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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 06 - High Probability Swing Trade Setups In Bear Markets
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 06 - High Probability Swing Trade Setups In Bear Markets

High Probability Swing Trade Setups in Bear Markets

In this lesson, the focus is on high probability swing trade setups in bear markets. The PD array matrix is used as a reference point for identifying bearish monthly, weekly and daily premium arrays that induce selling.

Selling Daily Bearish Premium Arrays When All Three Time Frames Are Bearish

  • Sell all daily bearish premium arrays when all three time frames (monthly, weekly and daily) are bearish.
  • Look for old highs or lows, rejection blocks above candle bodies, bearish order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity voids, bearish breakers and any bearish mitigation block to sell.
  • Sell every four-hour bearish premium array.

Selling Daily Bearish Premium Arrays When Monthly Is Bearish and Weekly Is Bullish

  • When the monthly is bearish and the weekly is bullish while the daily is bullish indicating a correction underway on the daily chart:
  • Sell daily bearish premium arrays at or nested in weekly premium arrays.
  • Sell four-hour bearish premium arrays at daily and/or nested in weekly bearish premium arrays.
  • Avoid selling weekly premium arrays if it has just posted a lower low and rejected as this will be seen as a bullish breaker.

Example of High Probability Sales Sentence with Euro Dollar

  • Use euro dollar on monthly chart with 18 months worth of data highlighted to identify all PD arrays.
  • Draw out up candles with lows noted along with opens on up candles.
  • Refine to show weekly levels delineating a bearish order block using red trend lines.
  • Delineate mean thresholds of all bullish candles prior to down move which is a bearish order block.
  • Take R levels down into a daily timeframe indicating monthly and weekly PD arrays in form of bearish order blocks and openings of bullish candles.

Trading Analysis

The speaker analyzes the price movements of the Euro Dollar in different time frames and identifies key levels for trading.

Key Levels Identified

  • Price trades up close to a gap, giving a deep retracement. The high is in the premium range.
  • Weekly order block is bearish, price hits it perfectly and trades lower.
  • Price trades deeper into a monthly bullish candle which is a bearish order block. It's also overlapping with the opening on a weekly bearish order block.
  • Price hits an old low and traces it to a daily bearish order block which is the last up candle right before the down move.
  • All levels from monthly, weekly, and daily are transposed to the four-hour chart.

Premium Area Selling Side

  • Euro Dollar is in a premium area above equilibrium so it's in a selling side of the marketplace.
  • A mitigation block occurs where they try to get some of the long positions off that would be underwater before it took off and went lower.

Potential Bearish Order Block

  • Last two up candles could be potential bearish order blocks.

Identifying Bearish Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker discusses potential bearish order blocks and how to identify them.

Potential Bearish Order Block

  • A group of candles that show up moves going into a decline is a potential bearish order block.
  • Three consecutive candles trading up for the down move is another example of a potential bearish order block.
  • When price trades away from an overlap, it could have been traded as a bearish order block.

Bearish Order Block

  • A bearish order block occurs when price trades all the way back up into an area where it becomes a bare shorter block.
  • A candle right before the down move is also considered a potential bearish order block.
  • The last two candles before the down move can be used as a bear shorter block.

Trading Outside of Range Bound Consolidation

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade outside of range-bound consolidation.

Old High

  • When price trades above an old high, it's considered a premium PD array and an old high false break above it sell-off.
  • A potential selling opportunity arises when there's a fair value gap between two areas.

Breaker

  • Two down candles right before taking out old highs indicate that we have a breaker.
  • Price trades back up into the breaker before expanding and going lower.

Trading Monthly and Weekly PD Arrays

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade monthly and weekly PD arrays.

Bearish Order Block

  • A bearish order block occurs when price trades up into it.
  • Consolidation around a monthly level indicates a potential selling opportunity.

Introduction

The speaker talks about bearish order blocks and reference points.

Bearish Order Blocks

  • The speaker mentions a bearish order block.
  • He suggests using the last big candle before the up move starts to come down as a reference point.

Reference Points

The speaker discusses reference points and shorting from a level.

Shorting from a Level

  • The speaker suggests shorting Tesla from a certain level.
  • He explains that it would take 245 pips to get below the lows over there.
  • He mentions that all green candles are basically resistance levels, even if they end up getting broken at a later time.
  • He provides an example of two candles that provided resistance and resulted in a significant trade.

Trading Levels

The speaker talks about trading levels on different time frames.

Daily Time Frame

  • The speaker shows black lines representing levels on the daily time frame.
  • Price trades away from the last up candle for them move, then trades back up into it as a bearish order block before trading lower.

Four Hour Time Frame

  • Price seeks to move below this low here to get the discount PD array.
  • Up candle right for a down move should act as resistance, which it does in here.

Institutional Sponsorship

The speaker discusses institutional sponsorship and potential setups.

Potential Setups

  • All up candles provide resistance, which is what we're looking for in terms of institutional sponsorship.
  • A potential equal high price trades back up into could be looked at as a sell-off.
  • There were many potential setups in the range from these price points.

Trading Setups Based on Timeframes

In this section, the speaker discusses how to use different timeframes to identify trading setups.

Identifying Opportunities on Different Timeframes

  • Short selling opportunities can be found at logical levels.
  • Focus primarily on monthly and weekly levels as they are the biggest catalysts for big moves.
  • Dropping down to a four-hour timeframe gives a more refined entry point with less risk and closer to profitability.
  • Look for monthly, weekly, daily, and four-hour levels that go in concert with one another to overlap and converge.

Sensitivity of Levels

  • Monthly and weekly levels have significant price swings and bear shoulder blocks.
  • Larger orders and positions are built on monthly/weekly levels which is why they can be traded multiple times.
  • Expect potential for getting stopped out when trading into layered areas of levels but don't forget the whole idea of the trade or what frames the idea that this market should go lower.

Million Dollar Swing Trading Model

  • This model will be built upon in lessons six through eight.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 06
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in February 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.