Bitcoin Bulls Should Pray For This Today [price statistics]

Short-term Time Frame Move to the Downside

In this section, Eric Crown discusses the short-term time frame move to the downside based on the jewel light setup on the four-hour timeframe on CME that hit Bitcoin down to about 29,000 bucks. He also talks about what sort of setups are staring us in the face for today.

New Setup

• There is a setup on the hpdr indicator that is starting to rear its lovely head.

• The closure outside the blue range lows initiates a secondary condition where we look for a decrease in volatility moving average represented by bbwp indicator.

• Out of 315 tested iterations, there was an almost 74 strike rate of a nice short-term upside move over the course of the next 18 bars on average.

• On top end, we could see a bounce as much as four percent and on lower end about two and a half to three percent.

Reminder About Statistics

In this section, Eric Crown reminds viewers that whenever he goes over these setups that he posts here on YouTube or Twitter or whatever, he's talking about statistics.

Casual Reminder

• Just because there is a 74 strike rate doesn't mean it's always going to be like that.

• A casual reminder that truth is not always going to be like that.

Key Levels to Watch

In this section, the speaker discusses key levels to watch for Bitcoin's price movement.

Support and Resistance Levels

• Bitcoin needs to stay above 29,000 on a closing basis for upside potential.

• A two-hour closure below 29,200 could lead to a big area of support.

• Short-term upside potential is likely up to 30,500 in the next day and a half.

Stochastic Momentum Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes stochastic momentum on lower time frames.

Hourly Time Frame

• Severe upside potential as long as Bitcoin remains above 29,250.

• Fresh cross to the upside from extreme lows.

Full Hour Time Frame

• Potential hidden bullish divergence between April 10th low and current low.

• Natural short-term targets back up towards 30,600 - 30,700 if confirmed by coming back above at least $30k.

Six Hour Time Frame

• Chance to pop back up from extreme lows with close above 29,850.

Higher Term Time Frames

• Heavy down on daily time frame below 30,750.

• Heavy down as long as Bitcoin is below $30.8k on CME.

Continuation to New Highs

In this section, the speaker discusses what it would take for Bitcoin's price rally to continue.

Daily Time Frame

• Daily stochastic needs to start closing above $30.5k for continuation of rally.

• If Bitcoin pops back up into mid-$30k range before closure or tomorrow that's when we're probably going to be looking for continuation of rally.

Downside Potential

In this section, the speaker discusses potential downside for Bitcoin's price movement.

Four Hour Time Frame

• If Bitcoin closes below $29,150 on a closing basis, it could come all the way down to low $28k.

• Gap fill coming in from April 7th closure.

Higher Term Time Frames

• Heavy down on daily time frame below 30,750.

• Heavy down as long as Bitcoin is below $30.8k on CME.

Bitcoin Rally Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the current state of the Bitcoin rally and provides insights into its potential future movements.

Bitcoin Rally Expectations

• The rally is expected to continue, but a low may be put in soon.

• Breaking below 29,000 bucks would call into question the rally's continuation.

• The upside move has already played out, and another push may take it to around 32-33 or even low 40,000 bucks.

• The rally's power is waning, and a general market pullback may occur in late May.

Weekly Jewel and Higher Time Frames

• The weekly jewel is still showing its upside curvature supported by DMI.

• If there is one more push, mid-30s are expected.

• A closing basis below the current low could indicate a major trap on higher time frames.

Short-Term Bounce and Reclaimed Levels

• Short-term bouncy bounce is expected before determining if Bitcoin can reclaim 30,500 or not.

• Reclaiming 30,500 could extend the bounce to probably a new high at around 31,700.

• On a closing basis below 29,100 bucks, Bitcoin could go for the lower gap fill somewhere at the low 28,000 territory.

Conclusion

The next couple of weeks are crucial for Bitcoin's continuation. If it continues from here and reclaims certain levels or breaks below specific levels on a closing basis will determine its future movements.