Philippe Gattet, Xerfi Canal Prendre une décision : rationalité, intuition, opportunisme
Understanding Opportunistic Decision-Making in Business
The Nature of Decision-Making
- Decisions in businesses are often not rational and tend to follow opportunistic logics, as highlighted by James March from Stanford University.
- Managers typically do not start by gathering information; instead, they act based on their intuition and experience, which is contrary to the expected decision-making process.
Justification of Decisions
- Collected information is primarily used to justify pre-existing decisions rather than inform them.
- Managers wait for favorable conditions before making decisions, exemplifying opportunism in their approach.
Case Study: Investment in Big Data
- A scenario illustrates a manager's hesitation to invest in big data due to uncertainty and timing concerns.
- Eventually, the manager decides to invest when logistics also express a need for big data investment, influenced by media discussions and financial assurances.
The Garbage Can Model
- James March's "garbage can" model theorizes that decision-making resembles throwing questions into a bin until one aligns with an existing solution or interest.
- The chosen problem or question reflects the manager’s interests at that moment, leading them to make decisions that serve their economic goals.
Trusting Intuition Over Information
- According to March, managers form opinions based on intuition rather than exhaustive information collection due to time constraints.
- Political calculations and career strategies may also influence managerial decisions, reinforcing the opportunistic nature of their choices.