BITCOIN CRASHING - HERE IS WHY

The Impact of Upcoming Events on Bitcoin and Crypto Prices

Government Shutdown and Its Implications

• A significant week for Bitcoin and crypto is anticipated, with five major events likely to influence prices negatively.

• The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown starting Friday, with a 75% chance of occurrence due to unresolved funding issues.

• Lawmakers have reached partial agreements on funding but are still negotiating key areas, particularly concerning ICE funding reforms.

• Previous government shutdowns have led to liquidity issues in the market, significantly impacting Bitcoin prices due to its sensitivity to global liquidity.

• Despite potential negative impacts from the shutdown, there is hope that the Clarity Act could pass before it occurs, which would provide regulatory clarity.

The Clarity Act's Role in Crypto Regulation

• The Clarity Act is seen as a crucial catalyst for the crypto industry; however, its passage may be jeopardized by the looming government shutdown.

• Regulatory clarity is viewed as more beneficial for Wall Street than for emerging crypto companies, which have thrived without it thus far.

• There’s an expectation that both traditional finance and crypto will eventually converge into a unified financial system over time.

• Short-term challenges exist for crypto markets; however, support levels around $73-$74K may hold during this period of uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes of the Government Shutdown

• Speculation exists that the government shutdown might last only three days instead of longer durations experienced previously.

• Some believe alternative liquidity sources could mitigate impacts even if a shutdown occurs; others argue that crypto will continue to rise regardless of regulatory developments.

Federal Reserve Actions and Global Currency Dynamics

• Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve may intervene in yen markets soon; such actions can affect dollar supply and overall market liquidity.

• A strengthening yen could lead to volatility similar to past interventions where Bitcoin experienced significant price fluctuations following currency adjustments.

• Recent news suggests Japan has intervened in currency markets, leading to immediate effects on both yen value against USD and broader market dynamics.

Digital Asset Treasuries: A Shift in Strategy

Overview of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

• Digital asset treasuries, once seen as bullish indicators, are now selling off. Ethzilla, an Ethereum treasury firm, has sold at least $114 million worth of ETH to fund the purchase of two jets and jet engines for $12.2 million.

Ethzilla's New Ventures

• Ethzilla is not exiting the crypto space entirely; they are partnering with regulated broker dealer liquidity.io to tokenize real-world assets like aircraft engines and loans. The first tokenized offering is expected in Q1 2026.

Market Sentiment and Behavior

• Despite some firms like Tomley's Bitine and Michael Saylor continuing to buy, many DATs that previously marked market tops are now engaging in significant sell-offs. This behavior often indicates a potential local bottom in the market.

Understanding Bitcoin's Market Cycle

Bitcoin's Historical Cycles

• The speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin operates on a 46-month cycle rather than a traditional four-year cycle. According to this perspective, the crypto bubble has already burst, indicating we are currently in a bear market.

Insights from Investors

• Notable investor Michael Turpin suggests that since October, we have been experiencing a bear market which typically lasts between 8 to 12 months. This implies there may be around six more months left in this downturn.

Long-term Perspectives on Market Trends

• The speaker argues against viewing current trends as mere blips within a five-year cycle. They reiterate that historical data supports the notion of an extended bear market following the recent bubble burst observed in 2025.