Thursday June 15, 2023 \ ICT Price Action Workshop

Introduction

The speaker apologizes for being late and experiencing technical difficulties. He introduces the workshop and promises to cover a lot of topics related to trading, including fair value gaps, price delivery, time of day bias, daily bias, session bias, stops, and backtesting.

Workshop Overview

• The speaker promises to cover a lot of topics related to trading.

• The workshop will be recorded for those who cannot stay for the entire duration.

• Topics covered include Forex and index futures.

• The speaker's teaching approach involves telling students what will happen before it happens.

Where to Begin

• For new traders or those unfamiliar with the speaker's content, he recommends watching a specific video that he will refer to in his upcoming book.

Introduction

In this section, the speaker introduces the topics that will be covered in the video and emphasizes the importance of taking time to observe and practice before trading with real money.

Topics Covered

• The speaker will discuss various topics related to trading, including silver bullets and setups.

• It is important to slow down impulsiveness when it comes to making money.

• The speaker has both successful and failed students, and progress depends on effort and time put into studying.

• The goal of this meeting is to help viewers determine where they should focus their study efforts.

Finding Your Path

This section focuses on how viewers can determine their path through all the content available on ICT's YouTube channel.

Determining Your Path

• The speaker teaches many ways to trade, including different time frames, setups, entry mechanisms, take profit strategies, etc.

• Viewers can use today's presentation as a guide for determining where their area of study would be best served or where they are lacking in personal study.

• If you are hit-and-miss with profits in your demo account but not blowing out your account, you are in a good position.

• Observing repeating phenomena at specific times of day with repeating characteristics is key to finding success.

Work Ethic

This section emphasizes the importance of having a strong work ethic when it comes to learning how to trade successfully.

Having a Strong Work Ethic

• Laziness will lead to failure when it comes to trading.

• An entitlement mindset will also hinder progress; viewers must take responsibility for their own learning.

• Watching live streams can be helpful for observing moves and behaviors in real-time.

• There is no need for live trades or statements if viewers are already watching the live streams and observing price action.

Introduction

The speaker discusses the importance of handling oneself and one's perception when trading. He emphasizes that a high success rate is not necessary for profitability.

• Success rate in terms of trades does not need to be high for profitability.

• Trading can be scalable and can lead to secondary income or even quitting one's job.

• Impulsive behavior should be avoided, and the focus should be on learning how to consistently profit.

• Day trading every day is not recommended, as it can lead to unnecessary losses.

Learning from Experience

The speaker shares his experience with losing money and accounts due to his own actions. He stresses the importance of being responsible for one's own actions when trading.

• The speaker lost lots of money and accounts due to his own actions.

• Trying to trade with live funds before being ready will make it harder to succeed.

• The speaker provides 30 years of experience in teaching about price anticipation and precision in trading.

• It is important to learn when not to try to trade, which may seem boring but is crucial in avoiding drawdown periods.

Following Rules and Giving Time

The speaker emphasizes the importance of following rules and giving oneself time to grow into trading. He also mentions a previous livestream where he discussed what he thought would happen in the market that week.

• Rules must be followed, and time must be given for growth into trading.

• A previous livestream covered what the speaker thought would happen in the market that week.

• The speaker will take breaks every hour during the presentation and leave the recording going for those who need to tend to something else.

• Students are encouraged to help create a timeline of topics and markets covered by sending minute markers on Twitter.

Conclusion

The speaker provides insights into trading, emphasizing the importance of handling oneself, learning from experience, following rules, and giving oneself time to grow. He also mentions a previous livestream and encourages students to help create a timeline of topics covered.

Understanding Price Delivery Continuum

In this section, the speaker discusses how he teaches his students to understand price delivery continuum and how it is important to focus on the right time frame.

Importance of Time Frame

• The speaker explains that he walked his audience through CPI real-time and a 15-second Candlestick chart during a live stream.

• He emphasizes that everything he teaches is fractal because price is price, no matter what time frame you are looking at.

• The speaker mentions that people often ask him why he picks certain time frames for trading. He will answer this question in this section.

Teaching Price Delivery Continuum

• The speaker talks about teaching his students to look for the price delivery continuum and how to go about doing it.

• He acknowledges that some of the lessons may not be impactful for beginners but encourages them to stick with it and promises they will see progress in three months' time.

• The speaker shares an example of how he would teach his private mentorship students by showing them bonds and S&P charts every week.

Trading Strategies for FOMC, CPI, and Non-Farm Payroll Friday

In this section, the speaker discusses specific trading strategies for FOMC, CPI, and Non-Farm Payroll Friday.

Trading Ahead of Economic Events

• The speaker explains that he teaches his students to avoid trying to trade ahead of economic events like CPI or FOMC.

• He shares examples of himself trading post-CPI, post-FOMC, and post-Non-Farm Payroll.

• The speaker emphasizes that he is not trying to prevent people from making money on those days but rather trying to protect beginners from themselves.

Trading Strategies

• The speaker promises to teach his audience how to trade CPI, FOMC, and Non-Farm Payroll Friday.

• He encourages his audience to take good notes and focus on developing their skills over time.

Note-Taking Tips

In this section, the speaker provides tips on how to take effective notes while watching the video.

Marker on Playback and Hovering Over Timestamps

• Use the marker on playback to hover over timestamps at the bottom of the video to see where you are in the video.

• This makes it easier to go back and review specific parts of the video for better note-taking.

Dollar Index Weekly Chart Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes a weekly chart of the dollar index and explains fair value gaps.

Fair Value Gap Definition

• A fair value gap is defined as a buy-side imbalance or sell-side inefficiency.

• The shaded area between two reference points represents a fair value gap.

• The candle's high or closing point represents the low of fair value, while its low represents its high.

Paint Roller Analogy

• Think about price delivery like painting a wall with a roller.

• If you keep applying paint from bottom to top, there will be pockets where paint did not reach.

• Similarly, there are small inefficiencies in price delivery within a fair value gap.

Imbalanced Market Delivery

• An imbalanced market delivery means that there is an imbalance between buy-side and sell-side deliveries.

• For example, if there is no sell-side delivery within a buy-side imbalance, then it becomes inefficient.

Repricing Fair Value Gaps

• To reprice fair value gaps, there must be sell-side deliveries within that range.

• A candle must trade down between two reference points to balance out an imbalanced market delivery.

Delivery Continuum and Fair Value Gap

The speaker introduces the concept of delivery continuum and fair value gap, explaining how they are used to determine market tendencies.

How to Determine Fair Value Gap

• Use delivery continuum to see from one time frame down to the smaller time frame.

• Look for inefficiencies in the market that indicate a tendency for it to re-price into certain areas.

• Watch the video multiple times to retain information.

Dollar Index Price Action Lecture

The speaker provides an overview of his lecture on dollar index price action, highlighting key points for those who want to skip ahead.

Key Points from June 13th Video

• Watch entire video for more information.

• For dollar index, go to minute marker four minutes.

• Look for price level of 102.705.

Weekly Chart Analysis

The speaker explains how he analyzes weekly charts and why he spends most of his time on them.

Analyzing Weekly Charts

• Spend most time analyzing weekly charts because they provide a higher timeframe perspective.

• Analyze monthly, three-month, and yearly charts as well.

• Look for inefficiencies or liquidity in the market when predicting future prices.

Daily Chart Analysis

The speaker discusses how he uses daily charts in conjunction with weekly charts when analyzing markets.

Using Daily Charts with Weekly Charts

• Keep higher timeframe perspective in mind when looking at daily charts.

• Use daily chart analysis in conjunction with weekly chart analysis.

Market Analysis Techniques

The speaker shares his techniques for analyzing markets during non-trading hours.

Market Analysis Techniques

• Analyze markets during non-trading hours to predict and anticipate future prices.

• Look for inefficiencies or liquidity in the market when predicting future prices.

• Use monthly, three-month, and yearly charts to analyze markets.

Predicting Future Prices

The speaker explains how he predicts future prices based on his analysis of weekly charts.

Predicting Future Prices

• Look for inefficiencies or liquidity in the market when predicting future prices.

• Expect price to draw down into areas with inefficiencies.

• If there are no inefficiencies, look for areas with liquidity.

Moving Slow to Make Money and Fast to Preserve It

In this section, the speaker shares a lesson he learned from Larry Williams about moving slow when trying to make money and fast when trying to preserve it. He emphasizes the importance of not rushing into trades after a successful one and instead taking time to reflect on what worked.

Lesson Learned from Larry Williams

• Move slow when trying to make money and fast when trying to preserve it.

• Don't rush into trades after a successful one; take time to reflect on what worked.

• Meditate on successful trades and record how they felt for future reference.

• Journal both positive and negative experiences, but avoid using language that is condemning or harsh.

• Record negative experiences in a way that highlights areas for improvement rather than self-criticism.

Understanding Price Delivery Continuum

In this section, the speaker discusses the two reasons why price goes up - either to take out buy stops or trade into some kind of inefficiency like fair value. He emphasizes the importance of studying volume along with price movement.

Reasons Why Price Goes Up

• Price goes up for one of two reasons - either to take out buy stops or trade into some kind of inefficiency like fair value.

• Buying pressure is not the reason why price goes up; study volume along with price movement for better understanding.

Importance of Volume and Inefficiencies in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of volume and inefficiencies in trading. He explains that too much emphasis is placed on volume as a reason why price goes up or down, when in reality, price goes up to seek liquidity. The speaker also discusses how he looks for inefficiencies and stops above old highs as buy side liquidity and below old lows as sell side liquidity.

Understanding Inefficiencies

• The speaker defines an inefficiency as a gap between two candles where there is no fair value formation.

• The speaker explains that he looks for inefficiencies first because it's what the algorithm reaches for first.

• If there are no inefficiencies and we're likely to go lower, then the algorithm will look for sell-side liquidity. Conversely, if we're in a range and we're in a discount with no inefficiency above price but there's a short-term high, it will run for the buy side.

Analyzing Price Delivery

• The speaker emphasizes that he spends most of his time analyzing weekly charts to see how price was delivered during a period of time.

• He uses an example of a pink shaded area to show how prices move efficiently within defined ranges.

• He shows how prices react within this range by looking at how they deliver up and down between the Range High of one week and the close of another candle.

Identifying Liquidity

• The speaker identifies two things he looks for after his eye goes through the chart: inefficiencies and stops above old highs as buy side liquidity and below old lows as sell-side liquidity.

• He uses an example of a pink shaded area to show how prices move efficiently within defined ranges.

Applying Trading Concepts

In this section, the speaker applies the trading concepts discussed in the previous section to real-life examples.

Analyzing Price Delivery

• The speaker applies the concept of analyzing price delivery to a specific example on a chart.

• He shows how prices react within this range by looking at how they deliver up and down between the Range High of one week and the close of another candle.

Identifying Liquidity

• The speaker identifies two things he looks for after his eye goes through the chart: inefficiencies and stops above old highs as buy side liquidity and below old lows as sell-side liquidity.

• He shows how prices react within this range by looking at how they deliver up and down between the Range High of one week and the close of another candle.

Short Trend Line

In this section, the speaker talks about using a short trend line to identify inefficiencies in the market.

Identifying Inefficiencies

• The speaker highlights a rectangle on the chart and explains that there is an inefficiency when the market leaves this range.

• The speaker suggests using a trend line to identify these inefficiencies.

• The speaker explains how to use different indicators such as Wick midpoint and gaps to anticipate where price may move next.

Applying Information for Forex Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how traders can apply the information from previous sections to their Forex trading strategies.

Backtesting Long Positions

• The speaker suggests backtesting long positions during specific time zones such as London open between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM New York local time.

• Traders should also look for optimal trade entries and silver bullets which form in kill zones between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM New York local time.

Market Analysis

• The speaker emphasizes that his analysis is done on weekly charts during weekends when markets are not trading.

• By analyzing weekly candlestick charts, traders can determine whether prices are likely to expand higher or lower.

Key Levels

• Every high and low of a weekly candlestick chart is important and should be used in analysis.

• The highest high and lowest low within a 60-day range provide the highest form of accuracy for key levels.

Seeing the Market Clearly

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of seeing the market clearly and not relying on indicators.

Balanced Price Range

• The speaker explains that a balanced price range is when the market has moved up and down within a range before leaving it.

• By identifying these ranges, traders can determine where prices are likely to expand higher or lower.

Algorithmic Trading

• The speaker argues that there is an algorithm that controls price and determines daily highs and lows.

• Traders should focus on identifying inefficiencies in the market rather than relying on indicators.

Key Levels Revisited

• The speaker emphasizes that key levels do not expire and should be used repeatedly for analysis.

• Traders should look for inefficiencies, gaps, and fair value gaps to identify potential trade setups.

Understanding Fair Value Gap and Price Delivery Continuum

In this section, the speaker explains the fair value gap and price delivery continuum. He also talks about how to use lower time frame charts to define risk.

Fair Value Gap

• The inversion fair value gap is an old gap that does not look like a gap on the daily chart.

• It is a sell-side imbalance buy-side inefficiency (SIBI), offering buy-side delivery.

• Inefficiencies can be used as real dynamic support and resistance because that's how algorithms refer back to them.

• Higher time frame inefficiencies have an impact on lower time frames.

Price Delivery Continuum

• The price delivery continuum refers to higher time frame inefficiencies regardless of whatever time frame it is.

• Lower time frames can be used for precision like refining risk and making it much smaller so larger positions can be assumed.

• Using lower time frame charts helps you define that risk rather small.

Using Lower Time Frame Charts

• When trading index futures, you're seeing the same price everybody sees; everybody's high is the same, everybody's low is the same.

• Forex brokers many times trade inside their specific pool of liquidity and they have the benefit of being able to open the spread on you when you're trading Forex.

• You cannot consistently use ultra less than two pip stop losses in Forex.

Understanding the Algorithm

In this section, the speaker discusses how to annotate charts with inefficiencies and gaps from higher time frames. He also talks about specific levels to trade on and how the algorithm works.

Annotating Charts

• Inefficiencies and gaps from higher time frames should be annotated on your chart.

• Analysis is mostly done on the higher time frame weekly chart.

• The speaker refers to a shaded area as an inversion fair value gap for the downside that acts as resistance.

Specific Levels to Trade On

• The speaker notes three specific levels in the shaded area: highest point, midpoint, and low.

• The speaker uses very specific levels rather than supply and demand trading.

• It's important to determine where you're going to trade at a specific level.

How the Algorithm Works

• The algorithm operates on time delivery, meaning every price run is scheduled.

• Price is completely manipulated and controlled by the algorithm all of the time.

• Once you understand how it operates, you can exploit it for your advantage.

Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker explains what order blocks are and how they differ from supply and demand logic.

What Are Order Blocks?

• A down closed candle is a bullish order block that represents a change in state of delivery.

• Not every down closed or up-close candle represents an order block like those seen in supply and demand trading logic.

Conclusion

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding how the algorithm works and using specific levels to trade on. He also explains what order blocks are and how they differ from supply and demand logic.

Understanding Weekly Imbalances

In this section, the speaker explains how to efficiently trade back and forth up and down by looking at weekly imbalances.

Efficient Trading on Weekly Chart

• The market can be efficiently traded back and forth up and down.

• Look for pockets of inefficiency in price movements.

• Start analysis on the weekly chart as it is predicated by what we anticipate on that weekly candlestick.

Determining Market Direction

In this section, the speaker explains how to determine market direction based on whether it will go higher or lower.

Two Possible Directions

• Determine if the market will go up for buy stops above an old high or reach for some inefficiency which is a fair value gap above market price.

• If it's going to go lower, it's reaching for some inefficiency which is a fair value gap below price.

Analyzing Hourly Chart

In this section, the speaker analyzes an hourly chart to see if there are any signatures that can be looked at in a lower time frame.

Analyzing Hourly Chart

• Look for true or false signals in the shaded area.

• Anticipate where price will move before reacting to it.

• Use New York local time as a reference point when trading Forex markets.

Using Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker explains how order blocks can be used to predict future price movements.

Predicting Future Price Movements with Order Blocks

• Anticipate future price movements using order blocks.

• Use London session between 2 am and 5 am New York local time to determine the high or low of a market in Forex.

• Having a weekly bias is a huge advantage when trading.

Understanding Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker explains what a daily bullish order block is and how it affects liquidity. He also talks about an old weekly fair value gap that can be used as resistance.

Daily Bullish Order Block

• A daily bullish order block is not always an entry to go long, but rather a draw on liquidity.

• The market will want to reach into the PD array of the order block.

• The order block causes a nice little run-up in price.

• Consecutive candles inside the shaded area of an old weekly fair value gap are considered one price delivery for buy side.

Mean Threshold

• The mean threshold is the middle of the low of one candle to the high of another candle.

• Price can trade to and through but not close above mean threshold.

• Opening price marks the change in state of delivery.

Trading Strategies

• There are different trading strategies available such as optimal trade entry, fair value gap, 2022 model, and breakers.

• Stick with one strategy until you find consistency and profitability before trying out other models.

• Use consecutive up-close candles as one order block.

Understanding Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker explains what an order block is and how to identify it. He emphasizes that it is not visible on level two and that it is where the market changes its data delivery.

Identifying Order Blocks

• An order block is where traders sell short and buy at a lower price.

• It cannot be seen on level two.

• The shaded area indicates where the market changes its data delivery.

• Look for signatures of evidence in price action itself to determine if price shows willingness to treat this shaded area as resistance.

Bearish Order Block

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify a bearish order block and why it's important to understand where it resides.

Identifying a Bearish Order Block

• A bearish order block occurs when the state of delivery changes from buy side delivery to sell side delivery.

• Crossing below an opening price of a series of up-close candles does not make it an order block.

• The narrative behind where that order block resides is imperative because that's why everybody has books out there calling mentorships and courses talking about what an order block is.

Importance of Narrative Behind Order Block Residency

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the narrative behind where an order block resides.

Understanding Narrative Behind Order Block Residency

• The narrative behind where an order block resides is crucial in determining whether or not it's being treated as resistance or using it as a beginning point or inception of a sell-side delivery or cell program.

• If you're looking at it as resistance, we don't want to see the high traded like we treat a breakaway gap.

• The better setups form if the high is treated as an inversion fair value gap.

• You can pick your own model and find profitability by using what the speaker has taught.

Entry Points

In this section, the speaker explains that entry points are the least important factor in consistency and emphasizes that knowing where price is likely to go is more important.

Importance of Knowing Where Price Is Likely to Go

• Entry points are the least important factor in consistency.

• Knowing where price is likely to go is more important than entry points.

• You can find a myriad of entry points by applying what the speaker has taught.

• When price returns back up into a low, you can be short below it sell-side and start doing projections on all this price around here lower to see if it wants to dig in lower.

Focus on Relationships of What the Dollar Is Doing During Key Kill Zones

In this section, the speaker emphasizes focusing on relationships of what the dollar is doing during key kill zones.

Focusing on Relationships of What the Dollar Is Doing During Key Kill Zones

• The dollar will be highly sensitive to Forex s p NASDAQ Dao during key kill zones.

• It will use longer-term higher time draw of risk-on risk-off with a dollar but sometimes index can flex against that.

• Your Forex pairs can be free to move around when dollars being manipulated held in consolidation which it's not being here.

Market Manipulation and Economic Calendar

The speaker discusses the manipulation of the market and how economic calendars can be used to anticipate market moves.

Market Manipulation

• The speaker believes that companies are trading at unjustified levels due to market manipulation.

• However, he emphasizes the importance of sticking with what the market is showing and focusing on available opportunities.

• The speaker teaches traders to focus on what is available based on time.

Economic Calendar

• The speaker uses high impact or medium impact news drivers on an economic calendar as a tool for anticipating market moves.

• He does not believe that the markets move solely based on this information but rather use it as a smoke screen.

• By following the schedule of when price is likely to move, traders can time when these market moves are going to occur.

London Open and Order Block Theory

• London open typically forms between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM New York local time.

• Traders should focus on all New York local times.

• The entire down close candle range in the daily chart is considered an order block.

• If we're bearish, we want to see it trade initially into the open of it because that's this change in state of delivery. We then want to see it try to reach for the mean threshold.

• How we close after hitting mean threshold determines if it will continue going lower.

Candlestick Analysis and Gap Risk

In this section, the speaker discusses candlestick analysis and gap risk in trading. He explains how to identify bullish order blocks and fair value gaps, and warns against holding positions over the weekend due to potential gap risks.

Identifying Bullish Order Blocks

• A small area is still exposed on the middle of a candle.

• If we close below the mean threshold half of that candle's body, it indicates that it might want to keep going lower into next week.

• If it does go lower, it would reach for sell side below this candle's low and into a small inefficiency.

• The candle pointing to is a fair value Gap in the form of a buy-side and balanced cell sign efficiency.

Gap Risk in Trading

• Due to geopolitical issues and health concerns around the world, there is significant gap risk when trading over weekends.

• Most trading should be settled intraday unless traders are comfortable with gap risk.

• This is an ideal climate for day trading as gaps can be jarring and unpredictable.

Top-down Analysis of Market Trends

In this section, the speaker provides a top-down analysis of market trends based on his experience in algorithmic trading. He emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making based on accurate information.

Top-down Analysis

• The speaker provides detailed top-down analysis of what traders should look for when predicting market trends.

• The speaker's experience allows him to accurately predict market levels unless manual intervention steps in.

• Traders should not rely solely on other people's opinions and should make informed decisions based on accurate information.

Forex Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses his approach to forex trading and how he uses time zones to identify potential trades.

Time Zones for Forex Trading

• Forex traders focus on London and New York open Kill Zones.

• The speaker personally uses 1am as a buffer to account for daylight savings time.

• Trades can occur between 1am and 5am during the European open, with volume peaking between 7am and 9am during the London open.

• Between 5am and 7am is considered dead time, where no trades should be made.

Identifying Market Direction

• The speaker looks at weekly charts to determine if the market is going up or down based on gaps in price or old highs/lows.

• There are no shortcuts - it's either going up or down for one of two reasons.

• Bringing in other indicators or perspectives can lead to mistakes.

Risks in Forex Trading

• Unexpected events such as wartime events or manual interventions can incur risk in forex trading.

• It's important to be mindful of risks but not let them paralyze you from trading.

Understanding Liquidity Gaps and Fair Value Gaps

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify liquidity gaps and fair value gaps in the market. He also discusses how to use Fibonacci levels to determine the midpoint of these gaps.

Identifying Liquidity Gaps and Fair Value Gaps

• The speaker identifies the highest point and lowest point of a range using Fibonacci levels.

• He explains that any gap without overlapping price data is a real liquidity gap, while those with overlapping price data are fair value gaps.

• The midpoint of any gap is referred to as consequent encroachment, which is where prices are most likely to re-price towards.

Trading Strategies for Liquidity Gaps and Fair Value Gaps

• The speaker explains that if you're bearish, you want to see the upper end of an inefficiency or gap respected as resistance.

• He advises traders to target the lower end of a fair value gap when entering short trades.

• The speaker emphasizes that every element that makes up a trade has several factors, including some narrative reason why that trade should even form.

Framing Setups for Trades

In this section, the speaker talks about framing setups for trades by anticipating levels in price action.

Anticipating Levels in Price Action

• The speaker advises traders to pay attention when he shares his analysis on Twitter or live streams because he's telling them where he believes prices are likely going next.

• He emphasizes that every element that makes up a trade has several factors, including some narrative reason why that trade should even form.

• The speaker explains that the inception of a move is where it begins, but by itself, there has to be some narrative reason why that trade should even form.

• He emphasizes that every element that makes up a trade has several factors, including some narrative reason why that trade should even form.

[t=2:03:37s] Bias Problem Solved with Alum

The speaker explains that using alum can solve 80% of the bias problem.

Using Alum to Solve Bias Problem

• Expanding down right away with alum solves 80% of the bias problem.

[t=2:03:47s] Navigating Market News Drivers

The speaker discusses how to navigate market news drivers and avoid trading ahead of them.

Waiting for Calendar Events to Support or Negate Ideas

• Waiting for calendar events to support or negate ideas is important.

• Anticipating medium or high impact news driver creates volatility.

• After initial move, look for where stop losses reside above old highs or below where those highs and lows are formed.

Economic Calendar as Key Reference Point

• Economic calendar tells you when reports are coming up.

• Fundamentals cannot be timed on a report release; it's a myth.

• When predicting market reactions, use key points of reference in either the market being talked about or a specific time frame.

[t=2.06.39s] Decision Making Based on Daily Chart

The speaker explains how decision making is based on daily charts and how each individual daily candle forms.

Decision Making Based on Weekly Chart

• Decision making for day trades, short-term trades, or biases is derived from weekly chart.

• If bearish, look for how price gravitates to bullish order block.

Monitoring Daily Candle Formation

• Monitor how each individual daily candle forms.

• Primary interest is nailing down the high of the day.

[t=2:08:11s] Inefficiencies as Basis for Trade

The speaker explains how inefficiencies are used as a basis or framework for trade.

Using Inefficiencies as Basis for Trade

• Use inefficiencies as a basis or framework for trade.

• Strong probability for what the trade down two and through that order block.

[t=2:09:02s] Transposing Weekly Chart to All Time Frames

The speaker explains how to transpose weekly charts to all time frames and shows an example using the Kill Zone indicator.

Transposing Weekly Chart to All Time Frames

• Show annotations on all time frames by transposing weekly chart.

• Use Kill Zone indicator to show London open and deal with dollar index.

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of trading and market structure.

Inside the Window of Time

• The trade begins when the shift in market structure occurs.

• The high of the day forms between 2 am and 5 am New York local time.

• Other ingredients are required to calculate if the high of the day will form.

Trading at Consequent Encroachment

The speaker discusses how to trade at consequent encroachment.

Rejecting After Bumping High

• We want to see price showing willingness to go lower after bumping high.

• Price spends time in a range, efficiently delivered by keying off levels inside that shaded area.

Shift in Market Structure

• Energetic leave after leaving shaded area indicates a shift in market structure.

• Model 2022 buy side taken here.

New York Open Killzone

The speaker discusses trading during New York open killzone.

Continuation Setup

• Setup is going to form for continuation between 7 am and 9 am New York local time.

• Focus on what we've already worked up inside that consequent encroachment here.

Premium Array

• Premium array is at or higher than fair value gap relative to that high in that low.

• Price returning back up to that shaded area, specifically the low end of it.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by discussing the importance of having higher time frame logic and reference points in mind.

Importance of Reference Points

• Having reference points in mind helps to avoid getting lost while trading.

• Experience is required to work off a notepad without anything on your chart.

Anticipating Market Direction

In this section, the speaker discusses how to anticipate market direction using a higher time frame weekly chart. The logic taught by the speaker provides a framework for one-shot-one-kill setups where traders can take a large portion of the weekly range.

Using Weekly Chart for One-Shot-One-Kill Setups

• Anticipate market direction from higher time frame weekly chart

• Framework for one-shot-one-kill setups

• Focus on meat of the move, not highest high or lowest low

• Concepts aimed at finding meat of the move and avoiding failure

Finding Meat of the Move

In this section, the speaker continues discussing how to find meat of the move and avoid failure in trading.

Avoiding Failure in Trading

• Mentorship program for those who want to nitpick and get every little morsel out

• Knowing when not to tread in the marketplace makes you consistent and better than others

• Traders should define where they are likely to fail instead of focusing only on being profitable all the time

Social Media's Influence on Trading

In this section, the speaker talks about social media's influence on trading and how it can lead traders astray.

Social Media's Influence on Trading

• Social media cultivates an atmosphere that can lead traders to make emotional decisions

• Traders should stick to the rules of time and price instead of trying to outdo others

• Traders should spend time meditating on the weekly chart to anticipate market direction

Trigger Swing for Protractions or Fibonacci Extensions

In this section, the speaker discusses trigger swings for protractions or Fibonacci extensions.

Trigger Swings for Protractions or Fibonacci Extensions

• The entirety of the bullish over block is encapsulated in a daily chart

• The range is the entirety of the order block, and traders want to see it trade down to consequent encroachment and go below it

• The move shown is a trigger swing that measures what traders want to see for protractions or Fibonacci extensions

Understanding the Importance of Fibonacci and Time

In this section, the speaker explains how to use Fibonacci and time to determine where price can begin a move and where it can gravitate to.

Using Fibonacci for Trading

• The speaker uses Fibonacci only to determine the range that matters.

• A confluence of time is necessary, which is London close from 10 am to noon New York local time.

• The speaker adds a buffer when there's a big runoff day, which can extend into one o'clock.

Determining Inception of Move

• The inception of a move can be timed within a specific price level or range like an inefficiency.

• There are three specific price levels used on the basis of whether we're bullish or bearish.

• The higher the low of the day is between two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning during London open Kill Zone.

Entering Trades

• Every trade should have some kind of best-case scenario, something more than expected.

• There are different models for entering trades such as optimal trade entry, fair value guy, and 2022 model.

• Standard deviation is used to determine where price can gravitate.

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Understanding Power Three

In this section, the speaker explains how to use power three in any timeframe and identifies a false move up to a level which is the low of inefficiency that starts the framework of this Judas swing for the New York open.

Utilizing Power Three

• Power three can be utilized in any time frame.

• The speaker identifies a false move up to a level which is the low of inefficiency that starts the framework of this Judas swing for the New York open.

• The speaker advises taking partial profits at minimum below that low here and also below that blow here and wick whenever there's a wick.

• Consequent encroachment of Wicks and Tails are imperative partial places to take partials at so if you're short you have to factor in that price level and spread so you want to see the midpoint of that in a little bit above it if it trades down to that level here.

Confirmation in London

In this section, the speaker discusses how confirmation in London can indicate whether prices are likely to go lower or not.

Confirmation in London

• If you're bearish, seeing the London High form when you're bearish and it's breaking down indicates prices are likely to go lower.

• Whenever there's consequent encroachment of Wicks and Tails, take partial profits just above it because that means it might trade right to that midpoint.

Trading Inside A Range

In this section, the speaker explains how to trade inside a range and identify inefficiencies.

Trading Inside A Range

• When trading inside of a range, look for inefficiencies between that level in this high.

• Whenever there's a wick or tail inside of the range that you're trading in and you're expecting that range to be broken out, don't ignore any of these because many times they can completely reverse you and run your stop out if you've trailed it or completely reverse on your initial um stop loss.

• Take partial profits at the longest wick or tail by dividing it in half plus a little bit for spread when it gets there.

Managing Risk

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of managing risk while trading.

Managing Risk

• Trade with managing risk and use stop loss as an essential tool.

• Once we take that low out does it do it energetically? The next candle we open here best opening when this market trades up into the range of this high and this low.

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Trading Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses how markets are always being traded and how to analyze daily charts.

Daily Chart Analysis

• The speaker shows a random Euro/Dollar chart on a daily basis.

• The speaker points out a small gap in the chart and an order block.

• The speaker mentions that everything shown in the Dollar chart will be mirrored in the Euro chart.

• The speaker drops down to an hourly chart for more analysis.

Hourly Chart Analysis

• The speaker looks for price gravitation towards a gap from the 13th.

• The market drops down and takes out sell side, creating a mitigation block.

• The low of each candle is analyzed to determine if it respects or colors outside of the line.

• Mohawks are discussed as permissible deviations from perfect lines.

Trading Strategies for Euro Dollar

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade euro dollar and the importance of constantly referring to the dollar index.

Referring to the Dollar Index

• The speaker advises traders to constantly refer to what they're seeing on the market they're trading versus the dollar index.

• By doing so, traders can get feedback in relation to the dollar index and beat uncertainty or nagging feelings of not knowing when to exit a trade.

• Traders should always be looking for signatures that support a complete runoff and keep going lower.

Time and Price Theory

• The speaker emphasizes that time and price theory is not form-fitted but rather a personal aspect of trading that traders need to make uniquely theirs.

• Traders need to define their own parameters and framework for engaging with price action based on these theories.

Afternoon Trading

• The bulk of volume in forex and currency trading is between 2 am - noon local time in New York, so afternoon trading is not recommended.

• Traders should close up shop sometime between 10 am - noon New York local time, especially if targets have been hit. A small portion can be left on, but it's likely going to stop out.

Analyzing Euro Dollar Trading Patterns

In this section, the speaker analyzes euro dollar trading patterns using a five-minute chart.

London Open Stop Run

• London open classically seeks sell-side or buy-side liquidity. Traders can wait for a run before judging whether it has displacement higher swing high after taking stops.

• Traders can learn to buy the sell stops, but it's a hard thing to do and requires years of experience.

Energetic Run

• Traders want to see an energetic run once euro dollar clears a high. If it does, traders can expect it to keep going higher.

Time of Day

• The speaker advises traders to close up shop between 10 am - noon New York local time, especially if targets have been hit. A small portion can be left on, but it's likely going to stop out.

• Between 10 am - noon and later in the afternoon, volume for forex and currency trading starts to dry up.

English Trading Strategies for London Open

In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies for the London open and provides insights on how to determine entry and exit points.

Low Hanging Fruit Objective

• The low hanging fruit objective is to trade into the fair value gap.

• The speaker advises traders to frame their trades based on getting into that fairbanka.

• Traders should consider taking partial profits when price reaches the high of the order block.

Fulcrum Point

• The fulcrum point is important because it determines whether price will run through a high or not.

• When price trades through the fulcrum point, traders can start doing measurements in form of standard deviation.

• Traders should take off the measured move lines portion of their trade when it gets close to the high of the order block.

Continuation Pattern

• Generally, between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM New York local time, there's a sweet spot where markets create a continuation pattern.

• If you're long and it trades above a swing high, you want to be taking partial profits and exiting your position.

• Running down equity means selling at new highs and buying low.

High Forming Principle

• When you're long, every time it takes out a swing high, you should define that as your High.

• Traders should consider taking partial profits when price reaches two times its move.

• Negative two standard deviation is one of those levels where there's a lot of reason for traders to be wanting to be either out of the trade or have such a small little piece on if they're going to leave a runner on.

English Understanding SMT Divergence

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify SMT divergence and its significance in trading.

Identifying SMT Divergence

• Euro made a higher high while the dollar didn't make a lower low at the same time.

• Market symmetry suggests that in a perfect world, the US dollar should have made a lower low there in concert with the higher high in Euro.

• This is a USDX smt Divergence that means dollar which is USDX and Euro are not in agreement with what they've done at a critical time of day.

Significance of SMT Divergence

• SMT divergence makes the speaker cautious about expecting higher prices.

• The speaker recommends closing all long positions on euro-dollar and going into the weekend happy that they destroyed it.

• Key times for Forex and currency pairs are London open, New York open, and close.

June 13th Live Stream

• For further study, viewers can go to the June 13th live stream on the speaker's YouTube channel.

• At 7 minutes and 22 seconds into that video, listeners can hear an outline of two levels within this entire range here.

Recognizing Institutional Priceline

• Every institutional priceline that forms in price action in Forex and dollar will be primarily inside the timeline as outlined by the speaker.

• By recognizing patterns of repetition over time, traders learn to trust these times when things really happen.

Trading Strategy

• Once it's concluded that time is now at a period of time where opposite ends of ranges are formed, traders should close their trades on euro-dollar if it goes higher and the dollar makes a lower low.

• The speaker recommends having rules in place to avoid obsessively trying to justify trades after they've been closed.

• Traders should focus on Forex during key times of day, then transition to stock index futures and bond trading.

Teaching Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses how he would teach trading strategies to individuals on a one-on-one basis.

One-on-One Teaching Strategy

• The speaker explains that he would go through every single thing that was taught in the previous week to give students a foundation.

• He would then ask students where they want to focus their trading, whether it's on an hourly time frame for short-term intraday trades or using primarily just the daily chart for short-term trading.

• Depending on the student's preference, he would spend the latter portions of the week framing out a model for them so they can start working with it at home.

Checking Audio Quality

In this section, the speaker checks if his audio quality is good and asks viewers to confirm via Twitter.

Checking Audio Quality

• The speaker asks viewers to confirm via Twitter if his audio quality is good before continuing with his presentation.

Analyzing Forex Markets

In this section, the speaker analyzes forex markets and discusses how traders should constantly refer back to the relationship between the dollar index and the market they are trading.

Analyzing Forex Markets

• The speaker explains that traders should constantly refer back to the relationship between the dollar index and whatever market they are trading.

• On June 13th, 2023, during a live stream, he talked about how British pound would need to go into this Fairway Gap go above it and treat it as support before we would see a meaningful move up.

• He mentions that traders should cycle through different time frames when analyzing forex markets.

• He also emphasizes that traders should have two charts up - one for dollar index and another for whatever market they are trading.

Trading Strategies and Mindset

In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategies and mindset. He emphasizes the importance of not blindly following his concepts but finding one's own model that suits their trading style.

Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution Theory

• The speaker introduces his accumulation, manipulation, and distribution theory as a major transition from relying on everything he had learned from Larry Williams.

• He talks about how Larry struggled with understanding how to be a buyer below the opening price.

• The speaker advises against blindly following his concepts and encourages traders to find their own model that suits their trading style.

Understanding Market Movements

• The speaker discusses his analysis of the pound-dollar live stream on June 13th, 2023.

• He mentions the breaker low high lower low extended in future or bullish breaker.

• The speaker talks about an inefficiency on the downside of a daily chart candlestick.

• He emphasizes the importance of understanding market movements before making trades.

Day Trading Strategies

• The speaker talks about using predetermined levels for day trading.

• He mentions teaching about opening prices in one of his day trading modules.

• The speaker discusses unfinished business in a range and looking for up close candles to draw into predetermined levels.

Miscellaneous Topics

• The speaker mentions having no affinity for crypto and not discussing it much but acknowledges some students have made money trading it.

• He talks about a fake moon movement called Juda swing.

Trading Strategies and Character Flaws

In this section, the speaker talks about how he will change the title of the live stream to reflect the correct day. He also emphasizes that all content is live and shares his trading strategies. The speaker warns against developing character flaws in trading.

Live Stream Title Change

• The speaker mentions that he will change the title of the live stream to reflect the correct day.

• All content is live and available for viewers to watch.

Trading Strategies

• The speaker shares his trading strategies that have worked for him over 30 years.

• He emphasizes that these strategies are proven and work continuously.

• Seasonal tendencies are discussed as a factor in market performance.

Character Flaws in Trading

• The speaker warns against developing character flaws in trading early on.

• He shares his own experience with obsessively compulsive behavior regarding exits on positions.

• The importance of sticking to rules and not creating character flaws is emphasized.

Emotional Tug of War in Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how traders may experience emotional tug of war when making trades due to past experiences. He emphasizes that no trader ever reaches a point where they don't experience emotional tug of war.

Emotional Tug of War in Trading

• Traders may experience emotional tug of war when making trades due to past experiences.

• Past experiences can create distractions and cause traders to wrestle with their emotions during trades.

• No trader ever reaches a point where they don't experience emotional tug of war during trades.

Understanding Seasonal Tendencies

In this section, seasonal tendencies are discussed as a factor in market performance. The speaker explains what seasonal tendencies are and how they can be used by traders.

Understanding Seasonal Tendencies

• Seasonal tendencies are a factor in market performance.

• They refer to the tendency of certain asset classes or markets to perform a certain way during certain times of the year.

• Traders can use seasonal tendencies to inform their trading decisions.

Trading Strategies and Mental Health

In this section, the speaker talks about his trading strategies and how he has refined them over time. He emphasizes the importance of not forcing trades and instead relying on market indicators to make decisions. He also discusses the importance of mental health in trading.

Refining Trading Strategies

• The speaker wanted to see stock index futures trade lower throughout May into the first or second of June.

• The speaker warns against wanting to see something and then trying to impose your will in the marketplace by forcing a trade into it.

• The speaker defers to what the market is telling him as a more refined analyst, rather than imposing his own desires on it.

• The speaker trusts that everything is going higher, so he looks for buy stops and inefficiencies.

• The speaker uses weekly charts and daily charts to find setups for longer-term traders who don't like one-minute chart stuff.

Importance of Mental Health

• After nailing down a win, stop trading. Don't let your audience influence whether you take a trade or not.

• It's important not to get wrapped up in letting outward things create impulsive decisions about taking on risk.

• Don't listen to people who say "dance for me monkey." Stick with rigid rules that help you control impulsive behavior caused by chemical imbalances.

• Trading while battling mental illness requires more rigid rules than average because it's highly technical and difficult.

Accumulation Manipulation Distribution Concept

• The accumulation manipulation distribution concept can be used on any time frame, but the speaker introduced it with the daily chart.

• Larry Williams taught that usually, the open is near a market day that has a big range.

Understanding Price Movement on Weekly Charts

In this section, the speaker explains how to anticipate bullishness and use weekly charts to identify price movements with magnitude reaching into an objective that has been identified.

Using Weekly Charts for Anticipating Bullishness

• When anticipating bullishness, it is important to look at the weekly chart with the expectation of an expansion move.

• The weekly chart might have only a one-day event that creates the run to what we would expect as a draw on liquidity.

• By looking at the weekly chart, we are taking insights and transposing them to lower time frame charts such as daily, four-hour, one-hour, and anything less all the way down to five-second charts.

Identifying Unfinished Business

• If we're bullish and expecting the dollar going lower, cable or pound dollar is likely to go higher and move up into this shaded area which is referred to as unfinished business.

• If you're buying at the top of this fairbankment outline then we would be expecting something at the form when we did our livestream on June 13th.

Understanding Liquidity and Price Delivery

• The dance between liquidity and how it's utilized in price delivery requires taking a step back from thinking about things in terms of overbought oversold and indicator settings.

• You have to look at who's available right now to take the other side of your trade and utilize that as a bus stop or mile marker between where you are and where it's ultimately going.

Setting Realistic Objectives

• Terminus is just where you define where the low hanging fruit objective is. If it just gets that far, you've made money.

• Whenever there's a high or a low that you're expecting to be breached traded to and through, if there is a wick or a tail consequent encroachment that midpoint, you must always take a partial.

Identifying Gradient Levels

• Above this buy side, we have the low quarter percent of the lower quarter gradient level of this entire range then we have consequential which is midpoint.

• The next objective would be 127 754. That's a finite number it's it's it's a static number so if you were targeting that for another partial you would factor in spread so you would deduct whatever your typical spread is for your pound dollar Forex pair and then you would have a.

Trading Strategies for Weekly Charts

In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies for weekly charts and how to identify inefficiencies in the market.

Using Higher Time Frame Annotations

• The speaker recommends using higher time frame annotations on your weekly chart to avoid surprises.

• By showing these annotations on every time frame, you can better understand support and resistance levels.

• These annotations help traders determine what qualifies as a support or resistance level.

Identifying Inefficiencies in the Market

• The shaded area on the weekly chart represents one weekly candle where prices only went down.

• To reprice efficiently, prices need to deliver on the upside until they reach a certain point.

• There is an inefficiency in the form of a sell-side imbalance bias efficiency on that Weekly chart.

Analyzing Price Action from June 14th

In this section, the speaker analyzes price action from June 14th and discusses how to use inefficiencies to determine support and resistance levels.

London Open Killzone

• The London open killzone runs from 2 am to 5 am local time.

• Prices gap up and rip off into this period before retracing slightly.

Using Inefficiencies to Determine Support and Resistance Levels

• The low of the weekly imbalance that fair value got is a signature that indicates real support and resistance levels.

• When moves respect higher time frame inefficiencies or areas where a real gap would be, it's an indication of strong support or resistance levels.

• Mohawks outside of these ranges are permissible but should be treated with caution.

English Understanding Market Inefficiencies

The speaker discusses how to read inefficiencies and liquidity across higher time frames transposed to lower time frames. They also explain how a shift in market structure can occur at the low of a weekly inefficiency or gap.

Real Order Flow vs Retail Viewpoint

• Real order flow is used to identify inefficiencies and liquidity across higher time frames.

• Retail viewpoint is used to understand what retail traders see in relation to real order flow.

Shift in Market Structure

• A shift in market structure can occur at the low of a weekly inefficiency or gap.

• This shift can be identified by looking for short-term highs that break through consolidation points.

Using Down Close Candle for Entry

• To use a down close candle for entry, wait until it trades into the range and repels price.

• Once this occurs, take the entire range for entry using the lowest down close candle as support.

English Trading Ahead of CPI

The speaker advises against trading ahead of CPI due to the high level of risk involved.

Accuracy of Predictions

• The speaker admits that they are generally not accurate when predicting CPI outcomes.

• They caution their students against trading ahead of CPI due to the high level of risk involved.

Importance of Risk Management

• By advising against trading ahead of CPI, the speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management in trading.

• Traders should always consider potential risks before making any trades.

English Trading Strategies for High Impact News Drivers

In this transcript, the speaker discusses trading strategies for high impact news drivers such as CPI, FMC, and non-farm payroll. The speaker emphasizes the importance of waiting for these events to occur before making trades and provides insights into how to trade them safely.

Importance of Waiting for High Impact News Drivers

• The speaker advises waiting for high impact news drivers such as CPI, FMC, and non-farm payroll before making trades.

• These events can cause significant market volatility and liquidity issues that make it difficult to execute trades.

• Waiting allows traders to assess the market's reaction to the news driver and make informed decisions about their trades.

Characteristics of High Impact News Drivers

• High impact news drivers tend to be characterized by wild price swings and increased volatility.

• Traders with open profitable positions should be cautious during these events as they may run against them or offset trailed stop losses.

• Non-farm payroll and CPI are particularly violent events that can quickly wipe out profits if traders are not careful.

Trading Strategies for High Impact News Drivers

• New traders should avoid trading high impact news drivers until they have gained more experience.

• Experienced traders can take advantage of inefficiencies in liquidity after non-farm payroll events but should still exercise caution.

• Traders should wait until after a high impact news driver has occurred before making trades. This allows them to assess the market's reaction and make informed decisions.

English Importance of Following Trading Rules

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of following trading rules and avoiding overconfidence. He shares his own experiences of getting "smashed around" and losing money due to not following rules.

Avoiding Mistakes

• The speaker wishes he had someone to teach him how to avoid mistakes and save him from pain.

• Overconfidence is a common mistake among traders, leading them to try to outperform their own algorithm.

• Rigidly following simple trading rules can help avoid mistakes caused by the human element.

Trading Sessions

• The morning session (8:30am - 11am) is recommended for new traders, while experienced traders can also trade during lunchtime.

• New students should focus on finding one good setup per week and building on that over time.

• It's easy to get drunk on winning and make mistakes, so it's important to stay focused on the rules.

English Analyzing NASDAQ Hourly Chart

In this section, the speaker analyzes the NASDAQ hourly chart and explains how he treats tails and wicks as gaps in his algorithm.

Bullishness

• The low for maintaining bullishness is consequent corrosion at 15,054.5.

• The best scenario for continuation on the upside would be from the high of the wick or tail down to consequent encroachment.

Price Action

• When watching price action live, the speaker reads candle by candle and looks at the bodies and wicks to determine where to enter or exit trades.

Reading Price and Tape

In this section, the speaker discusses how he reads price and tape to determine market movements. He explains that he looks at the willingness of bodies to close or open at certain levels, as well as the proximity of lows and highs.

Consequent Encroachment

• The speaker notes that a consequent encroachment is a warning sign that the market may go lower.

• However, he cautions that two lows in close proximity are not enough to warrant a drop in price.

Balanced Price Range

• The speaker defines a balanced price range as when markets stay within a range before leaving due to upside or downside being delivered on price.

• He notes that single pass down and single pass up movements create a balanced price range.

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of defining the highest and lowest extremes of this range.

Algorithmic Trading

• The speaker points out that all bodies of candles respect the midpoint of this balanced price range.

• He notes that these concepts are not taught in any retail trading books but are instead authorship.

Dollar Movement

• The speaker mentions that dollar movement affects other asset classes such as foreign currency and stock indices.

• He explains how risk-on is associated with dollar lower movement.

Understanding Market Boundaries

In this section, the speaker discusses how to understand market boundaries and why it's important not to rely on a single video or lecture.

Rules for Commitment of Traders Net Trader Physicians

• The commercials being net long doesn't necessarily mean it's time to go long.

• There are rules to all these things, and it's important not just to watch one video or lecture.

Limitations of Market Movement

• When coding in a limitation of how far the market is going to go, it's limited to a degree.

• Wicks are permitted to do a certain measure of damage.

Balanced Price Range

• A balanced price range is going back to equilibrium.

• Candlesticks support the idea of the principle being taught.

• It's happening every time there is a balanced price range.

Power Three

• Power three is open down close rally close on high open drop rally close on high.

• Order flow at that time determines whether it's bullish or bearish.

• On a 15-minute basis, you can use power three as an indicator for buying.

Fair Value Gap

• To identify and map out fair value gaps, use two reference points - the low and high of two candles.

• Expand the encapsulation like we did over here for a balanced price range.

• This creates an island reversal with multiple candles segregated from all movement.

Overall, this section provides insights into understanding market boundaries through various indicators such as commitment of traders net trader physicians, limitations of market movement, balanced price ranges, power three and fair value gap.

Principles and Concepts for Determining Fair Value Gaps

In this section, the speaker discusses the principles and concepts used to determine when fair value gaps will stay open. He explains that he shares live examples of executing trades on Twitter and YouTube, where he talks about fair value gaps and balanced price ranges.

Live Examples of Trading Fair Value Gaps

• The speaker shares live examples of executing trades on Twitter and YouTube.

• He talks about fair value gaps and balanced price ranges during these live examples.

• These videos show a small two-minute compression of him executing trades with annotations.

Breakaway Gaps

• A breakaway gap is expected to form when there is a bullish market, and a key level has been identified as support.

• A balanced price range at equilibrium can act as support or be presented as support.

• The speaker shows an example of a breakaway gap in the chart.

Balanced Price Ranges

• Every time there's a balanced price range, the speaker brings attention to it during live executions.

• A balanced price range can exist in any place in a discount or premium.

• There are other PD arrays like Event Horizon that can exist in any range of that spectrum which they define as discount or premium.

Fair Value Gap Classification

• The speaker classifies certain gaps as breakaway gaps based on whether there is a balanced price range present or not.

• If there is no gap present between two favorite gaps, then it creates a balanced price range between them.

• Regardless of whether another gap exists on the other side, if this gap creates a balanced price range, it is classified by the speaker as a breakaway gap.

Understanding Price Action

In this section, the speaker explains how he analyzes price action and why he trusts order flow over technical indicators.

Analyzing Candlestick Charts

• The speaker uses a 15-minute candlestick chart to analyze price movement.

• He trusts order flow over technical indicators and believes that all candlesticks support each other.

• A strong balance price range is created when there is back-and-forth movement between overlapping areas.

• The speaker emphasizes that understanding balance price ranges is not necessary for trading but can provide more clarity in reading price action.

Learning from Larry Williams

• The speaker learned from Larry Williams' material but found his strategy of buying on strength did not work for him.

• He encourages traders to find what works for them and stick with it instead of trying to implement every concept they learn.

Finding Your Trading Model

• Traders should spend time backtesting and finding concepts that make sense to them.

• The easiest concepts are often the most effective, so traders should focus on what makes sense to them rather than trying to tinker too much with their model.

The Importance of Consistency in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of being a long-term consistently profitable trader and not just seeking short-term gains.

Long-Term Profitability Takes Time

• Short-term gains are not true success in trading.

• It takes time to become a consistently profitable trader.

• Don't abandon a successful strategy for something new.

Understanding Price Action

• Price action is interconnected and should be viewed as a whole structure.

• Certain aspects of price action may take time to manifest, especially after high or medium impact news drivers.

Analyzing Charts for Trading Opportunities

In this section, the speaker analyzes a chart and discusses how to identify trading opportunities using ICT Silver Bullets.

Identifying Trading Opportunities

• Analyze charts for balance price range equilibrium and Breakaway Gaps.

• Look for down close candles during the 10am to 11am New York local time period for ICT Silver Bullet trades.

• Use smaller time frames if necessary to find an opportunity.

The Importance of Taking Partial Profits and Using Stop Losses

• Taking partial profits is important for long-term profitability.

• Gradually expanding outside your comfort zone can help you learn more about yourself as a trader.

• Always use a stop loss to respect the risk available in the markets.

The Role of ICT Silver Bullets

• ICT Silver Bullets work because there is always displacement between 10am and 11am.

• Displacement creates opportunities for trading, but it's important to use caution and not assume you're always right.

Understanding Gap Theory

In this section, the speaker explains Gap Theory and how to use it in trading.

How to Use Gap Theory

• John Q Public is watching the ticker tape and he's saying okay my stock opened up two dollars more where it closed yesterday this is amazing I'm making money well that Gap is going to close likely and then it drops down then after that Gap fills if it fills at all then there's new sentiment that shifts.

• Use Gap Theory with new week opening gap, new day opening gap, any fair value gap, or any real liquidity void.

• What separates the support behind that Gap is the consequent culture in the midpoint how we trade there at time of day.

• At 10 o'clock we have 30 minutes behind us which is why I tell you the 30 minute opening range that's important every algorithm uses that first 30 minutes.

Trading Strategies for NASDAQ and ES

In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies for NASDAQ and ES.

Trading Strategies for NASDAQ and ES

• The speaker uses continuous contractors to get a higher time frame perspective.

• By side liquidity here. There is an order block there.

• Our focus was on ES as there was an unfilled or re-traded weekly imbalance of volume and balance on E-mini S&P.

• If you want to do long trades using relative strength analysis, trade NASDAQ as it has been clearly leading in Tech.

• The theory of Six Sisters suggests that as long as the leadership issue goes higher, which is NASDAQ, ES should move sympathetically higher to try to catch up.

NASDAQ and Stock Indices Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses their analysis of stock indices, specifically NASDAQ. They mention waiting for CPI on June 13th live stream and how it could potentially cause a big dive lower for the sell side. The speaker also talks about using Dow Theory to compare averages and confirm one another.

Analysis of ES Chart

• The speaker mentions that they were definitive on stock indices at the time of the live stream.

• The speaker pulls up a chart and says that 39,628 would be the Drone liquidity.

• The speaker thinks ES is going to pull up into 4500 or just below it.

Importance of 15 Minute Chart

• The speaker explains that a 15-minute chart is like a Bellwether chart because it gives you the best short-term entries and targets.

• The speaker advises against using sub-one minute charts as they can be misleading.

Comparing Averages with Dow Theory

• The speaker shows how to compare lows on different averages using line charts.

• If there's a lower low in your trading instrument, comparing other averages against it can act as a qualifier for taking trades without smt divergence.

Understanding Market Correlations and Divergences

In this section, the speaker discusses how to identify market correlations and divergences. They explain that when Dollar is bearish, the relative strength leader is the one that makes a failed lower low. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of having multiple monitors to monitor different markets.

Identifying Correlated Pairs

• When Dollar is bearish, Euro dollar makes a lower low while pound dollar makes a higher low.

• The relative strength leader is the one that makes the failed lower low.

• Use inter-market relationships and intra-Market relationships to monitor closely correlated markets.

Importance of Multiple Monitors

• Have at least two charts open on separate monitors or screens.

• Trading on a cell phone can be difficult as it limits visibility and access to information.

Using SMT Divergences

• SMT divergences should not be used as an entry point alone.

• Look for accumulation and distribution patterns in addition to SMT divergences.

• Do not solely rely on charts for identifying SMT divergences.

Using Accumulation Distribution Formula

In this section, the speaker discusses using Larry Williams' accumulation distribution formula for trading commodities. They explain how they used it in combination with oversold conditions on hourly charts to enter long positions.

Using Accumulation Distribution Formula for Commodities

• Used Larry Williams' accumulation distribution formula for trading commodities.

• Used 50-day moving average as a bullish qualifier.

• Looked for oversold conditions on hourly charts with stochastic and Williams percent R indicators.

Importance of Context in Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of context in trading strategies. They explain that SMT divergences should be used in the proper context and not as a magic bullet for entry points.

Importance of Context

• SMT divergences should be used in the proper context.

• Do not solely rely on SMT divergences for entry points.

• Use SMT divergences in combination with other indicators and patterns to identify accumulation and distribution.

Understanding the First 30 Minutes of Trading

In this section, the speaker explains how the first 30 minutes of trading can impact the market and how institutional orders can influence it.

The Initial Surge of Institutional Orders

• The first 30 minutes after price delivery is crucial for traders to buy and sell in the marketplace.

• Institutional orders are thrown out during this time, creating an initial surge in buying and selling.

• This impulsiveness usually comes into the marketplace and is now behind us.

The First Full Hour of Trading

• After the initial surge, we're now in the first full hour of trading after the bow.

• This period is similar to London's intraday movement range in a 24-hour cycle.

• A lot of volume comes into Forex during this time, making it a good opportunity for algorithms to find profitability.

Algorithmic Trading

• Algorithms wait for that first impulsiveness to run higher or lower before dog piling on it.

• It's not a measure of selling or buying pressure that's pushing it; rather, algorithms offer it to them.

• Everything in price is scripted, manipulated, and controlled. Traders look for small inefficiencies when aiming for a higher time frame target.

Finding Fair Value Gap

In this section, the speaker explains how traders can find fair value gaps by looking at directional bias and using past data.

Directional Bias

• If you have a higher time frame bias looking for a reason to go higher, expect some kind of run higher from 9:30 going into 10 o'clock.

• If you're bearish and expecting it to move lower, fair value gap could form in the move from 9:30's opening down to 10 o'clocks low.

Using Past Data

• The fair value gap doesn't have to form in itself inside of that one-hour period.

• It can refer back to some fairway gap that formed in the run-up.

• If there is an inefficiency or fair value, traders can use it as an entry point.

Looking Back at Trades

In this section, the speaker talks about his past trades and how they can help traders understand his teaching better.

Reviewing Past Trades

• The speaker asks if anyone has a full collection of every single execution he's ever made public.

• He encourages traders to review past trades to see how he applies his teachings.

• Traders can go back and see how he talked about certain things and how he executed them.

Analyzing Gold Trading

In this section, the speaker talks about gold trading and using FOMC setups.

Using Forex.com for Consistency

• The speaker always uses forex.com for consistency since different brokers may have different opinions on high and low prices.

Predicting Gold Prices

• The speaker predicts that gold prices will go below the sell side relative equal loads.

• Traders can find more information on this prediction at the 20-minute and five-second marker of the June 13th video with analysis.

FOMC Setups

• The speaker will teach traders how to trade FOMC setups in future videos.

Introduction

In this section, the speaker introduces the topic of discussion and mentions that they will be looking at a 15-minute chart to analyze market trends.

Market Analysis

• The speaker identifies a level from the daily chart which is the relative equal lows at 1938.20.

• On June 13th, another low was created below this level, leading to a large pool of sell stops.

• The real market makers control price and manipulate gold prices heavily.

• Once you understand how to read price and what range you're in presently, it's easy to identify what is oversold without any indicator.

Trading Strategies

• The speaker advises against trading in these market environments as it requires experience and knowledge.

• It's important to know what you're doing before putting real money into trading.

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Brokers' Risk Management

The speaker explains why brokers pull their availability of trade during the initial surge of a report. They do not want to be caught on the wrong side of a lucky trader and incur risk.

Brokers' Risk Management

• Brokers pull their availability of trade during the initial surge of a report to avoid incurring risk.

• Brokers protect themselves by saving their own ass, and they are not willing to take risks even if there is an opportunity for profit.

• Brokers with millions of dollars available and customer deposits will not take risks on over-leveraged positions on big fast runners.

• It is better to wait for the first initial surge before trading because it paints all possible scenarios.

Gold Trading Strategies

The speaker discusses gold trading strategies, including how traders can use inefficiencies in price action to go short or long.

Gold Trading Strategies

• Traders can use inefficiencies in price action when gold drops down and falls short of its objective, then rips up higher.

• When gold drops down into an inefficiency, it offers an opportunity for traders to go short.

• The speaker advises against trading gold due to its unpredictability and suggests that there are better markets to trade.

• Most times, gold creates a run in one direction that is a complete Judas swing where it runs creates a high but does not come back to that high and just makes a lower low in the day.

ES Futures Contract

The speaker discusses the delivery contract month for NQ and compares it to the S&P and NASDAQ futures contracts.

ES Futures Contract

• The speaker compares the S&P and NASDAQ futures contracts, discussing which one has been the leadership on the upside and which one has the strongest price delivery for being bullish.