Tuesday June 06, 2023 \ Market Review & Price Action Lecture

Tuesday June 06, 2023 \ Market Review & Price Action Lecture

Checking Audio and Introduction

The speaker checks the audio and introduces himself. He also gives a brief overview of what he will cover in the live stream.

Audio Check

  • The speaker asks his followers on Twitter to confirm if his audio is good.

Introduction

  • The speaker greets his audience and thanks them for joining.
  • He explains that he will be looking at live price action, but may not have time for teaching or reviewing.
  • The speaker encourages viewers to keep up with the ICT mentorship 2023 playlist on his YouTube channel.
  • He advises new viewers to start with the 2022 ICT mentorship playlist, which has 41 videos.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and not relying on retail logic.
  • He encourages viewers to do their own due diligence by studying charts.

ICT Mentorship Playlist

The speaker discusses his ICT mentorship playlist and how it can help viewers learn about trading.

About the Playlist

  • The speaker recommends the 2022 ICT mentorship playlist as a study program for those interested in learning about trading.
  • He explains that this model removes confusion around when to trade, which session to trade, etc., by focusing on liquidity runs, market structure shifts, and fair value gaps.
  • The speaker clarifies that he does not trade crypto or synthetic things but notes that some students have had success with these assets.
  • He mentions that many funded companies are seeing profitable payouts from his student base.

One-on-One Learning

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience with one-on-one learning and how he has achieved a high level of accuracy in trading.

Paid One-on-One Learning

  • The speaker has experience with paid one-on-one learning.
  • He would go through charts and explain what to expect in price action.
  • He has achieved a high level of accuracy, which has been consistent for years.

Trading on Different Time Frames

In this section, the speaker discusses how his trading model can be used on different time frames and addresses concerns about trading on lower intraday charts.

Using Model on Different Time Frames

  • The speaker's trading model can be used on intraday and higher time frame charts.
  • There are many examples available when using shorter time frame charts.
  • Consistency in analysis leads to routine results.

Concerns About Lower Intraday Charts

  • Some traders may not want or be able to trade lower intraday charts.
  • The same approach can be applied to other time frames as well.

Take Your Time

In this section, the speaker advises traders to take their time before risking real money and shares his personal opinion about trading in the first year.

Success Stories

  • Many people have found success using the speaker's approach.
  • Some have even traded their own live money successfully.

Personal Opinion About Trading in First Year

  • The speaker does not recommend trading in your first year.
  • There is much to learn about yourself and price action that cannot be appreciated by just watching videos.

Advice for New Traders

  • Go slow and put in work before risking real money.
  • It takes time to learn and become successful.

The Future of Trading

In this section, the speaker talks about the future of trading and how it will become more efficient with increased liquidity.

Increased Liquidity

  • More people using the speaker's content will lead to increased liquidity.
  • This will make trading more efficient and less choppy.

No Disadvantage for Traders

  • Increased liquidity is not a disadvantage for traders.
  • The markets have always worked like this.

Harvesting Liquidity

  • The speaker's approach is to hunt and harvest liquidity.
  • Retail-minded traders use moving average crossovers, which can be profitable but are not as effective as hunting liquidity.

Learning About Price Action

In this section, the speaker discusses his approach to teaching price action and how it differs from other approaches.

Unique Approach to Teaching Price Action

  • The speaker teaches things that you wouldn't learn from anyone else.
  • He communicates these things through charts even though they are not actually in charts.

Specific PD Arrays and Multipliers

  • Specific PD arrays and multipliers are used when looking for setups.
  • These are not models but rather tools used to get into trades.

PDRE Matrix

In this section, the speaker discusses the PDRE matrix and how it is used to communicate time-based charts. The speaker also mentions that there are other PD arrays that do not require a chart.

  • The PDRE matrix is the easiest way for the speaker to communicate using a time-based chart.
  • Other PD arrays do not require a chart but are more complicated.
  • Spending time studying and practicing with the 2022 model of the PDRE matrix can help build experience and trust in its use.
  • The speaker teaches quarterly shifts in the core content for longer-term swing trades.

Macro Perspective

In this section, the speaker talks about macro perspective trading and how it relates to daily and weekly charts.

  • Major intermediate term price swings take place on daily and weekly charts every two to three months.
  • Understanding macro perspective trading can help traders navigate market reviews and analysis.

Trading Under Stress

In this section, the speaker discusses how emotional stress can affect trading performance.

  • It's important to stay away from trading when under stress or feeling unwell as it can lead to impulsive decisions.
  • Emotional stressors such as loss or illness can impact focus and decision-making abilities.
  • Traders must take responsibility for their successes and failures, as they are solely responsible for them.

Market Reviews and Analysis

In this section, the speaker provides an overview of market reviews and analysis using dollar index charts.

  • The goal is to reach up into halfway point of last up close candle prior to rotation lower.
  • Understanding order blocks open price expansion can provide insight into market trends.

Understanding the Logic of Shorting

In this section, the speaker explains the logic behind shorting and how it requires a specific level rather than just a zone.

Shorting Logic

  • Shorting requires a specific level, not just a zone.
  • The last up-close candle has low, opening price, and mean threshold levels.
  • Specific levels are necessary to make informed decisions.

Flight to Quality

In this section, the speaker discusses how uncertainty and concern about various global events can lead to flight to quality or safe haven investments.

Flight to Quality

  • Uncertainty and concern about global events can cause flight to quality.
  • Safe haven investments are considered less risky during uncertain times.
  • The dollar is currently considered a safe haven investment.

Forex Trading and Risk Management

In this section, the speaker talks about forex trading and risk management strategies.

Forex Trading Strategies

  • Forex trading involves predicting where currency values will go.
  • The dollar is often used as an indicator of risk on/risk off scenarios.
  • It's important to have specific levels in mind when making trades.

Risk Management Strategies

  • There is always risk involved in trading.
  • It's important to do your own research and analysis before making trades.
  • Don't rely solely on others' opinions or advice when making trades.

Putting in the Work for Successful Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of putting in time and effort into learning how to trade successfully.

Importance of Hard Work

  • Success in trading requires hard work and dedication.
  • Watching videos or reading advice is not enough to be successful.
  • Spend time analyzing individual sessions and weekly candles to learn from past moves.

Avoiding Common Mistakes

  • Don't rely solely on others' opinions or advice when making trades.
  • Take the time to learn and understand trading strategies before risking real money.
  • Be patient and give yourself time to learn and improve.

Understanding Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker explains what an order block is and how it can be used in trading.

Order Blocks

  • An order block occurs when the market rotates after hitting a key level.
  • The opening price is often used as a reference point for order blocks.
  • It's important to understand what an order block is and how it can be used in trading.

Anchoring on a Higher Time Frame Basis

In this section, the speaker explains how to anchor on a higher time frame basis using candlestick charts.

Using Candlesticks with Longer Wicks

  • When using candlesticks with longer wicks, the two key levels to use are the opening price and the low.
  • If the candlestick has a longer tail, use the consequent encouragement of that tail or halfway point of that little Wick.

Weekly and Daily Order Blocks

  • The speaker discusses weekly and daily order blocks and how they can be used for trading.
  • The majority of sustained price runs were on the buy side delivery, meaning candlesticks that are going up infrequent were the down closed candles.
  • It's important to annotate your levels when trading.

Understanding Price Gravitation

  • The first lesson in trading is understanding where price is trying to gravitate towards.
  • The speaker emphasizes that it's important to include what he's teaching in addition to what you already know in order to be profitable.
  • He also stresses that everything from ICT is fresh and there's always an opportunity.

Market Setups and Timeframes

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding market setups and timeframes. He emphasizes that there is no short supply of setups, but it's crucial to know when to trade and when not to trade.

The Importance of Timeframes

  • The higher time frames are where the majority of your time should be spent.
  • It's easy to get lost on lower time frame charts, especially if you're new.
  • Higher time frames remove most of the noise and false signals that can occur on lower time frames.

Fair Value Gaps

  • A distinct gap between two key levels indicates a sell-side imbalance followed by a buy-side inefficiency.
  • Back-and-forth movements within a range indicate no inefficiency.
  • Inefficiency exists where there is only one roll down without any roll up.

Trading Strategies

  • The speaker looks for fair value gaps to act as support after trading up through them. This makes it an inversion for your value guy. If he didn't hold that expectation, it would be treated as a standard fair value gap in premium relative to the high in low.

Understanding Market Imbalances

In this section, the speaker discusses how he approaches trading and why understanding market imbalances is important.

Importance of Higher Time Frames

  • Do not assume that an inefficiency on a daily chart means that it is a balanced price range. Higher time frames have to be considered.
  • The higher time frames are apparent, while the lower time frames are subordinate. They only behave in a manner that allows certain price delivery within the context and constructs of a higher time frame imbalance or liquidity pool.

Market Control and Fair Value Gap

  • Markets are controlled, and they do not go up or down because of indicators or momentum of buying and selling pressure.
  • The speaker uses Fibonacci retracements to identify fair value gaps. He wants to see if price action gravitates towards it and becomes support.
  • The fair value gap was the initial draw on liquidity when we shifted above a high.

Learning Correctly

  • If you want to learn correctly, you need to study on your own by working from higher time frames down to lower ones.
  • The speaker shares his 30 years of experience with language so that others can learn how to do it too.

Overall, the speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market imbalances and using higher time frames as a guide for trading decisions. He also stresses the need for proper learning through self-study and experience.

Understanding Market Structure

In this section, the speaker discusses how to analyze market structure and identify key levels of interest.

Top-Down Analysis

  • The speaker recommends starting with a top-down analysis to understand the larger market trends.
  • Large institutions and funds use higher time frame charts, so it's important to consider these in your analysis.

Weekly Fair Value Level

  • The weekly fair value level is the first level of interest for the speaker.
  • If the market closes above a fair value gap that should be bearish, it may become an inversion fair value gap instead.

Trading with Precision

  • It's important to read charts independently and understand the logic behind them.
  • This helps build trust in your trading strategy and reduces nervousness when trading.

Grading a Price Swing

In this section, the speaker discusses how to grade a price swing and identify key levels for trading opportunities.

Weekly Bearish Order Block Mean Threshold

  • The speaker identifies the weekly bearish order block mean threshold as a key level of interest.
  • This level is between two price points with a shift in market structure running up into it.

Graduated Experience

  • Understanding market structure is a graduated experience, and it takes time to develop expertise.
  • New traders should be careful not to risk too much on individual trades without fully understanding their strategy.

Market Structure Shift

In this section, the speaker discusses a market structure shift and how to identify liquidity draw and price swing.

Identifying Liquidity Draw and Price Swing

  • The speaker explains that they were doing this stuff before quarter stories.
  • The dealing range is always in the past high to low.
  • The fair value gap acts as resistance broken turn support.
  • Algorithmically, it signals that the price is not going lower but wants to go higher.

Trading Opportunities

  • There are lots of opportunities to make money every single day.
  • Specific hours of the day can be traded like one-hour candles.
  • Breaking down trading strategies into smaller time frames requires experience.

Confidence and Ego Management

In this section, the speaker talks about confidence management and avoiding egomaniac attention.

Managing Confidence

  • Once you have experience, it gives you confidence.
  • Students are now doing what the speaker used to do.

Avoiding Egomaniac Attention

  • It's important not to view oneself as superior or feel the need to prove oneself.

Anticipating Price Movement

In this section, the speaker discusses anticipating price movement based on market structure shifts.

Anchoring Price Movement

  • When there is a shift in market structure, we enter a buy program.
  • The speaker wants the market to show them something before taking a trade.
  • The speaker explains how to identify when not to take a trade based on price action.

Understanding the Bond Market and Dollar Performance

In this section, ICT explains how he uses the bond market to understand how the dollar is likely to perform. He also emphasizes the importance of studying lower time frames for gaining experience.

Using Bond Market to Understand Dollar Performance

  • The daily chart for zbm2023 is used for bonds.
  • The volume has rotated into the September contract.
  • Consolidation in bonds should perform in a mirror image of what the bond market is doing.
  • If buy market goes down on a discount, that would result in the dollar index moving into a premium.

Importance of Studying Lower Time Frames

  • Lower time frame charts provide more teaching examples.
  • Prices behave differently based on different time frames.
  • Price action on daily and one-minute charts can be compared to show that they are not noise.
  • Narrative about price behavior will depend on which time frame is being used.

Trading Expectations and Swing Trading Ideas

In this section, ICT discusses trading expectations and swing trading ideas. He emphasizes that traders should study lower time frames for gaining experience.

Trading Expectations

  • Traders can trade during consolidation periods but may not meet community expectations.
  • Higher time frame charts are better suited for swing trading ideas.

Importance of Studying Lower Time Frames

  • Lower time frame charts provide more experience and examples.
  • Prices behave similarly across all time frames but narratives differ based on which timeframe is being used.

Understanding Price Behavior Across Different Time Frames

In this section, ICT explains how prices behave differently across different time frames. He emphasizes that prices move similarly across all time frames but narratives differ based on which timeframe is being used.

Understanding Price Behavior Across Different Time Frames

  • Prices behave similarly across all time frames.
  • The narrative about price behavior will depend on which time frame is being used.
  • Bond market, Bitcoin, gold, and other assets have different prices but behave similarly across all time frames.

Market Profile and Breakout Trading

In this section, ICT discusses market profile and breakout trading. He emphasizes that he does not use market profiles to make trading decisions.

Market Profile

  • Market profile is a schematic or graph that shows behavior.
  • Volume bars are not used in ICT's analysis as they are considered "Mickey Mouse stuff."
  • Market profiles can be useful for some traders but do not make markets go up or down.

Breakout Trading

  • ICT is not a breakout artist or break-and-retest guy.
  • He wanted the bond market to leave its range regardless of whether it went higher or lower.

Understanding Market Structure

In this section, the speaker uses an analogy of a children's swimming pool to explain how smart money works. He then discusses the fair value gap and how it can be used to identify shifts in market structure.

Smart Money and Market Structure

  • The speaker explains that smart money is like an elephant sitting in a children's swimming pool - it displaces the water.
  • He notes that the fair value gap is important for identifying shifts in market structure.
  • The speaker explains that May 17th was the day when the dollar index was trading inside its fair value gap, which set the stage for an up move in the dollar.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trading Strategies

  • The speaker discusses geopolitical uncertainty and how it affects trading strategies.
  • He notes that he didn't believe that shorting at the fair value gap would be profitable due to macroeconomic factors such as debt ceiling and potential default.
  • The speaker emphasizes waiting for confirmation before making trades during times of uncertainty.

Algorithmic Trading and Rigged Markets

  • The speaker discusses algorithmic trading and how it refers back to previously drawn levels.
  • He notes that there is logic behind price delivery beyond buying and selling pressure, indicating rigged markets.
  • The speaker encourages traders not to be upset about rigged markets but instead take advantage of opportunities presented by them.

Trading Futures vs Forex

  • The speaker compares trading futures with forex, noting individual liquidity pools in forex versus getting the same price in futures.
  • He notes that the market has become more consolidated, and he prefers trading index futures due to their stability.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of adjusting expectations when trading in a slow-moving market.

Conclusion

  • The speaker encourages traders to focus on getting small gains rather than expecting large price swings.

Analysis of the Dollar Index

The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing the dollar index for forex traders and how to determine bias based on market structure.

Importance of Analyzing the Dollar Index

  • Forex traders should focus on analyzing the dollar index as it is a key indicator for trading.
  • The speaker emphasizes that consistency and continuity in trading longevity can be achieved by mining insights from analyzing the dollar index.

Determining Bias Based on Market Structure

  • A bullish bias should be adopted when analyzing the dollar index after a day closes with a bullish trend.
  • From May 17th to May 24th, there was a sell program in Euro, Pound Dollar, Aussie Dollar, and New Zealand versus US Dollar. This means that every day there was a bias to go long in these currencies.
  • If the dollar is going higher, it would be short in Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Aussie Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar. It would be long in Dollar Yen and Swiss Franc.
  • The range between two dates sets up an implied dealing range which is not yet manifest but anticipated.

Anticipating Price Movement

  • By using information from higher time frame weekly and daily charts along with inter-market relationships such as bond market versus dollar index and market profiling, traders can anticipate price movement.
  • Traders should look at levels such as equilibrium at 75.50 and 25 for implied dealing ranges.

Qualifying Market Consolidation

The speaker explains how to qualify market consolidation through analysis of bonds.

Understanding Market Consolidation

  • There has been a shift in market structure leading to consolidation.
  • To qualify this consolidation, traders need to analyze bonds since interest rates affect all markets.

Analyzing Bonds

  • The bonds are currently in a range until they leave that range.
  • Until the bonds leave that range, all markets will be in consolidation.
  • Traders should look for support at the low end of the range and use this as an entry point for swing trades.

Using Implied Dealing Ranges

The speaker explains how to use implied dealing ranges to anticipate price movement.

Understanding Implied Dealing Ranges

  • An implied dealing range is where traders think the market will go based on analysis.
  • It is not a dealing range with actual highs and lows but rather an anticipated price run.
  • Traders can use implied dealing ranges to anticipate price movement and set up deals.

Anticipating Price Movement

  • By analyzing weekly order blocks, traders can determine implied dealing ranges.
  • Traders should look at levels such as equilibrium at 75.50 and 25 for implied dealing ranges.
  • The high of the run is Terminus at the end of the run which traders can use as a reference point when setting up deals.

Analyzing the Market

In this section, the speaker discusses how to analyze the market and anticipate where the next setups will form.

Creating a Price Swing

  • The speaker teaches how to create a price swing and anticipate where the next setups will form before they ever come into the chart.
  • Anticipate somewhere in this area there's going to be some kind of accumulation, consolidate here, and then run.
  • Fair value gap is a measuring gap that did not fully close. This means we can anticipate this price run here to be duplicated to the upside.

Understanding Market Structure

  • We have a shift in market structure right there in the bond market when it left its range going lower. That's going to give momentum to the upside on longs.
  • We're in a buy program for dollar so right away we can anticipate somewhere in here in this area there's going to be some kind of accumulation, consolidate here, and then run.

Trading Strategies

  • Use fair value gaps as your base point extend it from there and you're putting it right on that same I'll show you like what I'm doing this I can give you one second.
  • Trades up into the daily order block and weekly mean threshold order block.

Digging into the Next Level

In this section, the speaker discusses how they are looking at the next level of trading and how they watched people on social media fail in their long positions in Euro.

Reaching Up to 104.54

  • The speaker reviews their last analysis and notes that they were looking for Euro to reach up to 104.54.
  • They mention that every time it was digging higher, people on social media were failing in their long positions in Euro.

Dollar Going Higher Means Euro Going Lower

  • The speaker explains that if the dollar goes higher, then Euro is going to fall and go lower.
  • They note that this is why Euro kept going higher because the dollar was going higher.

Fair Value Gap

  • The speaker points out a weekly fair value gap which is now an inversion fairway gap.
  • They show how it looks on the daily chart and explain how it comes down and hits it before dropping down to some random level.

Analyzing EUR/USD

In this section, the speaker analyzes EUR/USD and discusses its immediate rebalance, fair bet, and order block.

Immediate Rebalance

  • The speaker shows a daily chart of EUR/USD and points out its immediate rebalance.
  • They explain what a bare shorter block is and show where it occurred on the chart.

Gravitating Down to Order Block

  • The speaker mentions that they previously said that EUR/USD would gravitate down to an order block.
  • They show where the order block is located on the daily chart.

Premium Markets Above Equilibrium Continuation Pattern

  • The speaker talks about selling short in a bear market specifically in premium markets above equilibrium continuation pattern or continuation premium.
  • They explain what backtesting is and encourage listeners to study price action.

Dealing Ranges

In this section, the speaker discusses dealing ranges and how to break them down.

Dollar Tree Down into Inversion Fairway

  • The speaker talks about how if they were seeing the dollar tree down into that inversion fairway, then they got on the daily chart.
  • They explain that the inversion pair backup is based on the weekly chart and is a discount for dollar.

Equilibrium 50

  • The speaker shows a high and low on EUR/USD and asks where equilibrium 50 is located.
  • They explain what PD array is and mention that it should be at that level or higher for a premium.

Premium Markets

  • The speaker talks about selling short in premium markets above equilibrium continuation pattern or continuation premium.
  • They show where premium exists on EUR/USD between a certain range.

Retail Traders' Perspective

In this section, the speaker discusses retail traders' perspective on EUR/USD.

Bull Flag Pattern

  • The speaker explains how retail traders see consolidation as a bull flag pattern.
  • They mention that traders think if it can break above a certain high, then it will duplicate its run.

Trading Forex

In this section, the speaker talks about how traders are ultra-scared of losing money and how they can hear you out there. He also discusses liquidity above old highs and lows.

Fear in Trading Forex

  • Traders are ultra-scared of losing money.
  • They don't want to get stopped out or have their profits erode.
  • Trailer stop loss is too tight.

Liquidity Above Old Highs and Lows

  • Liquidity above old highs and lows is important to understand where markets are going to reach for liquidity.
  • Pairing liquidity with some retail-minded idea that would be opposed to what the speaker is teaching can help identify potential setups.
  • Smart money sees price and engages it, while the algorithm delivers price above a high to take into account for buy stocks being brought to the marketplace.

Understanding Market Movements

In this section, the speaker talks about understanding market movements by using inter-market relationships. He also explains how he uses Fibonacci for premium and discount range delineation.

Inter-Market Relationships

  • To understand market movements, use inter-market relationships that would say the opposite.
  • If trying to go short on Euro, look for something that would constitute a long in dollar.
  • If trading a Forex pair with a currency other than the dollar in its name, look for pairs that begin with US dollar in their name like dollar Yen or dollar swissy.

Using Fibonacci

  • The speaker uses Fibonacci for premium and discount range delineation.
  • It helps him know where a setup should likely form within a specific range.
  • The 50 level is used as a measure of equilibrium or higher.

Premium Array Setups

In this section, the speaker talks about premium array setups and how to identify them.

Fair Value Gap

  • The fair value gap is the first premium array setup.
  • It uses month force lessons on The pdra Matrix.

Order Block

  • All down closed candles back and forth price action is balanced.
  • There's no inefficiency, so use the PD array that the market used.
  • Look for opposing draw on liquidity.

Predicting Market Movements

In this section, the speaker talks about predicting market movements by looking at liquidity and equilibrium levels.

Liquidity and Equilibrium Levels

  • To predict market movements, look at liquidity and equilibrium levels.
  • If we are truly overbought, there's no indicator required to see that.
  • Use Fibonacci for delineating a specific range to know where a setup should likely form.

Understanding Price Action

In this section, the speaker talks about how he uses charts to understand price action and identify potential dealing ranges. He also explains how he uses different tools to analyze price swings and determine his trading strategy.

Using Charts to Understand Price Action

  • The speaker uses charts to help him understand price action and identify potential dealing ranges.
  • He focuses on intermediate-term price runs rather than micro-price swings.
  • He looks at daily, four-hour, hourly, and 15-minute charts to identify salient ranges that the market may refer back to.

Analyzing Price Swings

  • The speaker analyzes price swings using different tools such as propulsion blocks, fair value gaps, institutional order flow entry drills, bearish order blocks, etc.
  • He gives an example of a recent price run where he only used the fair value gap tool.
  • He emphasizes the importance of looking at specific details in price action rather than just picking every little micro-price swing.

Trading Strategy

  • The speaker's trading strategy involves trading in the meat middle and avoiding precision highs and lows.
  • He advises against trying to pick tops and bottoms on hard time frame charts but says it is possible on lower time frame charts.
  • He explains how smart money sells short at buy stops or buy-side liquidity levels after taking them out with a premium trade.
  • His approach involves targeting areas where retail traders would be fortifying or protecting their positions.

Trading Clinic

In this section, the speaker provides a live trading clinic where he shares insights into his trading strategies.

Live Trading Clinic

  • The speaker provides a live trading clinic where he shares insights into his trading strategies.
  • He encourages viewers to give him a thumbs up if they want him to do more clinics throughout the week except for Friday.
  • He shares insights into how smart money sells short at buy stops or buy-side liquidity levels after taking them out with a premium trade.
  • He emphasizes the importance of looking at specific details in price action rather than just picking every little micro-price swing.

Identifying a Bearish Order Block

In this section, the speaker identifies a bearish order block in the middle of a shaded area on the daily chart.

Identifying the Bearish Order Block

  • The speaker points out a gap outside of the bearish order block.
  • The speaker explains that if the price stays below a certain candle, it would be an indication to go short.
  • The speaker emphasizes that for the price to go lower, it needs to stay in the lower half of the shaded area.

Understanding PDRA Matrix and Clean Price Action

In this section, the speaker talks about PDRA matrix and how not all PDRA arrays exist in every fractal of price action. He also emphasizes clean price action.

Understanding PDRA Matrix and Clean Price Action

  • The speaker explains that not all PDRA arrays exist in every fractal of price action.
  • The speaker mentions that some people try to derail his studies but he is still able to call trades before they happen.
  • The speaker emphasizes that he is not charging anything for his teachings and encourages people to study every day.
  • The speaker talks about clean price action and compares Euro with Cable charts.

Analyzing E-Mini S&P Weekly Chart

In this section, the speaker analyzes E-Mini S&P weekly chart.

Analyzing E-Mini S&P Weekly Chart

  • The speaker talks about the weekly chart for E-Mini S&P and mentions that he wants to preserve his release by not making it a four-hour session.

Learning without Barriers

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that learning how to trade does not have barriers and is not limited. The focus has been primarily on index features, but the teachings can be applied to other markets as well.

Trading in a Trending Environment

  • If the bond market signals a move lower, it sets the tone for a trending environment where price swings can evolve and allow daily charts to start booking sustained runs.
  • Consolidation in the bond market is a precursor to anticipate consolidation in your specific market.
  • Market profiling stance helps anticipate what type of environment we are in from a macro stance. A time-based chart will give you everything you need to forecast where and when they're going to form.

Anticipating Price Movement

  • Desensitize yourself to uncertainty by anticipating where and when price movements will form over time.
  • Give yourself permission to grow at your own pace. Continuity and consistency are more important than speed.

Technical Analysis of E-mini S&P Weekly Chart

  • The speaker analyzes the weekly chart of E-mini S&P, pointing out areas of liquidity void that indicate absence of trading between two price points.
  • Bonds moving lower out of consolidation frees up markets causing dollar to go higher which indicates risk on or risk off.

The transcript contains some technical terms related to trading.

Market Profiling and Understanding Smart Money

In this section, the speaker discusses market profiling and how to understand smart money in trading.

Market Profiling vs. Manipulation

  • The speaker distinguishes market profiling from manipulation.
  • The e-mini S&P NASDAQ Dao could accelerate lower in shorts but because it is being manipulated heavily, the stock market should not be where it's at.
  • Smart money entities are actively fleecing large funds by trading against them as their counterparty.

Understanding Smart Money

  • Smart money provides liquidity and is constantly in a dance with large funds.
  • Smart money does not see small traders but focuses on large pools of liquidity that large funds bring to the marketplace.
  • Traders need to learn how to navigate certain markets that behave explosively or lethargically depending on smart money's behavior.

Trading Strategies

  • Traders can use even the stronger market to trade slower markets in sympathy.
  • The speaker teaches visibility and experience in knowing which market will outperform another beforehand.
  • NASDAQ is thinner than ES, moves faster, and runs for liquidity faster. It can quickly run farther away than ES.

Using One Medium One Market for Trading

In this section, the speaker explains why using one medium one market for trading is beneficial.

Benefits of Using One Medium One Market

  • Using one medium one market allows traders to use even the stronger market to trade slower markets in sympathy.
  • NASDAQ is a little bit wilder and moves faster than ES because it is thinner.
  • Traders need to learn how to find when NASDAQ will be an outperformer.

Trading Strategies

  • The speaker teaches visibility and experience in knowing which market will outperform another beforehand.
  • Traders can take the speaker's tools, concepts, and logic going forward to understand smart money's behavior better.
  • Traders should not regret studying ES instead of NASDAQ if they followed the speaker's advice.

Understanding Market Price Action

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of being responsible when trading with real money. He also promises to teach his students how to read price action better than any book or course ever could.

The Importance of Responsibility in Trading

  • Traders must be responsible and understand that nothing the speaker says should be a reason for them to press a button and risk real money.
  • The speaker warns traders about the real risks involved in trading and reminds them not to bet the farm on anything.
  • By understanding market price action, traders can become precision freaks who are never scared or fearful but respect the risks that markets provide.

Reading Price Action Better Than Any Book or Course

  • The speaker promises to teach his students how to read price action better than any book, course, or educator ever could.
  • By studying market price action with great detail, traders can anticipate algorithmic price delivery and see setups forming where others may not.

Analyzing Market Price Swings

In this section, the speaker analyzes a gap in the market and teaches his students how to use Fibonacci settings to analyze market swings.

Analyzing Gaps in Market Price

  • The speaker draws attention to a gap in the market and explains that it will be the draw imbalance.
  • Traders can analyze swings from one point to another by looking at lower time frames around gradient levels like 25%, 50%, and 75% on their FIB charts.
  • By studying these levels on lower time frames, traders can see PD arrays and setups forming, helping them anticipate algorithmic price delivery.

Using Fibonacci Settings to Analyze Market Swings

  • The speaker shares his Fibonacci settings with his students and explains that the 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 levels will give them gradient levels for grading a price swing.
  • Traders can use these gradient levels to find longs where they form price-wise.

Anticipating Market Price Movement

In this section, the speaker teaches his students how to anticipate market price movement by using elements in time and understanding where price is likely to be.

Anticipating Market Price Movement

  • The speaker asks his students where VWAP will be on Thursday at 10 AM and explains that he knows where price is going to be because he has elements in time that he uses.
  • Unlike other traders who are victims of uncertainty and have to wait around for something to react to, the speaker's students can anticipate market movements because they understand themselves and what the market is likely to do.
  • By studying market price action with great detail, traders can become precision freaks who know exactly what they're looking for and take trades when they form.

Teaching to Improve Products

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that his goal is to help people improve their products and businesses. He does not want to hurt anyone and is passionate about teaching.

Helping People

  • The speaker's goal is to help people improve their products and businesses.
  • He does not want to hurt anyone.
  • The speaker enjoys teaching and is passionate about it.

ES Discussion on Lower Time Frame

In this section, the speaker discusses ES on a lower time frame.

ES on Four Hour Chart

  • The speaker suggests dropping down to a four-hour chart for discussion on ES.
  • He mentions having long-term followers who were initially haters of him.

Daily Discount Fair Value in the Market

In this section, the speaker talks about daily discount fair value in the market.

Rallying Consolidated Market

  • The market rallied consolidated inside an imbalance and into a breaker.
  • There was a low high lower low less up close candle that extended into the future.
  • The breaker is not a supply and demand zone according to Sam Seiden's logic.

PD Arrays for Higher Prices

In this section, the speaker talks about PD arrays for higher prices.

Reusing PD Arrays

  • As long as the narrative stays intact looking for higher prices, these PD arrays can be reused.
  • Their sponsorship doesn't expire simply because it's traded before.

Large Consolidation Buy Side Market

In this section, the speaker discusses large consolidation buy side markets.

Inefficiencies in the Market

  • The market rallies up and creates another area of equal highs.
  • It drops back down into inefficiencies.
  • There is a little thing that the speaker asks listeners to identify.

Gravitating Up to Liquidity Boy

In this section, the speaker talks about gravitating up to liquidity boy.

Going Above and Closing Above

  • The speaker suggests not looking for shorts as the market gravitates up to liquidity boy.
  • If it goes above and closes above, it's a good sign.
  • The fair value guy would be treated the same way.

Fair Value Gap Shouldn't Close

In this section, the speaker discusses fair value gaps that shouldn't close.

Technical Science Baby

  • If you ever have an inversion fair value gap and have a fair value gap just below that level inside your dealing range, we would want to see it trade through that because we're bullish buy side.
  • This area should stay open for a portion of it.
  • Goldman Sachs should take notes on technical science baby.

Inversion Fair Value Gap

In this section, the speaker talks about inversion fair value gaps.

Signatures of Fair Value Guy

  • All this area should stay open for a portion of it.
  • Some students would go long when price dropped into shaded areas while others would wait for proof with bodies respecting consequent encroachment or high of fair value gap.

Liquidity Pool and Gap Risk

In this section, the speaker discusses a liquidity pool and gap risk in trading.

Liquidity Pool

  • A buy-side liquidity pool is discussed.

Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill

  • The speaker talks about using an institutional order flow entry drill to target specific individuals.
  • The fair value gap is discussed as a support for price.
  • An algorithm will spool and go in the opposite direction if there is a signature showing that either one of these conditions occur: a body closes at the high or closes at the constant encroachment.
  • The speaker mentions focusing on long bullish buying, specifically right up to immediate rebalance.

Gap Risk

  • Gap risk is defined as the likelihood of an unfavorable opening to your position.
  • The speaker advises taking profits when you get something like that because it's likely to come in and close in that gap, but you don't know if it's going to fill that gap and continue higher or close that gap sputter higher a little bit and then Korean lower even still.
  • There are lots of things you have to know when reading or trading, including weighing out all possibilities when entering into trades over weekends or holidays.

English Understanding Price Action

In this section, the speaker discusses how price action works and how traders can use it to make profitable trades.

The Game of Horseshoes

  • The speaker uses the game of horseshoes as an analogy for trading.
  • Traders should aim for their desired price level, even if they don't hit it exactly.
  • Success in trading is being profitable, not necessarily hitting every target.

Long-Term Profitability

  • Long-term profitability is the key to success in trading.
  • Traders should limit their risk and gradually increase their position size after a loss.
  • Consistency and longevity are more important than short-term gains.

New Week Opening Gap

  • The new week opening gap is like the post in a game of horseshoes that traders aim for.
  • Traders who went short were trapped when prices broke lower, leading to a small gap trade down before gravitating back to the new week opening gap.
  • Anticipating fair value gaps requires having a narrative and understanding whether the market is bullish or bearish.

Weekly Chart Gap

  • The weekly chart gap provides liquidity for traders on higher time frames.

Market Structure Shifts and Liquidity

In this section, the speaker discusses market structure shifts and liquidity in trading.

Understanding Market Structure Shifts

  • A drop in price followed by a stop taken indicates a market structure shift.
  • Gaps in trading can indicate a market structure shift.
  • Traders should anticipate that a fair value gap would become an inversion fairbank weaning.

Trading with Liquidity

  • Drawing on liquidity is the most paramount lesson for traders to learn.
  • Every retracement or discount is an opportunity for high-frequency trading algorithms to go long and throw their orders into the abyss up ahead.
  • Being neutral on the sidelines is also a position, which always incurs no risk and is profitable.

Importance of Studying Trading Strategies

  • Traders need to put themselves into these charts and really dig into them to learn how to make money.
  • It takes effort and time to learn how to trade effectively, but it's worth it as there are people out there who are absolutely killing it.

Trading and Funded Accounts

In this section, the speaker talks about the importance of discipline in trading and how it is not for everyone. He also discusses funded accounts and how they work.

Discipline in Trading

  • It may feel complicated at first, but discipline is key to success in trading.
  • Only pursue trading if you are 100% convinced that it is for you.
  • Do not let anyone entice you into thinking that trading is easy or a scam.

Funded Accounts

  • The rage right now is funded accounts with 50 to 150 thousand dollars.
  • To qualify for a funded account challenge, traders need to spend a full calendar year doing everything the mentor tells them to do.
  • The minimum expectation and threshold for transitioning into live fund trading is being completely devoid of any kind of bubbly feeling when making trades.

Transitioning to Live Fund Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses when traders should transition from demo accounts to live fund trading.

Minimum Expectation and Threshold

  • Traders should be consistent in a demo account for at least six months before transitioning to live fund trading.
  • If traders are profitable before coming to the mentor, they can supercharge their practice in a demo account for three months before transitioning.
  • Traders need to be completely desensitized by the end of their six-month demo period.

College Education vs. Trading Education

In this section, the speaker compares college education with trading education.

College Education

  • Many people submit themselves to four years of learning things they will never use in their careers.
  • They pay for college education and still have student loans even if they go broke.

Trading Education

  • Traders should only pursue trading if they are 100% convinced that it is for them.
  • The speaker teaches with a demo account to desensitize traders about being right or wrong.
  • Other mentors have a problem with this approach, but the speaker's students are making money with it.

Dabbling in Trading

In this section, the speaker talks about the dangers of dabbling in trading and how traders need to be profitable, not perfect.

Dangers of Dabbling

  • Traders should not dabble in trading as it will get their fingers burned.
  • If traders are not 100% convinced that trading is for them, they should not touch the markets at all.

Profitability over Perfection

  • Traders do not have to be perfect; they just need to be profitable.
  • The speaker teaches with a demo account to help traders become desensitized about being right or wrong.

Demo Account Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses why he teaches with a demo account and how his students are making money with it.

Teaching with a Demo Account

  • The speaker teaches with a demo account to help traders become desensitized about being right or wrong.
  • Other mentors have a problem with this approach, but the speaker's students are making money with it.

Student Success Stories

  • The number one group of traders making money at funded companies are the speaker's students.
  • Funded companies love the speaker's students.

Emotional Trading and Funded Accounts

In this section, the speaker warns against emotional trading and taking on a funded account if you are not passionate about it. He emphasizes that it takes work and effort to succeed.

Emotional Trading

  • Do not take on a combine challenge or try to do a funded account if you are emotionally charged.
  • Scar tissue builds into a callus, eventually making it too painful to continue.
  • Everyone listening can succeed if they put in the work.

Funded Accounts

  • If you do everything the speaker tells you to do for six months, you can be at the funded portion with a $150,000 account.
  • Use logic and follow what is being taught to make money.
  • Don't try to make a lot of money in a short period of time; focus on getting better payouts than others on the leaderboard.
  • Stick within the narrative shared by the speaker's experience when trading.

Comfortable Periods

  • Be comfortable during periods where there are no trades.
  • The folks who blow their accounts are constantly trying to do something else instead of waiting for trades.
  • The speaker is content during these periods because he has already made profits from higher time frames.

Final Thoughts

  • The information provided is valuable and was not found in any books or courses bought by the speaker when he first started trading.

Trading Non-Farm Payroll

In this section, the speaker discusses trading during non-farm payroll and provides insights on how to trade during this period.

Trading During Non-Farm Payroll

  • The speaker advises new traders not to trade during non-farm payroll.
  • Experienced traders can trade during non-farm payroll by waiting for initial volatility to subside and looking for inefficiencies on higher time frame charts.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of having an understanding of statistical probabilities and liquidity when trading.

Learning from Losing Money

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience with losing money in trading and how he learned from it.

Learning from Losing Money

  • The speaker shares that he lost a lot of money and accounts before realizing that being tenacious was not enough to beat the market.
  • He stopped doing retail things like buying books and courses and started focusing on what winning traders were seeing in price.
  • By taking himself away from all that stuff, he was able to develop an understanding of statistical probabilities and liquidity, which helped him become a successful trader.

High Frequency Trading Algorithms

In this section, the speaker discusses high frequency trading algorithms and how they work.

High Frequency Trading Algorithms

  • High frequency trading algorithms are based on specific criteria rather than patterns or harmonics.
  • There are buy programs that will buy as long as certain criteria are met, while there are sell models that will only short when specific conditions are met.
  • The logic used by smart money to buy and sell is not found in books but can be learned through an understanding of statistical probabilities and liquidity.

Trading Models

In this section, the speaker talks about different trading models and how to find profitability in trading.

Trading Models

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a higher time frame bias and only trading in that model.
  • By looking for inefficiencies on higher time frame charts where large pools of buying and selling occur from the aspect of smart money, traders can find profitability.
  • The PD arrays model is one example of a profitable trading model that can be used during specific times of the day.

How Much Money is Enough?

In this section, the speaker discusses how much money is enough and how people's expectations can be unrealistic.

Realistic Objectives

  • The speaker questions whether a certain amount of money would be enough for people.
  • People often compare themselves to others who have made more money, leading to unrealistic expectations.
  • The speaker emphasizes that making hundreds of thousands of dollars in days is effortless for him but not a realistic objective for students.

Selling Books

  • The speaker states that he does not want people to buy his books and does not care if they sell well.
  • He only wants the books in print as a record of where the information came from.
  • The speaker puts a lot of effort into his YouTube channel and content so that people do not need to buy his books.

Unique Trading Strategies

  • The speaker claims that none of the trading strategies he teaches existed anywhere else before 1996.
  • He offers a one million dollar bounty to anyone who can prove otherwise.
  • Despite others rebranding his strategies, he remains confident in their uniqueness and effectiveness.

Living Your Life

  • The speaker encourages listeners to focus on living their lives instead of worrying about what others think or say about them.
  • He asks listeners what they will do when they acquire the skill set he teaches, suggesting that flexing on social media should not be the priority.

Trading Strategy and Mentoring

In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategy and mentoring style. He emphasizes that his approach may not be suitable for everyone and that he is not obligated to prove anything to anyone.

Trading Strategy

  • The speaker believes that his trading strategy, which involves reading price action, is highly effective.
  • He acknowledges that other strategies, such as using moving averages or breakouts, can also be profitable with sound money management.
  • However, he argues that his approach provides a deeper understanding of what's really going on in the market.

Mentoring Style

  • The speaker claims to have already taught his audience how to trade by providing lectures on entry strategies, partials, and imbalances.
  • He encourages traders to stop buying courses from others and instead focus on learning from him for free.
  • The speaker admits that he initially started sharing his knowledge as a social experiment but fell in love with helping people after receiving positive feedback.
  • He plans to retire from Inner Circle Trader in November 2023 but will keep the email address open for testimonials and updates.

Future Plans

In this section, the speaker talks about his future plans after retiring from Inner Circle Trader.

Retirement Plans

  • The speaker wants to focus on being a husband and father after retiring from Inner Circle Trader.
  • He hopes to receive updates from former students via email or Twitter even after retirement.
  • Although he won't be creating any new videos or tweets after November 2023, all existing content will remain available online.

Impactful Living

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of impacting other people's lives positively. He encourages his students to help others and not just focus on making money.

Transforming Lives

  • The speaker wants to see how his students are impacting other people's lives.
  • He gives examples of how students can help others, such as buying them a house or paying off their student debt.
  • The speaker stresses that it's not all about the money and that there has to be a purpose for it.
  • He shares that when he was younger, he only cared about himself and wanted everything to be about him.

Learning from Mistakes

  • The speaker admits that he made mistakes in his personal life, such as not being there for his wife and children.
  • He acknowledges that he is not the best mentor but hopes that his lectures will help prevent his students from making the same mistakes he did.

Progress Takes Time

  • The speaker encourages his students not to give up if they are struggling with trading.
  • He reminds them that progress takes time and consistency is key.
  • The best students are those who have some experience or reason to stick with it.

Overall, the speaker emphasizes the importance of living an impactful life by helping others. He also acknowledges his own mistakes and hopes to guide his students towards success while avoiding similar pitfalls.

The Importance of Loving Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of loving trading and having the right mindset to succeed in it.

Love What You Do

  • The speaker admits that he may not be presenting the material in the best way possible but emphasizes that his approach is working for many people.
  • To succeed in trading, one must keep showing up, studying, and falling in love with it because it's what they will do for the rest of their lives.
  • If you hate trading or are miserable doing it, then it's not for you. However, if you know that losing is part of the process and have a growth mindset, then you can succeed.

Take Your Time

  • It's essential to relax and let things happen naturally. It took six years for the speaker to find himself, so don't rush into things.
  • Stick with what works for you and find consistency before trying new things. You only need one thing to make all the money you want.

Conclusion

  • The speaker had fun spending time with his audience and invites them to join him again on Wednesday and Thursday.