)

Introduction to Environmental Impact Assessment

Overview of the Course

• The course aims to explore the concept of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), its definition, purpose, historical context, and current national positioning in the process.

Global Environmental Status

• A review of the Global Environmental Outlook 6 report by the United Nations Environment Program (2019) will be conducted, focusing on air-related environmental concerns. Chapters 2 and 5 will specifically address drivers of environmental change and global environmental status.

Drivers of Environmental Change

Human Activities and Emissions

• The session will cover human activities that generate emissions, their impact on health, food security, ecosystems, and the necessity for EIA. Expected learning outcomes include identifying these drivers and synthesizing global air quality status.

Historical Context of Environmental Movement

• The evolution of the environmental movement is discussed: from conservation efforts to a focus on preservation due to nature's intrinsic value, culminating in modern concerns about risks posed by environmental degradation to human health.

Significant Events Influencing Environmental Awareness

Industrialization and Major Incidents

• Key historical events such as industrialization in the 19th century and World War I heightened awareness about environmental degradation. Notable incidents like London's Great Smog (1952) led to significant legislative changes like the Clean Air Act.

Influential Figures in Environmentalism

• Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring" (1962) is highlighted as a pivotal work that raised awareness about pesticide risks, marking a significant moment in environmental advocacy history. Additionally, references are made to tragedies like the Bhopal gas leak incident (1984).

Current State of Global Environment

Factors Influencing Change

• The report identifies five key drivers affecting global environmental change: population growth/demographics, urbanization, economic development, technological advancements, and climate change as an independent factor influencing these shifts.

Urbanization Trends

• Rapid urbanization poses challenges; while it can lead to wealth generation, it also strains resources and infrastructure significantly due to increasing populations moving into cities at an unprecedented pace. This trend raises concerns regarding sustainability and resource management in urban areas.

Vulnerability in Urban Areas

Assessing Vulnerability

• Countries with low levels of urbanization but high population growth rates face increased vulnerability; Indian cities are noted as particularly susceptible based on factors such as urban susceptibility and lack of coping capacities according to the report's calculations.

Economic Development and Environmental Impact

Historical Context of Economic Growth

• Economic developments, particularly industrialization, have led to increased wealth but also heightened resource use and environmental damage.

Boulding's Economic Models

• Glasson and Therivel reference Boulding's 1966 work, contrasting the throughput economy with the spaceship economy, highlighting how economic growth often relies on increased inputs for greater outputs.

• This process inherently leads to more waste products alongside goods and services, indicating a self-destructive cycle where increased output demands more resources.

Environmental Consequences of Economic Activity

• The natural environment serves as both a source of resources and a sink for waste; thus, pollution and resource depletion are byproducts of economic development.

• Governments at various levels recognize the need to manage human-environment interactions better, suggesting that Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) play a crucial role in this management.

Technological Advances: Double-Edged Sword

• While technological advancements have accelerated in recent decades, they bring both positive outcomes (e.g., motor vehicles, electricity) and negative environmental impacts that will persist into the future.

Climate Change as an Independent Driver

• Climate change is now recognized as a significant driver of environmental change that threatens future economic development by impacting food and water security.

Human Activities Affecting Ecosystems

Transformation of Natural Systems

• Human activities have caused climate change that disrupt ecosystems beyond their capacity to self-regulate, leading to irreversible consequences for global humanity.

Ecological Foundations Under Threat

• Systematic ecological changes like climate change and land use alterations endanger the ecological foundations necessary for supporting human society and other species.

Pollution as a Health Risk

• Increasing pollution from human activities is now recognized as the largest single risk to global health.

Current Global Environmental Status

Air Quality Concerns

• Emissions from human activity have altered Earth's atmospheric composition with detrimental effects on public health; air pollution has significantly contributed to global disease burdens.

Drivers of Emissions

• Trends in emissions are influenced by population growth, urbanization, economic activity, technology advancements, lifestyle choices, and policy interventions aimed at regulating these factors.

Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• From 1990 to 2014, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions rose over 40%, primarily due to increases in Asia. In contrast, North America and Europe saw declines due to technological improvements.

Electricity and Fuel Production: Major Emission Sources

Overview of Emissions in the Electricity Sector

• The electricity and fuel production sector is the largest anthropogenic emitter, with electricity generation contributing approximately 70% of key pollutants.

• Despite advancements in renewable energy, fossil fuels remain dominant, particularly coal-fired plants which account for three-quarters of emissions.

• Technological interventions have prevented a rise in air pollutant emissions despite a doubling of electricity generation from 1990 to 2015.

Factors Influencing Emission Reductions

• Key factors include improved energy efficiency, tighter emission standards, and advancements in end-of-pipe control technologies.

• Future projections indicate a two-thirds increase in electricity demand by 2050, necessitating further measures to reduce emissions.

Transportation: A Significant Source of Air Pollution

Emissions from Transportation Activities

• Transportation is identified as a major source of air pollutants globally, including greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances.

• Road transport (cars and trucks), especially those using petrol or diesel, contributes significantly to emissions near populated areas.

Regional Insights on Transport Emissions

• North America and Europe exhibit higher road transport activity compared to other regions, leading to greater carbon dioxide emissions.

• In developing countries, road transport emissions are rising due to increased vehicle usage despite existing emission standards.

Maritime Shipping: Growing Environmental Impact

Trends in Maritime Shipping Emissions

• Maritime shipping accounts for 80% of global trade volume and has seen over a 300% growth from 1990 to 2015.

• Ships typically burn heavy petroleum products, making them significant sources of global emissions affecting coastal regions.

Regulatory Measures for Emission Control

• International laws have established emission control areas; new standards announced by the International Maritime Organization aim to reduce shipping emissions starting in 2020.

Aviation's Role in Global Emissions

Current Contribution and Growth Trends

• Aviation currently contributes less than 2% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but has seen substantial growth (235% increase in passenger travel from 2000 to 2016).

Environmental Impact Considerations

• Aircraft emit pollutants at high altitudes where their impact on ozone formation is more significant than ground-level emissions.

Industrial Contributions to Air Pollution

Overview of Industrial Emissions

• The industrial sector encompasses manufacturing and mining activities that contribute significantly to air pollution through greenhouse gases and persistent bioaccumulative toxic chemicals (PBT).

Historical Context and Challenges

• Two-thirds of historic carbon dioxide and methane emissions are attributed to industrial activities like fossil fuel production.

• New industrial products pose regulatory challenges as their emissions often go unregulated or unquantified.

Environmental Emissions and Public Health

Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• The built environment, including construction, heating, cooling, and lighting of residential and commercial buildings, significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in developed economies and some cities in developing countries.

• Waste management practices such as open dumping and burning of solid waste are prevalent in low-income countries, contributing to emissions.

• Agriculture, forestry, and land use account for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions; developed countries contribute about 10%, while developing nations have a much higher dependency on agriculture leading to increased emissions.

• Natural sources like wind-blown dust from arid regions also contribute significantly to atmospheric particulate matter (PM), particularly in North Africa and the Middle East.

Air Pollution Indicators

• Key air pollutants include particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone; areas affected by wind-blown sand show the highest annual average concentrations of PM2.5.

• Satellite observations from 1998 to 2012 indicate significant decreases in PM2.5 over Eastern North America but increases over West Asia, South Asia, and East Asia due to anthropogenic pollution.

• Urban areas exhibit higher levels of air pollution; only four out of forty-five mega cities meet WHO guidelines for annual average concentration levels.

Ozone Pollution Trends

• Ground-level ozone is most concentrated in northern middle latitudes and tropics during warm seasons; hotspots include North America, the Mediterranean region, South Asia, and East Asia.

• Central Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia also report high population-weighted ozone concentrations.

Dust Sources Impacting Climate

• Wind-blown sand is the largest source of particulate matter globally; its dust belt extends across various regions including North Africa through Central Asia to Mongolia and China.

• Human activities such as land clearing influence dust sources leading to desertification; significant increases in dust levels have been observed due to climate change between 2001–2012.

Health Impacts from Environmental Changes

• Transported dust affects climate patterns and precipitation while contributing to respiratory health issues; it can also spread pathogens affecting humans, animals, and plants.

• Fires related to land clearing are major contributors to transboundary pollution; persistent bioaccumulative toxic substances like mercury are notably concentrated in East/South/Southeast Asia due to artisanal gold mining activities.

Consequences on Human Health

• Exposure to indoor/outdoor air pollution led to an estimated 6–7 million premature deaths globally in 2016 according to WHO reports; even short-term exposure can have severe health impacts.

• Long-term exposure poses serious risks for public health with increasing concerns during episodes of high air pollution concentrations.

Air Pollution and Its Global Impact

Overview of Air Pollution Effects

• The number of deaths due to air pollution varies significantly across countries, influenced by population size, demographics, underlying disease rates, and socioeconomic factors.

• Between 2010 and 2016, global deaths from ambient PM exposure increased by 11%, attributed to rising air pollution levels and an aging population. In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding WHO air quality guidelines.

• Air pollution contributes to various chronic and acute diseases, particularly cardiovascular and respiratory issues. Economic losses from healthcare costs and reduced worker productivity are substantial.

• A report estimated that PM 2.5 pollution caused economic losses of approximately 346 billion Yuan (1.1% of GDP) in China in 2007; OECD analysis indicated combined air pollution costs in Africa reached $450 billion in 2013.

• While air pollution exposures have begun to decline in China, they continue to rise in parts of South Asia.

Climate Change's Health Impacts

• Forecasted adverse health effects from climate change are expected to surpass any potential health benefits over the next decade to century. These effects can be categorized as direct (e.g., heat waves), indirect (e.g., changes in disease vectors), or diffuse (e.g., conflict).

• Diffuse effects may lead to significant disease burdens through mechanisms like migration and famine; mental health impacts arise from all categories.

• Climate change affects food security by impacting availability, access, affordability, utilization for nutritional needs, and safety—leading to harvest failures and price spikes.

Ecosystem and Social Well-being Implications

• Adverse impacts on ecosystems due to climate change also affect services provided to humans. This degradation has broader implications for social well-being beyond human health.

• Increased investment is required due to these environmental changes; air pollution also degrades materials which further exacerbates economic challenges.

Summary of Key Discussions

• Today's session reviewed drivers of environmental change linked with human activities generating emissions while focusing on global environmental status concerning air quality.

• The impact of climate change on human health was discussed alongside its implications for food security and ecosystem stability.

References

The key references included:

1. Global Environmental Outlook

2. Introduction to Environmental Impact Assessment by John Glasson and Ricky Therivel