The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | Margaret Heffernan

The Shift Towards Efficiency in Supermarkets

Embracing Digital Transformation

• Supermarket leadership aimed for increased efficiency through digital transformation, replacing traditional teams with an algorithmic task allocator.

• This shift led to a highly standardized work process where employees performed tasks individually rather than collaboratively.

Limitations of Predictive Efficiency

• The algorithmic system struggled with unpredictability, failing to account for unexpected events like customer behavior or product mishaps.

• Efficiency thrives on predictability; however, the rise of anomalies challenges this principle, highlighting a crucial issue in modern business environments.

Navigating Uncertainty and Complexity

The New Norm: Unpredictability

• Experts are hesitant to make long-term predictions due to the complexity of current global systems, which can change rapidly and unexpectedly.

• Examples include economic crashes and climate-related disasters that defy precise forecasting, emphasizing the need for adaptability over mere efficiency.

Shifting Mindsets: From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case

• Organizations must transition from just-in-time management strategies to just-in-case preparations for uncertain but likely future events (e.g., epidemics).

• CEPI exemplifies this approach by developing multiple vaccines without knowing which will be needed, prioritizing robustness over efficiency.

Building Resilience Through Relationships

Importance of Trust and Collaboration

• Epidemic preparedness relies heavily on established relationships among stakeholders, which take time to cultivate but are essential during crises.

• Similar principles apply in finance; holding more capital may seem inefficient but enhances stability against unforeseen shocks.

Diverse Solutions for Climate Change

• Countries serious about climate change adopt various renewable energy solutions instead of relying on a single source, preparing for unpredictable future scenarios.

• Small nations often pursue multiple trade partnerships as a strategy against market instability, recognizing their limited negotiating power in larger markets.

Experimentation as a Pathway to Change

Challenging the Efficiency Myth

• Organizations entrenched in efficiency should consider experimental approaches; an example is home care nursing in the Netherlands transitioning from rigid schedules to nurse-led decision-making.

• Jos de Blok's experiment demonstrated significant improvements in patient outcomes and cost reductions when nurses were empowered with flexibility and autonomy.

Learning from Failures

Understanding the Role of Creativity and Human Connection in Resilience

The Value of Experiments

• Failed experiments, while appearing inefficient, are crucial for understanding real-world dynamics. They require creativity and bravery.

Innovative Approaches in Team Dynamics

• In England, the Saracens rugby team undertook a unique experiment by taking players on ski trips and social projects to foster team bonding.

• This approach led to renewed loyalty and solidarity among players, enhancing their performance under pressure through what the manager termed "poise."

Productivity Through Recognition

• At Verve, a London tech company, the CEO initiated "Love Week," where employees celebrate each other's contributions.

• Despite being time-consuming, this initiative significantly boosted morale and productivity within the company.

The Importance of Human Skills

• In an unpredictable age, skills like preparedness, coalition-building, imagination, and bravery are vital sources of resilience despite their inefficiency.

Risks of Technological Dependence

• Increasing reliance on technology diminishes our innate human skills; outsourcing decision-making to machines can lead to costly trade-offs.

• For instance, doctors focusing on digital records lose valuable patient interaction time; similarly, parenting apps reduce genuine connections with children.

The Consequences of Standardization in Technology

Limitations of Measurable Outcomes

• Technologies often impose standardized models onto complex realities, neglecting unquantifiable yet essential aspects that truly matter.

Vulnerability from Over-Reliance on Data

• Our dependence on technology may render us less skilled and more vulnerable to complexities in life.

Insights from Business Leaders During Crises

Human Connections as Support Systems

• Conversations with executives facing existential crises revealed that personal relationships were key to resilience rather than data or technology.

The Disconnect Among Young Executives

• Younger executives expressed a lack of workplace friendships due to busyness and perceived inefficiency—raising concerns about future support systems during challenges.

Embracing Uncertainty with Imagination

Navigating an Uncertain Future

• Acknowledging that the future is unpredictable allows for embracing imagination and inventiveness as tools for navigating challenges ahead.

The Call for Courageous Innovation