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ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 15, 2023 Market Review
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 15, 2023 Market Review

Introduction and Sound Check

The speaker checks if the audience can hear him and asks for confirmation. He mentions that he will be discussing five charts and requests a response to ensure everything is working fine.

Sound Check

  • The speaker asks the audience to confirm if they can hear him and see the charts on his screen.
  • He requests a "5 by 5" response to indicate that the volume and audio are clear.

Acknowledging Responses

The speaker acknowledges the responses from the audience confirming that they can hear him.

Confirmation of Audio

  • The speaker thanks Gregory for confirming that he can be heard.
  • He mentions that he wants to see one more confirmation before proceeding.

Additional Confirmation

The speaker receives additional confirmations from the audience, expressing gratitude for their responses.

Additional Confirmations

  • The speaker thanks Destiny, Silent Watcher, Yon, and Rea for confirming that they can hear him.
  • He expresses appreciation for their participation.

Discussion of Dollar Index Weekly Chart

The speaker begins analyzing the dollar index weekly chart, mentioning his approach to annotating levels on his notepad instead of cluttering the chart. He discusses price action and identifies potential trading ranges based on specific levels.

Dollar Index Analysis

  • The speaker explains his preference for keeping charts clean by writing down levels on a notepad instead of annotating them directly on the chart.
  • He notes an imbalance in price action and mentions a small inefficiency in trading back down into it.
  • There is no significant inefficiency beyond this point.
  • The speaker highlights how the dollar index went back up to a previous week's high and stopped, indicating potential range-bound trading.
  • He mentions that if there is a daily close above a specific level, he would expect the dollar index to trade higher into another area.
  • Until there is a daily close above this level, the speaker anticipates the market to remain within the range of the previous week's low and that specific level.

Market Ranging Between Levels

The speaker emphasizes that until there is a daily close above a certain level, he expects the market to continue ranging between two specific levels.

Market Range Expectation

  • The speaker reiterates his expectation of the market remaining in a range until there is a daily close above a particular level.
  • He clarifies that any closing above this level would shift his focus towards expecting an upward move.
  • The speaker acknowledges potential geopolitical events and their impact on market dynamics but states that he cannot predict where the market will open due to these uncertainties.

Conclusion

The transcript provides an overview of the speaker's analysis of the dollar index weekly chart. He discusses price action, identifies potential trading ranges based on specific levels, and emphasizes the need for a daily close above a particular level to indicate an upward move. The speaker also acknowledges potential geopolitical events impacting market dynamics.

New Section

The speaker discusses the reasons for expecting a trading range environment until there is a definitive close above the upper quadrant. They mention factors such as uncertainty due to potential terrorist actions or war responses, fear and greed in the marketplace, and the winding down of activity towards the end of the year.

Expecting a Trading Range Environment

  • The speaker believes that there will be a trading range environment until there is a definitive close above the upper quadrant.
  • Factors such as uncertainty due to potential terrorist actions or war responses, fear and greed in the marketplace, and the winding down of activity towards the end of the year contribute to this expectation.
  • The speaker mentions that if there is no close above a certain level, it would indicate a need for consolidation.
  • Regardless of whether they are right or wrong about their analysis, they believe that the dollar will go higher.

New Section

The speaker analyzes the daily chart and highlights their preference for an open breakaway gap. They discuss levels to watch and express caution about taking action without clear signals.

Analyzing the Daily Chart

  • The speaker notes that there was a strong reaction on Thursday and Friday, indicating potential further downside movement.
  • They prefer to see an open breakaway gap without retesting or repricing of previous levels.
  • The speaker mentions specific levels to watch, including below Friday's low.
  • Due to uncertainty about market opening prices on Sunday and Monday, they express caution about taking action without clear signals.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes their preference for leaving a specific range untouched on the daily chart. They explain their reasoning behind wanting it to act as a breakaway gap.

Leaving Range Untouched

  • The speaker prefers not to see any retracement or retesting of a specific range on the daily chart.
  • They want this range to act as a breakaway gap, indicating potential upward movement.
  • The speaker mentions the possibility of a temporary drop below Friday's low before moving higher.

New Section

The speaker discusses their approach to trading and their decision to wait for clear signals before taking action. They mention the importance of monitoring sentiment and potential global events.

Waiting for Clear Signals

  • The speaker explains that they are not going to trade on Sunday or Monday without clear signals due to uncertainty about market opening prices.
  • They emphasize the importance of monitoring sentiment and potential global events that could impact the market.
  • While there may not have been significant events recently, they believe that such events may occur in the future.

New Section

The speaker concludes by summarizing their expectations and comfort with their analysis. They mention remaining in a range until there is a close above a certain level, which would indicate further upward movement.

Summary and Expectations

  • The speaker expects to remain in a trading range until there is a close above a certain level on the daily chart.
  • Once this close occurs, they anticipate further upward movement towards higher time frame imbalances on the weekly chart.
  • Despite potential scenarios where they could be wrong, they express confidence in their belief that the dollar will go higher.

Dollar Index and Market Sentiment

The speaker discusses the relationship between the dollar index and market sentiment, particularly in terms of flight to quality and safe-haven moves. They mention that gold has rallied despite the dollar index's rise, indicating an event-driven market.

  • The dollar index may stay within its current range or potentially drop below fair value.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of a daily close above the upper quadrant on the weekly chart for considering long ideas on the dollar and short ideas on euro or cable.
  • They caution against taking trades without sufficient information and being cautious due to high levels of risk in the current market environment.

Cautious Approach to Trading

The speaker explains their cautious approach to trading, especially when risking real money. They highlight the need for more assurance before engaging in trades due to potential unexpected events that can disrupt markets.

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of being careful and appreciating the high levels of risk in current market conditions.
  • They clarify that a drop in price does not signify a buying opportunity for the dollar or selling opportunity for euro-dollar unless specific conditions are met.
  • The speaker aims to build an audience interested in futures trading as well, as it provides opportunities even if forex declines.

Monitoring Dollar Index and Gold

The speaker discusses monitoring both the dollar index and gold, noting their unusual correlation recently. They explain how event-driven factors and central bank actions can influence these markets.

  • The speaker expresses concern about gold moving in tandem with the dollar instead of exhibiting a diametrically opposed relationship.
  • They attribute this correlation to an event-driven market where gold is manipulated and considered a safe haven asset.
  • Central banks' efforts to increase their gold supplies due to plans for central bank digital currencies contribute to this dynamic.

Importance of Price Levels and Filtered Engagement

The speaker emphasizes the significance of specific price levels and their filter for engagement in trading. They explain their cautious approach and willingness to miss opportunities if conditions are not met.

  • The speaker stresses the importance of a daily close above a specific price level on the weekly chart for considering trades.
  • They place a filter on their engagement, only taking action if certain criteria are met.
  • The speaker acknowledges that they may miss out on potential trades but prioritize caution due to the possibility of unexpected events impacting markets.

Gold and Dollar Relationship

The speaker further discusses the relationship between gold and the dollar, highlighting their preference for a symmetrical market where they move in opposite directions. They explain factors influencing this relationship.

  • The speaker expresses dissatisfaction with gold and the dollar moving in tandem, as they prefer a situation where one goes higher while the other goes lower.
  • They attribute this correlation to an event-driven market, manipulation of gold prices, and central banks' efforts to build up gold supplies.
  • The speaker mentions that even if forex declines, index futures and commodities will always provide trading opportunities.

Timestamps have been associated with relevant sections based on provided information.

New Section

The speaker discusses the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States regarding oil sales and the use of the US dollar as a currency.

Relationship with Saudi Arabia and Oil Sales

  • The US has had a relationship with Saudi Arabia where they protect them in exchange for selling oil only in US dollars.
  • This arrangement has helped prop up the US currency, but it is now shifting as Saudi Arabia allows interest in purchasing their oil outside of the dollar.

New Section

The speaker talks about the illusion of currency and how it relates to the gold standard.

Illusion of Currency

  • Since coming off the gold standard, there has been an illusion that there is nothing backing up currencies.
  • The US played a role similar to mafia with Saudi Arabia, protecting them while asking them to sell oil only in US dollars.

New Section

The speaker discusses how Saudi Arabia's departure from selling oil exclusively in US dollars could have significant implications.

Departure from Selling Oil in Dollars

  • It is asinine that another country's commodity, such as oil, has propped up the value of the US dollar.
  • If other countries follow suit and stop using the dollar, it could lead to dire economic consequences for the United States.

New Section

The speaker highlights how Russia and China are forming alliances against the dominance of the US dollar.

Alliances Against Dollar Dominance

  • Russia and China are building a fortified union against the greenback or the dollar, and the US is not taking any action.
  • Other nations are also siding with these alliances, leading to a shift in global power dynamics.

New Section

The speaker warns about the potential consequences of a devalued US dollar.

Concerns About Devaluation

  • If the US dollar loses its influence and value, it could lead to economic turmoil similar to what happened in Venezuela.
  • The speaker expresses concerns about trading in Forex due to an anticipated decoupling that could destroy brokerage firms and financial institutions.

New Section

The speaker explains why they believe currencies are currently being targeted.

Targeting Currencies

  • Currencies are the primary target for devaluation as other nations aim to reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
  • The speaker emphasizes that there may be ripple effects in other markets such as futures, commodities, and bonds.

New Section

The speaker discusses how other nations are standing against the dominance of the US dollar.

Opposition Against Dollar Dominance

  • Many powerful nations no longer want to rely on the US dollar and reject its influence as a world police currency.
  • The average person may not be aware of this shift because they still receive dollars in their paycheck without considering its global implications.

New Section

The speaker analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar.

Relationship Between Gold and Dollar

  • Gold's movement will determine whether the dollar stays in a range or continues to rise.
  • The speaker anticipates that gold's rally could cause the dollar index to drop, but further analysis is needed.

New Section

The speaker explains the complexity of their analysis and decision-making process.

Complex Analysis and Decision-Making

  • The speaker acknowledges that their statements about the dollar index cannot be summarized in a few seconds and require careful consideration of various factors.
  • They emphasize the importance of monitoring gold's movement alongside the dollar index.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of a symmetrical market and the relationship between different assets such as the dollar, gold, and equities.

Understanding Symmetrical Markets

  • A symmetrical market is one where assets move in opposite directions. For example, if someone is bullish on the dollar, there should be weakness in gold and lower movement in foreign currencies.
  • It is important to consider the effects of gold when analyzing the dollar index. Simply looking at the dollar index alone may not provide a complete picture.
  • Forex pairs and currencies often work mark-to-market, meaning they move in tandem with each other based on market conditions. However, certain currencies like the pound tend to have their own characteristics and can behave differently.

New Section

In this section, the speaker focuses on analyzing the weekly chart of euro-dollar (EUR/USD) and shares insights about anticipating market movements.

Analyzing EUR/USD Chart

  • The speaker presents a weekly chart of EUR/USD and zooms in for analysis.
  • Anticipating market movements requires experience and understanding various factors beyond just knowing that a stronger dollar leads to risk-off sentiment.
  • Many books and resources only provide regurgitated information without discussing other important factors that influence markets.
  • The speaker mentions volume balance and how price action has moved lower after trading up into previous highs.
  • The driver for further movement in EUR/USD will depend on catalysts such as terrorist attacks or geopolitical events that create chaos and fear in markets.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses potential scenarios that could cause Euro to accelerate downwards.

Potential Catalysts for Euro Movement

  • If there are terrorist attacks or significant events happening within mainland US or globally, it could cause the dollar index to rise sharply. This may also accompany a rise in gold prices.
  • Events like bus or building bombings, incidents near the New York Stock Exchange, military bases, or large gatherings can create chaos and fear in markets.
  • If these events occur, Euro could accelerate downwards towards a specific area on the chart by the end of the year.

New Section

In this section, the speaker reiterates their belief that both EUR/USD and the dollar index will move higher before reaching an inefficiency point.

Quarterly Shift Analysis

  • The speaker maintains their belief that both EUR/USD and the dollar index will gradually move higher but expects them to reach an inefficiency point.
  • The potential catalyst for further movement is uncertain but could be driven by geopolitical events or other factors causing chaos and fear in markets.

The transcript does not provide timestamps beyond 2221 seconds.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their expectations for the Euro to CHY trade and the potential for it to move lower due to global events. They also mention the importance of understanding the underlying narrative and geopolitical factors in making trading decisions.

Expectations for Euro to CHY Trade

  • The speaker anticipates a potential trade down into a specific area for the Euro to CHY.
  • They mention that while it doesn't guarantee a stop at that level, they see a likelihood of it reaching that area quickly due to global events.
  • The speaker emphasizes the need to consider all the things happening in the world when analyzing currency movements.

Dollar Expectations

  • The speaker mentions applying their expectations for the dollar early on but reversing them in terms of direction.
  • They clarify that they expect higher dollar movement rather than lower, and do not anticipate a top in the dollar index due to ongoing global events.
  • Geopolitical factors are highlighted as reasons why there is no expectation of a high forming in the dollar.

New Section

In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the daily chart for Euro and discusses market structure and its implications.

Analysis of Daily Chart - Euro

  • The speaker states that there is no significant inefficiency in the chart that would indicate an anticipated retracement followed by higher movement.
  • They explain how a low-high-lower-low pattern could be viewed as bullish if conditions were favorable, but emphasize that current market conditions do not support such an interpretation.
  • Understanding market structure shifts and distinguishing them from simple stop runs requires macro-level understanding and analysis.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes their focus on observing geopolitical events and highlights potential risks associated with conflicts in various regions.

Importance of Geopolitical Factors

  • The speaker mentions their focus on geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, as they believe it will have a significant impact on market movements.
  • They highlight ongoing conflicts and tensions in the region, such as those between Israel and Gaza, Iran, and other Arab nations.
  • The speaker warns that these events could escalate quickly and create fear in the marketplace, leading to unexpected market reactions.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the potential for larger range expansions towards the end of the year and how it aligns with their expectations for the dollar.

Larger Range Expansions and Dollar Expectations

  • The speaker explains that there are typically larger range expansions towards the end of the year.
  • They mention that if conditions were bearish for the dollar and all other factors aligned with their analysis, certain price movements would be considered bullish breakers.
  • A specific inefficiency is pointed out on a chart related to a small gap, which influences their bullish outlook on the dollar.

New Section

In this section, the speaker provides further analysis of a specific chart pattern related to Euro and discusses potential resistance levels.

Analysis of Chart Pattern - Euro

  • The speaker highlights a meaningful drop in Euro's price movement but notes that there is still potential for further downward movement.
  • They explain how overlapping candlestick patterns indicate back-and-forth movement without establishing clear market structure.
  • Despite dropping below a specific level (Gap), it does not mean it is no longer relevant; instead, attention shifts to another potential resistance level.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their expectations for future price movements based on chart patterns and geopolitical factors.

Future Price Movements

  • The speaker anticipates a move lower followed by a potential retracement and resistance at a specific level.
  • They express bullishness on the dollar if it follows this expected pattern, which would lead them to look for short positions in NASDAQ.
  • The importance of experience, understanding models, and trusting oneself is emphasized in making trading decisions.

Timestamps are approximate and may not align perfectly with the provided transcript.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of trading in high probability conditions and managing risk. They emphasize the unpredictability of market openings and the need to have control over one's trades.

Trading in High Probability Conditions

  • The speaker highlights the significance of trading in high probability conditions where the risk is realistic and manageable.
  • They caution against trading in situations with infinite risk or where it is difficult to predict market movements.
  • Gap risk is mentioned as a concern when carrying over positions from previous days, as there is no control over where the market will open.

Lack of Control Over Market Openings

  • The speaker explains that there is no mechanism or tool available to accurately predict the opening price of a new week.
  • They share their personal experience of trying to develop models and algorithms for predicting opening prices but finding them unreliable.
  • It is emphasized that once the market opens, there is information available to analyze and make informed decisions.

Importance of Opening Range

  • The concept of an opening range for a new week is introduced, consisting of the gap between the previous week's closing price and the current week's opening price.
  • The speaker suggests that if a gap occurs multiple times, it should be respected by traders.
  • They explain that if a gap is traded up to its upper high, it implies weakness in the market.

Specific Trading Strategy

  • A specific trading strategy involving observing how price behaves around certain levels within the opening range is outlined.
  • The midpoint level within the opening range (1.4969) is provided as an example.
  • If price remains below this level (specifically 1.0497), it indicates weakness, similar to a breakaway gap, which would make them bullish on dollar and look for short opportunities on rallies in NASDAQ.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their approach to trading and risk management. They emphasize the importance of having a clear plan and being comfortable with the risk involved.

Having a High Probability Scenario

  • The speaker explains that they have specific criteria for identifying high probability scenarios in trading.
  • They stress that unless these criteria are met, they will not take any action in the market.
  • By having a well-defined plan, they can avoid fear of missing out (FOMO) on potential trades.

Risk Management and Comfort with Risk

  • The speaker acknowledges that their approach may not be suitable for everyone and encourages traders to find what works best for them.
  • They highlight the importance of being comfortable with the risk involved in each trade.
  • An example is given where they are willing to risk $6,000 on a position, which may seem high to others but is acceptable based on their risk tolerance.

Scaling Strategies

  • The speaker mentions that strategies can be scaled down or adjusted based on individual preferences and available leverage.
  • They emphasize that everything is relative and should be tailored to fit one's comfort level.
  • It is noted that there may be excitement and big moves in the market, prompting the need for higher time frame analysis and consideration of other markets' indicators.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of having a clear trading plan and sticking to it. They discuss how taking no trades for an entire week can be a valid decision if market conditions do not meet their criteria.

Sticking to Trading Plan

  • The speaker shares an example of how they outline their trading plan before market opening hours.
  • They explain that by doing so, they remove any attachment to being right or wrong at that moment since they have already established their criteria for taking trades.
  • This approach allows them to avoid impulsive or emotional trading decisions.

Accepting No Trades

  • The speaker poses the question of whether traders are willing to go through an entire week without taking any trades.
  • They emphasize that if market conditions do not meet their criteria, they are comfortable with not taking any action.
  • This mindset helps them avoid gambling-like behavior and focus on making reasonable trades.

Risk Assessment and Comfort

  • The speaker mentions that their risk assessment may differ from others, but it is based on their own comfort level.
  • They give an example of risking $122,000 on a trade, which may seem excessive to some but is within their risk tolerance.
  • It is emphasized that each trader should adjust their strategies and risk management based on what fits them best.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a logical approach to trading and being comfortable with accepting risks. They discuss their analysis of the forex market, specifically focusing on the Euro and Pound against the Dollar.

Analysis of Euro

  • The speaker suggests a potential sell opportunity for the Euro.
  • They highlight a specific level they are looking for the Euro to trade below.
  • Depending on where the market opens on Sunday, there may be a range to consider.
  • The speaker mentions two levels they are monitoring for potential trades.

Analysis of Pound

  • The speaker discusses an inefficiency on the weekly chart for Pound.
  • They explain how they want to see a daily close below a certain level to confirm their bearish view.
  • If this level is breached, it could lead to further downside movement in Pound.
  • There is a possibility of reaching lower levels in the long term.

Timestamps have been associated with relevant bullet points.

New Section

The speaker discusses the analysis of the daily chart for trading opportunities in the forex market, specifically focusing on the euro-dollar pair and pound-dollar pair. They explain their approach to identifying fair value gaps and how they interpret different colors on their charts.

Analysis of Euro-Dollar Pair

  • The speaker identifies a potential bullish breaker pattern on the daily chart.
  • They mention that there is no ideal fair value gap for trading opportunities.
  • A deep retracement is not preferred by the speaker, who does not follow harmonic patterns.
  • If the price trades below a fair value gap, it would be treated as an inversion.

Color Scheme for Fair Value Gaps

  • The speaker uses different colors to represent different types of fair value gaps.
  • Inversions are represented by a specific color (e.g., pink or red hue).
  • Green or blue shades indicate fair value gaps that may act as support or offer buying opportunities.

Intermarket Relationships and Analysis

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of intermarket analysis in supporting trade ideas.
  • They discuss using other markets to confirm or negate trade setups.
  • The goal is to find high probability trades by considering multiple factors, rather than solely relying on one market or pattern.

Interactive Study and Trade Management

  • The speaker highlights that their analysis is interactive and subject to further study throughout the week.
  • They explain that even if a fair value gap fails, it can still provide valuable information for future trades.
  • Managing real trades requires careful consideration of various factors, including responding to questions from viewers.

New Section

The speaker continues discussing their analysis and expectations for trading opportunities in relation to intermarket relationships. They outline criteria for shorting pound-dollar based on dollar index movements and highlight the importance of studying patterns manifesting later in the week.

Expectations for Dollar Index and Pound-Dollar

  • The speaker expects the dollar index to trade lower towards a specific level.
  • If the price trades through that level and fails to rally, it would confirm continued upside potential for the dollar.
  • Any rallies in pound-dollar would be treated with suspicion and potentially faded.

Importance of Intermarket Relationships

  • The speaker reiterates the significance of using intermarket relationships to support trade ideas.
  • They emphasize blending various factors to determine high probability trades.
  • It is not a matter of being right or wrong immediately but rather studying patterns and adjusting strategies accordingly.

Understanding Fair Value Gap Failures

  • Fair value gaps that fail in their function of bullishness or bearishness become inversion fair value gaps.
  • Traders should not be upset if a trade based on a fair value gap gets stopped out, as it can still provide valuable information for future trades.

New Section

The speaker concludes their analysis by summarizing the importance of intermarket relationships and how they inform trading decisions. They encourage viewers to study the provided criteria throughout the week and observe any patterns that may manifest.

Using Other Markets to Support Trade Ideas

  • The speaker emphasizes using other markets to support or negate trade ideas, rather than relying solely on one market or pattern.
  • This approach helps increase the probability of successful trades.

Interactive Study Approach

  • Viewers are encouraged to study the provided criteria throughout the week and observe if they offer any insights or opportunities.
  • The analysis presented is not a definitive prediction but rather an explanation of what the speaker is waiting for in terms of high probability setups.

Managing Expectations

  • It is important to understand that even if a fair value gap fails, it does not mean all trading strategies are ineffective.
  • Failed fair value gaps can still provide valuable information for future trades, especially when they transform into inversion fair value gaps.

The transcript provided does not contain any timestamps beyond this point.

Insight on Overcoming Fear of Missing Out and Losses

The speaker discusses the importance of gaining insight and perspective to overcome the fear of missing out and losses in trading. They draw a parallel between paying for higher education to gain knowledge and paying for losses as a learning experience in trading.

Gaining Perspective through Losses

  • Paying for losses is akin to paying for additional education in trading.
  • Losses provide valuable insights and perspectives.
  • Treating losses as learning opportunities rather than catastrophic events is crucial.
  • Avoid risking the entire funded account or blowing up the account due to fear or lack of judgment.

Trading with Logic and Sound Strategies

  • Engage in trades that make sense and have a logical basis.
  • Avoid reckless gambling or relying solely on one trading method.
  • Embrace the possibility of taking losses without fear of failure.
  • Recognize that failures can provide valuable insights into market behavior.

Understanding Inversion Fair Value Gap

  • Inversion fair value gap refers to an expected price behavior that deviates from what was anticipated.
  • It occurs when price fails to behave as predicted, offering new insights.
  • By analyzing buy-side and sell-side movements within this gap, traders can identify potential opportunities.

Balancing Price Range Expectations

  • Traders should aim for price to only trade halfway within a fair value gap range after dropping below it.
  • If price fails to reach the upper portion of the range after moving below it, it indicates a balanced price range.
  • This signifies that price is unlikely to return all the way back up, providing an opportunity for shorting.

Repricing Fair Value Gap for Buy-Side Opportunities

The speaker explains how fair value gaps can be repriced based on buy-side opportunities and the importance of understanding market spreads in Forex trading.

Repricing Fair Value Gap

  • Fair value gaps can be repriced to offer buy-side opportunities.
  • When price drops down, it provides sell-side opportunities to reprice the fair value gap.
  • Traders should observe if price only stops at midpoint or just below after hitting the low, indicating a balanced price range.

Understanding Market Spreads in Forex Trading

  • Forex trading involves spreads determined by brokers.
  • The actual spread received may differ from what is advertised.
  • Traders using market orders may not always receive the expected spread.
  • Monitoring and considering spreads is essential for accurate trading analysis.

Expectations and Levels of Respect in Trading

The speaker emphasizes the importance of respecting specific levels and expectations in trading, including avoiding trades above certain levels and understanding market factors such as spreads.

Respecting Specific Levels

  • Traders should avoid seeing price trade above a certain level indicated by a blue line.
  • If price trades down into the upper portion of a fair value gap, it has already offered sell-side opportunities.

Considering Market Factors

  • Market spreads play a significant role in trading outcomes.
  • Brokers may expand spreads beyond advertised rates.
  • Using limit orders can help mitigate unexpected spread variations.

The transcript provided does not contain any timestamps beyond 1:12:12.

Analysis of Dollar and NASDAQ

The speaker expects the dollar to accelerate higher, making short positions in NASDAQ high probability. They anticipate a sell-off below a certain level. The speaker discusses the concept of Fair Value Gap and its significance in determining market direction.

Fair Value Gap and Market Direction

  • The Fair Value Gap indicates an imbalance between buy-side and sell-side activity.
  • If the range only had buy-side offers, it suggests an inefficient sell-side.
  • The speaker explains that the market needs to eventually reprice lower when there is a gap between candles.
  • In this case, the Fair Value Gap was not touched or respected by the market.
  • If the market trades back down below the gap after trading inside it, it indicates a potential short opportunity.
  • A "Mohawk" entry refers to adding to a position when there is a slight move above the fair value gap.

Understanding Inversion Fair Value Gaps

The speaker emphasizes that understanding inversion fair value gaps is crucial for successful trading. They explain how these gaps provide logical references for trade decisions and can be used as models with statistical probabilities.

Importance of Inversion Fair Value Gaps

  • Inversion fair value gaps provide logical references for trade decisions.
  • These gaps tend to repeat more times than they fail, providing an edge in trading.
  • By determining when the market is predisposed to go higher or lower, traders can increase their probability of success.
  • Trading without considering these gaps leads to gambling rather than informed decision-making.

Taking Responsibility for Trading Decisions

The speaker emphasizes personal responsibility in trading decisions. They discuss how traders should not blame external factors but instead focus on their own decision-making process.

Personal Responsibility in Trading

  • Traders should take responsibility for their trading decisions.
  • Blaming external factors or gaps for success or failure is not productive.
  • Gaps do not dictate buying or selling; traders make those decisions themselves.

Using Cy Breaker Model for Sell Side

The speaker discusses the Cy Breaker model and its effectiveness in identifying sell-side opportunities. They also share personal experiences and lessons learned from trading on Sundays.

Cy Breaker Model and Sunday Trading

  • The Cy Breaker model is a strong model for identifying sell-side opportunities.
  • The speaker shares personal experiences of trading on Sundays and how this model helped them identify potential trades.
  • They mention the importance of being cautious when trading on Sundays due to market behavior.

Due to the limited content provided, there are no further sections available in the transcript.

Pre-Market Opening Expectations

The speaker discusses the importance of pre-market opening expectations and running scenarios to feel comfortable taking trades. They emphasize the need to be responsible and not punish oneself for missed opportunities.

Importance of Pre-Market Opening Expectations

  • It is important to close the gap between Friday's closing price and Monday's opening price.
  • The speaker wants to see the market trade below this gap without offering support.
  • They advise against feeling upset about not trading Forex, as it is essential to treat it as an inversion fair value play.

Mental Capital and Trade Comfort

  • It is common for unexpected moves to occur in trading.
  • Worrying about missed opportunities can lead to mental drawdown on money that was never risked.
  • By having pre-market opening expectations and running scenarios, traders can feel more comfortable taking trades or letting them go.

Avoiding Impulsive Trading

  • Traders should avoid impulsively chasing prices based on their own assumptions.
  • If a trade goes against expectations, it is important not to hope or pray for it to work out but instead focus on what the market is indicating.

Being Responsible in Trading

  • Traders should be responsible for their own decisions and outcomes in trading.
  • Making money or losing money should be owned by the trader themselves.

S&P Analysis - Weekly Chart

The speaker analyzes the weekly chart of S&P and discusses quarterly shifts in market structure. They explain how higher time frame levels help determine risk tolerance and precise trade execution.

Quarterly Shifts in Market Structure

  • Every 3 to 4 months, there is a shift in market structure that can result in sustained moves for 2 to 3 months (or up to 4 months with some overlap).
  • Higher time frame levels (monthly, weekly, 4-hour) are significant liquidity areas that influence trade decisions.

Determining Risk Tolerance

  • If a lower level is expected to be reached in the long term, trades moving away from higher time frame levels may have a maximum risk of 5%.
  • Trades within the range of higher time frame levels may have a lower maximum risk of around 1.5% leverage.

Precise Trade Execution

  • Having higher time frame levels helps determine when to push the envelope of risk.
  • Intraday trade executions can be precise and specific when framed in relation to higher time frame levels.
  • Maximum risk (5%) can be used when trades align with reaching higher time frame levels.

S&P Analysis - Daily Chart

The speaker analyzes the daily chart of S&P and discusses their preference for the market to stay below a certain level. They explain how this indicates market heaviness and potential resistance.

Market Preference

  • The speaker prefers the market to stay in the lower portion of a specific range on the daily chart.
  • They do not want to see a close above a certain level (4391) as it could indicate a need to retest previous highs and potentially enter an area with volume balance.

Indications of Market Heaviness

  • The fact that the market did not reach volume balance suggests heaviness and reluctance to close within that range.

Timestamps are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source video.

Volume Imbalance and Sell Signal

The speaker discusses a volume imbalance and sell signal that was not addressed in the previous week's rally.

Volume Imbalance and Sell Signal

  • There was a volume imbalance and sell signal that was left unaddressed during the previous week's rally.
  • The speaker explains that this sell signal is characterized by low efficiency and high imbalance.
  • They illustrate the sell signal as a shaded area on a chart.

Wick Analysis

The speaker discusses their approach to analyzing wicks on charts.

Wick Analysis

  • The speaker mentions that they do not want to see the price trade above the halfway point of a wick.
  • Any retracement back up should be limited and held within a specific range.
  • They emphasize the importance of monitoring the closing face on the daily chart to determine market direction.
  • Remaining bearish for ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures) and bullish on dollar is mentioned as their current stance.

Intermarket Relationships and Geopolitical Events

The speaker explains how they consider intermarket relationships and geopolitical events when analyzing markets.

Intermarket Relationships and Geopolitical Events

  • The speaker combines various markets like puzzle pieces to analyze them collectively.
  • They mention considering intermarket relationships, geopolitical events, and wartime events when making trading decisions.
  • Due to uncertainty surrounding these factors, fear in the market increases, leading to exaggerated price movements.
  • Targets may be easily met but can also be surpassed due to fear-driven trading activity.

Risk Assessment in Current Market Conditions

The speaker discusses risk assessment in current market conditions and the importance of trade targets.

Risk Assessment in Current Market Conditions

  • The speaker highlights the need to weigh risks and consider best-case scenarios when taking trades.
  • They suggest having a trade target and exiting 80% of the position before reaching that target.
  • Leaving a portion of the trade open to potentially exceed the best-case scenario exit is recommended.
  • The current market climate is described as one where targets may be surpassed due to heightened volatility.

Trading Mentality and Exits

The speaker discusses their trading mentality, exits, and challenges faced during trading.

Trading Mentality and Exits

  • The speaker acknowledges that their entries are often deemed phenomenal, but exits remain a challenge.
  • Multiple time frames are used to determine exit targets, which can lead to uncertainty in choosing the most appropriate one.
  • External factors like teaching or distractions from others can influence decision-making during trades.
  • Concentration is crucial when trading with real money, as broken focus can lead to impulsive decisions or emotional reactions.

Trading with Real Money

The speaker emphasizes the weight of trading decisions when using real money and potential psychological impacts.

Trading with Real Money

  • When trading with real money, decisions carry more weight compared to demo or simulated trading.
  • Concentration plays a significant role in maintaining discipline and avoiding impulsive actions.
  • Personal biases or external distractions can impact decision-making during trades.
  • Psychological factors like rage or bipolarism may arise if concentration is broken during trading.

Accepting Imperfections and Profitability

The speaker reflects on the importance of accepting imperfections in trading and focusing on long-term profitability. They emphasize the need for a low hanging fruit objective over years of refining strategies.

Embracing Imperfection and Long-Term Growth

  • It is important to accept imperfections in trading while still being profitable.
  • A forgiving state of mind is crucial for success in trading.
  • The speaker encourages having a low hanging fruit objective over years, rather than expecting quick results.

Developing an Exit Strategy

The speaker discusses the potential for students to develop an effective exit strategy that can be consistently applied. They express confidence that someone will come up with a successful method.

Finding an Effective Exit Strategy

  • Students are encouraged to develop a uniform exit strategy that works consistently.
  • The speaker believes that one of their students will discover an amazing exit strategy.
  • They express openness to utilizing a student's successful method for themselves.

Hoping for Student Discoveries

The speaker expresses hope that one of their students will find a successful strategy and shares their willingness to learn from them. They acknowledge their own struggle with settling on target levels.

Hoping for Student Discoveries

  • The speaker hopes that one of their students will find a strategy that works well for them.
  • They express willingness to learn from their students' discoveries.
  • Acknowledging personal struggles, they mention wrestling with imperfections in terms of target levels.

Chart Analysis - ES (E-mini S&P 500)

The speaker briefly mentions analyzing the daily chart of ES (E-mini S&P 500) and highlights the importance of not allowing it to trade above a certain level.

Chart Analysis - ES

  • The speaker mentions analyzing the daily chart of ES.
  • They emphasize the importance of not allowing it to trade above a specific level.

Notable Observation on Chart

The speaker points out a significant observation on the chart and encourages viewers to closely examine it. They mention crossing over something that could have an impact going forward.

Significant Observation on Chart

  • The speaker draws attention to a notable observation on the chart.
  • Viewers are encouraged to closely examine the observation without further explanation.
  • They mention crossing over something that may have future implications.

Potential Impact of Observation

The speaker briefly mentions that the observed crossover may be impactful in the future, but does not provide further details.

Potential Impact of Observation

  • The observed crossover may have potential significance going forward.
  • No additional information is provided about its implications.

Fair Value Gap and Price Expectations

The speaker discusses fair value gaps and how they can indicate price expectations. They address misconceptions about their analysis and emphasize understanding proper usage.

Fair Value Gap and Price Expectations

  • A fair value gap can offer support if bullish or fail if bearish.
  • Misconceptions arise when others misinterpret their analysis without understanding its proper usage.
  • Understanding how fair value gaps behave can provide valuable insights into price movements.

Trading Scenarios with Fair Value Gaps

The speaker explores different trading scenarios involving fair value gaps, considering both bullish and bearish possibilities. They emphasize the importance of observing price behavior.

Trading Scenarios with Fair Value Gaps

  • In a bearish scenario, a gap lower opening followed by trading back up to the fair gaps low can indicate weakness.
  • The speaker prefers the trade to only reach the low or slightly above it, rather than trading to the higher end of the gap.
  • Price behavior through and below a fair value gap provides valuable insights into market dynamics.

Oversold Conditions and Potential Reversals

The speaker discusses oversold conditions and potential reversals in relation to extreme gap openings. They highlight common reactions and expectations in such situations.

Oversold Conditions and Potential Reversals

  • A gap lower opening can create an oversold condition, leading to potential reversals.
  • Traders may rush to chase prices lower, assuming a breakout to the downside.
  • Observing price behavior around fair value gaps can help identify potential reversals.

Using Information for Short Trades

The speaker explains how traders can use information about fair value gaps for short trades. They provide guidance on setting stop losses based on consequent encroachment.

Using Information for Short Trades

  • Traders can use information about fair value gaps as a mechanism for getting short.
  • Stop losses should be set just above consequent encroachment, allowing for small deviations like little mohawks or coloring outside the lines.
  • Setting stop losses too tight may result in unnecessary stop-outs due to increased market volatility.

Market Volatility and Stop Losses

The speaker cautions against using very tight stop losses in the current market climate due to increased volatility. They emphasize the importance of experience and not being too greedy.

Market Volatility and Stop Losses

  • The current market climate exhibits increased volatility, making very tight stop losses risky.
  • Traders may get stopped out unnecessarily if they set stop losses too close to the entry point.
  • Experience is crucial in recognizing when a trade is still valid after being stopped out due to a tight stop loss.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding order flow and institutional order in trading. They emphasize that real order flow is not dependent on level two data or volume profile, but rather on how each candle supports price movement. The speaker also mentions the significance of PD arrays and their potential to fail, providing insights for counter trade ideas.

Understanding Real Order Flow

  • Real order flow is not related to level two data, AB Dom depth of Market, or volume profile.
  • It is about how each candle supports price movement.
  • Algorithmic buying plays a role in supporting price and creating fluctuations.
  • The speaker's Enigma concept aligns with market algorithms and allows for precise predictions.

Importance of Down Closed Candles

  • When bullish on price, down closed candles should support price as bullish order blocks.
  • Conversely, when bearish on price, up closed candles should offer downside delivery as bearish order blocks.
  • This demonstrates real institutional order flow without the need for depth of Market or spoofing.

Precision in Commodity and Futures Markets

  • Commodity and Futures markets provide more precision compared to Forex due to standardized contracts.
  • Traders can focus solely on whether they are bullish or bearish without worrying about other factors like interest rate differentials.

PD Arrays and Counter Trade Ideas

  • PD arrays have an inverse nature that can be used for counter trade ideas.
  • If a mitigation block fails, traders can capitalize on an inversion by trading it inversely with reduced leverage.
  • Losing trades are inevitable but should not be feared as they can still lead to profits.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding PD arrays and their potential for failure. They explain how traders can use this knowledge to their advantage by capitalizing on counter trade ideas and mitigating losses.

Understanding PD Arrays

  • PD arrays have an application of wanting to see them fail for gaining insights.
  • Traders can use PD arrays for counter trade ideas and capitalize on inversions.
  • Mitigation blocks failing can provide opportunities for inverse trading.

Overcoming Fear of Losing Trades

  • Traders should not fear losing trades as they are inevitable, especially for beginners.
  • Judging and picking the right trades is crucial, and losses can be mitigated or turned into profits.

New Section

In this section, the speaker reassures traders that there is no need to fear losing trades. They emphasize the importance of judgment in trading and highlight how losses can be managed effectively.

Managing Losing Trades

  • Losing trades are a normal part of trading, especially for beginners.
  • Traders should focus on their ability to judge and pick trades accurately.
  • Losses can be managed through effective risk management strategies.
  • There is no reason to fear losing trades as they can still lead to profitable outcomes.

Understanding the Balance Between Motivation and Impulse

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenge of balancing motivation and impulse in trading decisions. They emphasize the importance of sticking to a disciplined approach and not abandoning one's trading model based on impulsive reactions.

Finding Flexibility within Trading Models

  • The speaker highlights that price action dynamics repeat frequently, and when a trading model fails, it can be an opportunity for learning.
  • Some students adapt their models to fit their expectations on price movement, without breaking the rules taught by the speaker.
  • Having flexibility within a trading model allows traders to adjust their approach based on market conditions.

Assessing Opportunities and Partial Profits

  • Traders can identify potential resistance or support levels based on previous price levels.
  • Taking partial profits before reaching these levels can be a strategic decision based on individual risk tolerance and leverage.
  • There is no fixed criteria for profit-taking; traders need to consider various factors such as leverage, entry point, and risk management.

The Complexity of Trading Decisions

This section explores the complexity involved in making consistent trading decisions. The speaker emphasizes that there is no one-size-fits-all approach and that perfection is not necessary for profitability.

No Easy Recipe for Consistent Trading

  • Trading decisions cannot be simplified into a step-by-step process with fixed parameters.
  • Each trade involves multiple variables such as risk, profit potential, precision, and personal preferences.
  • Achieving consistency requires understanding oneself as a trader and finding an approach that aligns with individual strengths.

Contentment with Profitability

  • Traders should focus on being content with profitable trades rather than constantly seeking more.
  • Even small profits can contribute to overall success.
  • The initial goal should be to break even and avoid significant losses, gradually building confidence and skill.

Discovering Personal Trading Style

This section emphasizes the importance of discovering one's personal trading style and adapting risk management strategies accordingly.

Maintaining Equity Balance

  • Traders should aim to maintain their equity balance close to the initial investment until they understand their trading style.
  • It is crucial to avoid significant losses at the beginning of a trading journey.

Adapting Risk Management

  • Traders need to assess their precision in executing trades before using smaller stop-loss levels.
  • Rushing into tight stop-loss levels without sufficient precision can lead to increased risk and potential losses.
  • Starting with larger stop-loss levels allows traders to manage risk effectively while gaining experience.

Learning Patience and Money Management

This section highlights the importance of patience, money management, and gradual progression in trading.

Managing Trades Effectively

  • Traders need to learn how to hold onto trades without rushing to break even or secure immediate profits.
  • Developing patience is essential for successful trade management.

Gradual Progression with Leverage

  • Starting with smaller contract sizes allows traders to focus on learning and improving their skills.
  • Rushing into larger contracts without sufficient experience can lead to unnecessary risks and potential losses.
  • Gradually increasing leverage as skills improve is a more sustainable approach.

The transcript provided does not include any further sections.

Impulsive Trading and Risk Management

The speaker discusses the importance of avoiding impulsive trading and taking on excessive risk. They mention that even their own son is prone to impulsively taking on high-risk trades. It is emphasized that traders should only engage in trades they are truly ready for, with an appropriate level of risk.

Impulsivity and Risk

  • Traders often engage in impulsive trading, taking on trades they are not ready for or with excessive risk.
  • The speaker mentions their own son as an example of someone who engages in impulsive trading.
  • It is important to assess one's readiness and only take on trades with a suitable level of risk.

Setting Tight Stop Losses

The speaker discusses the importance of setting tight stop losses. They mention that they prefer to keep the stop loss just above consequent encroachment. If a trade reaches this level and gets stopped out, it is considered acceptable as long as it follows the outlined rules.

Setting Stop Losses

  • The speaker prefers to set tight stop losses just above consequent encroachment.
  • If a trade reaches this level and gets stopped out, it is considered acceptable as long as it follows the outlined rules.

Resistance Levels and Fair Value Gap

The speaker explains how resistance levels can be identified based on the fair value gap. If the market opens below a certain low point and then trades back up to that level, it could act as resistance. They emphasize that if prices stay below consequent encouragement or just one tick above it, there is a high probability of resistance.

Resistance Levels Based on Fair Value Gap

  • Resistance levels can be identified based on the fair value gap.
  • If the market opens below a certain low point and trades back up to that level, it could act as resistance.
  • Prices staying below consequent encouragement or just one tick above it indicate a high probability of resistance.

Framing Market Analysis

The speaker explains how they frame their market analysis. They mention that if prices trade to the high end of the fair value gap and still act as an inversion fair value cycle, it indicates potential for lower prices. They emphasize the importance of understanding their analysis and why they are looking at specific factors.

Framing Market Analysis

  • The speaker frames their market analysis based on price behavior in relation to the fair value gap.
  • If prices trade to the high end of the fair value gap and still act as an inversion fair value cycle, it suggests potential for lower prices.
  • Understanding their analysis and reasoning is crucial for interpreting their perspective.

Learning from Hindsight

The speaker mentions that sometimes they point out things in hindsight throughout the week. They explain that these points were already outlined earlier and serve as learning opportunities. They encourage viewers to observe these scenarios even if they don't work out, as it provides insight into real-time decision-making.

Learning from Hindsight

  • Sometimes, the speaker points out things in hindsight throughout the week.
  • These points were already outlined earlier and serve as learning opportunities.
  • Observing these scenarios, even if they don't work out, provides insight into real-time decision-making.

Trading Complexity on Sundays

The speaker discusses trading complexity on Sundays when markets open up with random price movements. They mention that various global factors can complicate trading decisions during this time. However, they emphasize that opportunities can still be found by applying the same logic and analysis.

Trading Complexity on Sundays

  • Trading on Sundays can be complex due to random price movements and global factors.
  • Despite the complexity, opportunities can still be found by applying the same logic and analysis.

Charter Level Lessons

The speaker mentions that certain lessons are exclusive to charter members who have reached a specific level of mentorship. They clarify that these lessons are not hidden or sold separately but are part of their mentorship program. They highlight the importance of understanding specific concepts at different stages of learning.

Charter Level Lessons

  • Certain lessons are exclusive to charter members who have reached a specific level of mentorship.
  • These lessons are not hidden or sold separately but part of the overall mentorship program.
  • Understanding specific concepts at different stages of learning is crucial for progression.

Inefficiency and Gap Analysis

The speaker discusses inefficiency and gap analysis in trading. They mention a drop-down outside of a gap closure as an example. They explain how inefficiencies can be repriced with market movements, highlighting the importance of analyzing gaps for potential trading setups.

Inefficiency and Gap Analysis

  • Inefficiency and gap analysis play a role in trading decisions.
  • A drop-down outside of a gap closure is mentioned as an example.
  • Repricing inefficiencies with market movements is important for identifying potential trading setups.

Repricing Inefficiencies

The speaker explains how inefficiencies can be repriced based on market movements. They mention extending gaps from one candle's low to another candle's high as a way to identify potential trading opportunities. It is emphasized that although it may seem complex at first, the same logic and patterns repeat over time.

Repricing Inefficiencies

  • Inefficiencies can be repriced based on market movements.
  • Extending gaps from one candle's low to another candle's high helps identify potential trading opportunities.
  • Although it may seem complex initially, the same logic and patterns repeat over time.

Trading Setup in Fair Value Gap

The speaker discusses a potential trading setup in the fair value gap. They mention trading within the fair value gap if prices move lower and come back up without trading into the fair B gap. This setup is considered favorable for trading, and they express their intention to trade it if it presents itself.

Trading Setup in Fair Value Gap

  • A potential trading setup exists within the fair value gap.
  • If prices move lower and come back up without trading into the fair B gap, it is considered a favorable setup.
  • The speaker expresses their intention to trade this setup if it presents itself.

Real-Time Trading Demonstration

The speaker mentions recording themselves doing a live account trade if they are available in front of the charts when an opportunity arises. They emphasize that real stop losses are used during trades and highlight their approach of selecting specific high-probability trades rather than aiming for perfection.

Real-Time Trading Demonstration

  • The speaker mentions recording themselves doing a live account trade if circumstances allow.
  • Real stop losses are used during trades to manage risk.
  • Specific high-probability trades are selected rather than aiming for perfection.

Confidence in Market Analysis

The speaker discusses their confidence level when sharing market analysis on Twitter. They mention that they only point out things they feel have high merit and are confident about. They emphasize that they do not frequently point out things that end up being incorrect.

Confidence in Market Analysis

  • The speaker shares market analysis on Twitter with a high level of confidence.
  • They only point out things they feel have high merit and are likely to be correct.
  • Instances where their analysis is incorrect are rare.

Trading Frequency and Realistic Expectations

The speaker

Understanding Impulsive and Reckless Behavior

In this section, the speaker discusses how feelings of failure can lead to impulsive and reckless behavior in trading.

The Cycle of Punishment

  • Feelings of failure can cause individuals to become impulsive and reckless in their trading decisions.
  • This behavior stems from anger and resentment towards oneself, leading to self-inflicted punishment.
  • Subconsciously, individuals justify this punishment as a way to cope with their anger and resentment.

Gamblers Numbness

  • Similar to gamblers, traders may reach a point called "gamblers numbness" where they want to lose everything because they cannot control themselves.
  • This inability to leave losing trades or stop gambling indicates a lack of discipline.
  • Many traders experience this cycle repeatedly without realizing its impact on their trading performance.

Breaking the Cycle

  • Recognizing the destructive pattern is crucial for breaking the cycle of impulsive behavior.
  • If you find yourself just pushing buttons without any purpose, it's essential to immediately exit the trade and take a break.
  • Grounding yourself by stepping away from trading for a week can help regain control and avoid further losses.

Trading with Discipline and Purpose

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of disciplined trading practices and having a clear purpose in each trade.

Trading Within Your Potential

  • Many traders fail consistently because they attempt trades that are outside their potential or skill set.
  • Overleveraging positions or taking excessive risks without proper risk management is not sustainable in the long run.
  • Successful trading involves picking specific entry points, managing risk effectively, and setting realistic profit objectives.

Logic Behind Trades

  • Trading decisions should be based on logical reasoning rather than random or retail logic.
  • Entry points should be supported by a narrative and understanding of why price should move in a certain direction.
  • Price movements are primarily driven by liquidity needs or rebalancing, not arbitrary factors.

Unpredictable Manual Intervention

  • Manual intervention in the market can cause unexpected and exaggerated price movements.
  • While some interventions can be anticipated around specific calendar events, others may surprise traders.
  • Being on the wrong side of such events can result in unforeseen risks and losses.

Trade Analysis and Market Structure

In this section, the speaker analyzes specific trades and discusses market structure.

Analyzing Trades

  • The speaker reviews a trade where the market structure shifted from bullish to bearish.
  • By identifying key levels and liquidity areas, traders can make informed decisions about entering or exiting trades.

Repricing to Fair Value

  • The market often reprices to fair value based on previous highs and lows.
  • Understanding these repricing levels can help traders anticipate price movements.

Importance of Risk Management

  • Proper risk management is crucial for successful trading.
  • Traders should avoid taking trades that do not meet their risk-reward criteria or have shallow price movements.

These notes provide an overview of the main topics discussed in the transcript. For more detailed information, please refer to the corresponding timestamps provided.

Levels for the Week

The speaker discusses the levels they will be focusing on for the week and their significance.

Key Points:

  • The first objective on the downside is to see a daily close below a specific level.
  • A key level to watch is the midpoint of a consequent encroachment, which is 14,431.75.
  • Another important level is the low of a candle that represents an old fair value gap on the weekly chart.
  • It's essential to have these levels noted as they can act as significant price delivery points for the week.

Premium and Sell Side Levels

The speaker discusses premium and sell side levels and their importance.

Key Points:

  • On the premium side, focus on levels such as 13,356.75 (high of sell-side balance buy-side efficiency) and 15,268.75 (consequent encroachment).
  • On the sell side, pay attention to levels like 15,288.25 (worst-case scenario if closing above it indicates being on the sideline), 14,244.85 (target for profit taking or partial), and relative equal lows at around 86 and 89.

Upper Quadrant of Inefficiency

The speaker discusses potential scenarios if price reaches certain areas.

Key Points:

  • If price stays at the lower portion of an inefficiency area, it would be ideal.
  • However, if price trades up into this week's consequent encouragement (around 15,288.20), it could act as bearish resistance.
  • This upper quadrant of inefficiency should be monitored closely as it may impact future price movement.

Fair Value Gap and Resistance

The speaker discusses fair value gaps and potential resistance levels.

Key Points:

  • Price previously worked up into a fair value gap but cleared the buy side.
  • If price gaps lower and trades back up to that area, it would be interesting to see if it offers resistance.
  • The high of the fair value gap (around 15,288.20) is a crucial level to watch for potential resistance.

Bearish Scenarios

The speaker discusses bearish scenarios and possible targets.

Key Points:

  • If price goes through all the price action in a certain area, it could reach down into another area.
  • A target for profit taking or partial could be the low of a candle (around 14,244.85).
  • There are also relative equal lows at around 86 and 89 that should be considered as potential targets.
  • If price reaches below these levels, it may continue downwards towards consequent encouragement at 14,244.85.

Timestamps are approximate and may not match exactly with the provided transcript.

Factors to Consider in Trading Partials

The speaker discusses the importance of knowing where to take partial profits in trading and differentiates between high resistance liquidity runs and low resistance liquidity runs.

Trading with High Resistance Liquidity Runs

  • When trading inside a high resistance liquidity run, it is important to identify reasonable areas to take partial profits.
  • Partial profits can be taken at the midpoint of the Wick or at the low of a bearish candle.
  • The market may attempt a fake move before continuing in the desired direction.

Trading with Low Resistance Liquidity Runs

  • In low resistance liquidity runs, no partial profits are taken. The entire trade is staked on the initial entry and managed until the risk is removed.
  • Conviction behind analysis and trade plays a significant role in not scaling off positions.

Understanding Fair Value Gaps

The speaker explains how fair value gaps work and provides insights into their trading strategies.

Inversion Fair Value Gaps

  • A critical rule-based idea for trading inversion fair value gaps is understanding when they stay open or get filled.
  • Knowing when to anticipate certain gaps staying open or being completely filled helps in making informed trading decisions.

Sell Side Imbalance Analysis

  • By analyzing sell side imbalances, one can identify remaining inefficiencies for sell side movement.
  • Price delivery down indicates an imbalance that lacks sell side movement, presenting an opportunity for selling below certain levels.

Planning Trade Entries Based on Market Openings

The speaker discusses potential trade entries based on market openings and outlines specific scenarios for taking action.

Potential Scenarios for Trade Entries

  • If there is a gap lower opening at Sunday's market opening, the market could trade back up to fill the fair value gap.
  • The speaker suggests waiting for specific price movements and creating a framework before taking action.

Plan B for Trade Entries

  • The speaker provides alternative scenarios and specific actions based on different market conditions.
  • The focus is on observing how the market opens and moves before making trading decisions.

The transcript provided does not mention anything about going long.

Understanding the Trade Framework

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that their trade framework is not a trade signal or an invitation for others to follow. It is meant for informational purposes only.

Trade Framework Usage

  • The speaker states that they are willing to use their trade framework if they see favorable conditions in front of them on the charts.
  • However, they clarify that this does not mean others should take the same trades or try to replicate their actions.
  • The trade framework should be used as a tool to understand the speaker's thought process and how they utilize market structure.

Personal Responsibility

  • The speaker emphasizes that individuals should be 100% responsible for their own trading decisions.
  • They caution against twisting or contorting the information shared and taking actions that may result in harm.
  • The purpose of sharing their perspective is to provide insights into current market conditions, not to encourage others to blindly follow.

Conclusion and Appreciation

In this final section, the speaker concludes by expressing gratitude for any value provided and encourages viewers to show appreciation through likes and thumbs up.

Recap and Helpfulness

  • The speaker mentions covering gold after discussing NASDAQ and Dollar Index.
  • They ask viewers if they found the video helpful in gaining insight into fair value app inversion, measuring expectations as a developing trader, or managing pitfalls as a profitable trader.
  • If viewers found value in the video, the speaker requests them to give it a thumbs up as a reflection of appreciation.

Motivation and Encouragement

  • The speaker clarifies that receiving more likes or thumbs up does not directly impact their earnings from ad revenue.
  • However, positive feedback motivates them to create more content and shows that viewers appreciate their time and effort.
  • Giving a thumbs up is a simple and free way for viewers to encourage the speaker to continue sharing valuable information.

Final Remarks

  • The speaker wishes everyone a pleasant remainder of Sunday.
  • They mention the possibility of connecting with viewers on Twitter the following day.
  • They sign off by expressing their intention to talk again in the future.

The transcript provided was already in English, so no language conversion was necessary.

Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.