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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - AM Trend
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - AM Trend

Introduction and Overview

In this video, the speaker discusses commodities and focuses on the AM trend. The AM trend is defined as the price swing that occurs between 9:30 am to noon New York time. The speaker emphasizes that the information provided should be viewed as a paper trade idea only.

Understanding the AM Trend

This section provides an overview of the AM trend.

Key Points:

  • The true day high or low tends to form between 9:30 am and 10:30 am New York time.
  • Between 9:30 am and noon New York time, there is typically a trend or price swing daily referred to as the AM trend or morning swing.
  • To understand how consistent this morning price swing is, it's important to study many days of intraday price action.
  • The London session overnight sets up the price action for the day, followed by the equities market open at 9:30 am in New York.

Understanding Bar Charts

This section explains how to read bar charts.

Key Points:

  • Bar charts always show central time, which is one hour behind in data compared to New York time.
  • When looking at bar charts for different indices such as NASDAQ, Dow, S&P, Dax and FTSE it's important to note that each index has its own unique characteristics.

Examples of AM Trend

This section provides examples of how to identify and trade during an AM trend.

Key Points:

  • It's important to study as many sample sizes of data as possible using barchart.com.
  • The AM trend can be identified by looking at the price action during the London session overnight and then at 9:30 am when the equities market opens in New York.
  • Price trading down into a previous down closed candle bull shorter block is an example of how to identify an AM trend.

Understanding Breakers

This section explains how breakers work and their impact on trading.

Key Points:

  • Breakers are levels where stops are cleared, which can lead to a bullish or bearish breakout.
  • During London, if there is a breaker, it can be used as a catalyst for selling. At the beginning of the New York AM session, traders can anticipate expansion based on institutional order flow.

NASDAQ E-mini and Index SMT

This section discusses the NASDAQ E-mini and Index SMT, and how to compare relative highs and lows between the three indices to confirm bullish or bearish institutional order flow.

Comparing Relative Highs and Lows

  • Between 5 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. New York time, we should compare relative highs and lows when institutional order flow is bullish.
  • One index will fail to confirm a lower low, which is your bullish confirmation for trading the AM trend.
  • The Dow creates a higher low while the NASDAQ E-mini makes a lower low at the beginning of the New York AM session.
  • By looking at these three indices, we can see there's massive accumulation under the Dow futures and on the S&P 500 while the tech sector rallied off of that divergence.
  • When institutional order flow is bearish, we would be comparing comparable highs between 5 a.m. New York time to 9:30 a.m. equities open.

Using Index SMT for Confirmation

  • The Index SMT gives us confirmation that there is something bullish going on behind the scenes.
  • We use some of the precursors in institutional order flow and reference points in previous slides to frame what those catalysts were in respective terms to the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P E-mini Futures.

Trading Indices

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade indices and the importance of timing in relation to institutional overflow.

Correlation and Timing

  • Indices should move in tandem as they drop lower.
  • When it's bullish, one index will fail to do that.
  • The relative terms of institutional overflow determine whether it is bullish or bearish.
  • A specific time window for trading is 5 am to 9:30 am EST.
  • London traders take their lunch break at this time, creating a buildup of orders from UK/European traders.

Trading Strategies

  • Look for opportunities to trade on buying on a stop or wait for price to trade up through an old high.
  • Anticipate the breakout above down closed candles which would otherwise become bullish order blocks at a later time.
  • Buy on a stop on a down closed candle.
  • Trade below an old low and buck that overall trend.

Index SMT Divergence

  • There will be an index smt divergence to qualify the AM trend setups a few times a week.
  • Don't strain your eye looking for them; when it's not obvious, assume it's not there.
  • When you see these patterns like this repeatedly, it builds understanding and anticipatory price skills.

Introduction to AM Trend

In this section, the speaker introduces the concept of AM Trend and explains that it does not always equate to magnitude.

Understanding AM Trend

  • The speaker introduces the concept of AM Trend.
  • The next lesson will cover PM Trend and discuss time and price as they relate to indices.
  • The effects of the New York launch hour on trading will also be discussed in the next lesson.

PM Trend and Time/Price Analysis

This section covers PM trend, time, and price analysis as they relate to indices.

Understanding PM Trend

  • The speaker introduces PM trend.
  • PM trend is different from AM trend because it occurs later in the day.
  • It is important to understand both trends when trading indices.

Time/Price Analysis

  • Time and price are important factors when analyzing indices.
  • Understanding how these factors affect trading can help traders make better decisions.

Overall, this transcript provides an introduction to AM trend and a brief overview of PM trend and time/price analysis. While there are only two sections, they provide valuable insights for traders looking to improve their understanding of index trading concepts.

Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 10
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in June 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.