Private Update 236

Overview of the Market

Overview: This video covers the current state of the market, including the banking sector, the dollar, and the stock market. The speaker discusses the implications of the bailout and the potential for a fat pivot.

Banking Sector:

• The speaker believes that there is still room for the Dow Jones to go down.

• The speaker suggests that the bailout signals the end of phase two on the fat pivot, which means that phase three is likely beginning.

• The speaker predicts that the Fed will pause at their next meeting, meaning that rates will stay at zero.

Dollar:

• The speaker was expecting a strong lower high before the dollar went down, but this has not happened yet.

• The speaker suggests that the way they have been reading the markets may have changed.

• The speaker predicts that the dollar will not go up after the fat pivot, but will instead go down.

Stock Market:

• The speaker believes that the Federal Reserve knew something would break when they raised rates and changed money policies for banks.

• The speaker suggests that the bailout itself is part of the fat pivot.

• The speaker predicts that the stock market will collapse and the dollar will go down big time.

Analyzing the US Dollar and Gold

Overview: This section covers an analysis of the US dollar and gold, including a discussion of macro blue flags, the long-term perspective of the US dollar, and the potential for gold to outperform the dollar.

US Dollar Analysis

• The US dollar appears to be leading to a bullish continuation, but is not.

• A macro blue flag is likely.

• The US dollar is expected to be worth 7-1 against the local currency by January 2025.

Gold Analysis

• Gold is likely to stay in its current range before breaking out.

• Investing in gold is not recommended due to the high risk/reward ratio.

• XRP is expected to outperform gold.

• Songbird and XRP should make up 93% and 7% of investments respectively.

Songbird and Chain Analysis

Overview: This section provides an analysis of the potential rewards and risks associated with investing in Songbird and Chain.

Risk Management

• Let's say Songbird and Chain ends up with a bad move up, but it's likely to be above 21.

• Draw a Fibonacci from the top previous top and assume Songbird ends up with a bearish behavior.

• If there is a rejection from both levels, Songbird has a bearish future.

• If Songbird goes to 40, the reward is a minimum of 7 to 1.

• The risk is 1 to 7, which equals 7% on total capital.

Poker Strategy

• Developed a new method to play hands with a minimum of 20 chances to win (5 to 1).

• Spent $7,500 and made $15,500 so far, ahead by $8,000 in profits.

• Played against AI and won 1999 out of 2000 hands.

Deadline Analysis

• Expecting 20-25, but may start in November 2024.

• Deflation will happen in the US due to high debt.

• Trap Biden will leave or quit this year or beginning of next year.

• Republicans will not raise the debt ceiling, leaving the bomb in Democrats' hands.

• Trump will arrive at a desolated scenario and the gold standard will come back.

BRICS Nations and Global Liquidity

Overview: This section discusses the BRICS nations and their inability to provide global liquidity. It also touches on the potential for dictators in these nations to be replaced, and how the US, UK, and Europe will be the ones providing liquidity in the New World Order.

Dictators and Socialism

• The Economist cover is highlighting that the dictators' time is about to be over.

• The BRICS nations are full of dictators and socialists trying to achieve communism.

• Trump will bring a solution that they will have to accept, as they are not the ones providing liquidity.

Riddler's Marvin Gaye XRP Moving Gold

• This conversation triggered some bells about the Riddler's Marvin Gaye XRP moving gold.

• Xlm is looking very good so far, with a descending triangle that is dangerous but can be bullish when developed in a bottom.

• Xrp is trading inside both key levels 13 and 8 cents, and there is a lot of value inside this range.

FED Pivot

• After the recent developments, we are getting very close to the FED pivot.

• Ellie shared a chart with the same behavior, which ended up going straight up without a downside move.

• There is no more room for downside and activating the pivot on the FED pivot itself.

• I strongly believe that it is going from here.

Lessons Learned

• I made the biggest mistake of my life while trading or investing, expecting one more downside move.

• I learned my lesson and now I am feeling like it is the same moment as back in the day.

• I had three shards and used a tight stop, but still ended up losing money.

• Trading teaches you lessons and helps you remember what you did.

Bitcoin vs Dow Jones

Overview: This section of the transcript discusses the comparison between Bitcoin and Dow Jones, and the potential for a bearish structure in the near future.

Technical Fundamentals

• The speaker takes a look at Dow Jones and notes that it is looking better than Bitcoin.

• The speaker suggests that the bearish structure seen in the past could be invalidated by external fundamentals.

• The speaker believes that Bitcoin is likely to stay in the same place until the fat pivot, which could be in May or June.

• The speaker then moves back to discussing Bitcoin.

• The speaker suggests that the move could be a bear trap for those with a bearish bias.

• The speaker believes that the fat pivot will be the key factor in determining the direction of Bitcoin.

External Fundamentals

• The speaker looks at the schedule and notes that the next meeting is in July.

• The speaker believes that rates will not be raised until July.

• The speaker suggests that there is enough time for Bitcoin to make a move before then.

• The speaker believes that Bitcoin could go up or down, but that volatility will decrease.

• The speaker suggests that Bitcoin could make a bullish or bearish move.

• The speaker believes that the tether printer could go crazy again.

Conclusion

• The speaker concludes that they have made the right decision to stop trading and focus on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

• The speaker suggests that the craziness they are seeking could happen in the next four or five days.

• The speaker believes that Bitcoin could make a big move in either direction.

• The speaker suggests that the move could be something like this.

• The speaker concludes that there is no way to know what will happen, but that it will be a great day when it does.