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ICT Charter Price Action Model 1 \ Amplified Lecture
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ICT Charter Price Action Model 1 \ Amplified Lecture

Revisiting Model Number One

In this section, the speaker discusses revisiting Model Number One and provides further refinement on what should be applied to the foundational study.

Refining the Individual Models

  • Each price action model has its own individual foundational premise.
  • It is not necessary to include every possible tool or concept in your trading plan.
  • The speaker advises against trying to fit every learned concept into a trading plan.
  • A complete and sound trading plan can be simplified and written on the back of a business card.

Importance of Simplifying Trading Plans

This section emphasizes the importance of simplifying trading plans and not seeking external approval for one's model.

Simplifying Trading Plans

  • A complete trading plan or model does not need to be overly detailed or complex.
  • Institutional order flow, external range liquidity, and targeting basis are key components to consider.
  • Risk parameters and account size should be worked out on a personal level.
  • Approval for a trading model comes from finding consistency with it through utilization and data analysis.

Surviving Without COT Data

This section highlights that traders can survive without Commitment of Traders (COT) data by focusing on price action analysis.

Not Relying on COT Data

  • Price action analysis can provide insights into bullishness or bearishness without relying on COT data.
  • Traders do not need to seek approval for their models from others but rather find consistency through utilization and studying forward-looking data.

Fleshing Out Trading Models

This section discusses fleshing out trading models by utilizing swing points and understanding long-term institutional order flow.

Utilizing Swing Points

  • Waiting for swing highs and swing lows to form can be a simple way to keep new traders on the right side of long-term institutional order flow.
  • The study of price action will precede the formation of swing points, allowing for a refined understanding of market movements.

Refining the Study of Price Action

This section emphasizes refining the study of price action as an essential aspect of trading models.

Refining Price Action Analysis

  • Understanding price action patterns and formations is crucial in refining trading models.
  • Swing points will form at ideal locations, such as swing lows for buying opportunities and swing highs for short selling.
  • The speaker mentions that this teaching is part of their installment for 2019.

The transcript provided does not contain enough content to create additional sections.

Understanding Premium to Discount in Forex Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of Premium to Discount in forex trading and how it can be utilized for analysis.

Analyzing Price Action on a Daily Chart

  • The speaker suggests analyzing price action on a daily chart to determine whether the market is at a premium or discount.
  • By understanding the premium or discount range, traders can identify potential buying or selling opportunities.

Advantage for New Members

  • New members who have gone through the foundational study do not need to spend a full year before reaching this lesson.
  • This gives them an advantage over the first group of members who had to complete a full calendar year of study.

Market Structure and Bullish/Bearish Signals

  • The speaker explains that market structure plays a crucial role in determining bullish or bearish signals.
  • A bullish market structure is established when price rallies above a swing high, indicating an upward trend.
  • Similarly, a bearish market structure is formed when price breaks below a swing low, signaling a downward trend.

Key Institutional Volatility Patterns

  • Traders should look for underlying patterns that indicate key institutional volatility.
  • When the market is at a premium (overbought), there is a higher probability of bearishness and large injections of volatility.
  • Conversely, when the market is at a discount (oversold), there is a higher probability of bullishness and potential buying opportunities.

Optimal Trade Entry Points

  • Traders should aim for optimal trade entry points by anticipating swing highs and lows rather than waiting for them to form.
  • For short positions, traders can enter 10, 20, or 30 pips above the high after price breaks down from a premium level.
  • For long positions in discounted markets, traders can enter after price violates a low and returns back up towards the breaker level.

High Probability Trading

  • The speaker emphasizes that trading is not about achieving a 100% success rate but rather focusing on high probability scenarios.
  • Traders should understand the context and underlying price structure to increase their chances of successful trades.

Identifying Market Structure for Trading Opportunities

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify market structure for trading opportunities based on premium and discount levels.

Premium Levels and Bearish Scenarios

  • When the market is at a premium level, indicating overbought conditions, traders should look for a high followed by a breakdown of a short-term low.
  • This indicates that stops have been taken out and there are trapped traders who may become counterparty sellers as price drops.
  • Retracements back up from premium levels are expected to be shallow, making it an ideal scenario for short positions.

Discount Levels and Bullish Scenarios

  • When the market is at a discount level, indicating oversold conditions, traders should look for a violated low after sell-side liquidity has been run.
  • This indicates that there are trapped sellers who may become counterparty buyers as price rises.
  • Retracements back up from discount levels are expected to be limited, making it an ideal scenario for long positions.

Importance of Entry Points

  • Traders can achieve better entry points by trading at specific levels (10, 20, or 30 pips above the high) without waiting for swing highs to form.
  • Waiting for swing highs or lows can still be done to support the trade idea but is not necessary for entering trades at optimal levels.

Reverse Approach in Discounted Markets

  • In discounted markets, the approach is reversed compared to premium markets.
  • Buying opportunities arise when there is a violated low followed by price returning back up towards the breaker level.

Focus on High Probability Situations

  • By focusing on situations where market structure aligns with premium or discount levels, traders can increase the probability of successful trades.
  • It is important to understand that losses may still occur, but the goal is to trade based on high probability scenarios.

Achieving High Probability Trades

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of high probability trades and provides insights into achieving them.

Understanding Market Structure

  • Traders should focus on understanding market structure and its impact on trading opportunities.
  • By identifying premium and discount levels, traders can anticipate potential price movements and make informed decisions.

Bearish Scenarios

  • In bearish scenarios, traders should look for a high followed by a breakdown of a short-term low.
  • This indicates trapped traders who may become counterparty sellers as price drops.
  • Retracements back up from premium levels are expected to be shallow, providing better entry points for short positions.

Bullish Scenarios

  • In bullish scenarios, traders should look for a violated low after sell-side liquidity has been run.
  • This indicates trapped sellers who may become counterparty buyers as price rises.
  • Retracements back up from discount levels are expected to be limited, making it an ideal scenario for long positions.

Entry Points and Swing Points

  • Traders can enter trades at optimal levels (10, 20, or 30 pips above the high) without waiting for swing highs to form.
  • Waiting for swing points can still be done to support the trade idea but is not necessary for entering trades at optimal levels.

Focus on High Probability Situations

  • The speaker reiterates that trading is about focusing on high probability situations rather than aiming for a 100% success rate.
  • By understanding market structure and utilizing premium and discount levels, traders can increase their chances of successful trades.

Bank Deals and Technical Analysis

This section discusses how bank deals are formed based on technical analysis and trading. The data range used includes the last 20, 40, and 60 trading days.

Bank Deals Based on Daily Data

  • Bank deals are formed based on open, high, low, and close prices of the daily data.
  • The data range used for analysis is dynamic and moves forward in the calendar.
  • Sundays are not counted when considering the data range.

Incorporating Candlestick Wicks in Optimal Trade Entries

This section explains the importance of incorporating candlestick wicks when making optimal trade entries.

Using Candlestick Bodies for Core Volume Analysis

  • When looking at optimal trade entries, only the bodies of the candles are considered for core volume analysis.
  • The wicks of the candles are not used for determining trade entries.
  • Price action within a specific range can indicate potential buying or selling opportunities.

Identifying Swing Highs for Trade Confirmation

This section discusses how swing highs can be used as confirmation points for trades.

Confirming Breakout Points

  • To confirm a breakout point, a swing high needs to be broken to the upside.
  • Once a swing high is broken, traders wait for price to retrace back into that same area.
  • Previous swing lows can serve as potential entry points after a breakout.

Deep Discounts and Bullish Order Blocks

This section explains how deep discounts relative to daily dealing ranges can indicate bullish order blocks.

Buying Opportunities in Deep Discounts

  • Deep discounts relative to daily dealing ranges present buying opportunities.
  • A bullish order block at these levels increases the probability of successful trades.
  • Returning back to equilibrium or discount levels further enhances the probabilities.

Using the PD Array Matrix for Swing Point Analysis

This section highlights the importance of using the PD Array Matrix for swing point analysis.

Unlocking Market Structure with Swing Points

  • The PD Array Matrix helps identify energetic swing points.
  • Energetic swing points indicate movement and unlock market structure.
  • Applying the PD Array Matrix concept improves trade analysis and decision-making.

Bringing Together Breakers, Order Blocks, and Market Structure

This section emphasizes how breakers, order blocks, and market structure come together in trading analysis.

Integration of Trading Concepts

  • Breakers, order blocks, and market structure are key concepts in trading analysis.
  • When applied together with the PD Array Matrix, they provide a comprehensive understanding of price movements.
  • Recognizing these patterns can lead to epiphanies or "aha" moments in trading analysis.

Adapting to Different Timeframes for Scalping

This section discusses adapting to different timeframes when scalping trades.

Utilizing Lower Timeframes for Scalping

  • If there is no clear market structure on the daily timeframe, traders can drop down to lower timeframes like 4-hour or 1-hour charts.
  • Scalping trades can still be executed based on day-of-week phenomena and overlapping scenarios.
  • The original premise from model number five can be used as a basis for buying or selling decisions.

Defining Dealing Ranges for Entry Points

This section explains how dealing ranges are defined for entry points in trades.

Defining Dealing Ranges Based on Price Swings

  • Price swings help define dealing ranges for entry points.
  • Identifying present dealing ranges within larger price swings increases trade probabilities.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to calibrate entry points within dealing ranges.

Entry Point Calibration and Targeting

This section discusses the calibration of entry points and targeting in trades.

Calibrating Entry Points with Fibonacci Levels

  • Optimal trade entries are calibrated using the bodies of candles and Fibonacci retracement levels.
  • The lower body of a candle is used as the starting point, while the highest close is used as the reference for calibration.
  • Once entry points are calibrated, targeting previous day highs or other significant price levels can be considered.

Applying Trading Strategies on Different Timeframes

This section explains how trading strategies can be applied on different timeframes.

Adapting Strategies to Lower Timeframes

  • If there is no clear market structure on higher timeframes, traders can adapt their strategies to lower timeframes like 15-minute charts.
  • Scalping trades based on day-of-week phenomena and overlapping scenarios can still be executed effectively.
  • Utilizing PD Array Matrix and data ranges from previous days helps identify potential targets for exits or further analysis.

New Section

The speaker discusses the price movement and clears the highs of previous days, indicating a bullish trend.

Price Movement and Clearing Highs

  • The price runs up and surges, clearing Monday's high.
  • It also clears Friday's high.
  • There is a high ret.
  • The speaker mentions traces of runs from the Wednesday of the previous week's high.
  • The price comes back down and finds support at the Wednesday high. There is significant price action around this level.

New Section

The speaker analyzes the daily chart to identify key levels of support and resistance.

Analyzing Daily Chart

  • The speaker refers to a specific day's high as a point of reference for daily highs and lows within the last 20 days.
  • They highlight several old daily highs within this timeframe, including one on January 15th, 2019.
  • The price consolidates around the Wednesday high before moving beyond the scope of the 20-day lookback period.

New Section

The speaker explains how to use rejection blocks and higher time frames to identify scalping setups.

Using Rejection Blocks and Higher Time Frames

  • The rejection block is identified based on closing prices or highs in relation to previous candles' highs or lows on higher time frames such as Daily charts.
  • Scalping setups can form from higher time frames even if they are not visible on lower time frames like 5-minute or 15-minute charts.
  • Including price structure and elements behind price action movements is crucial for trading with an advantage.

New Section

The speaker discusses the potential bearish scenario when market structure breaks and traders are trapped.

Bearish Scenario and Scalping

  • When market structure breaks, trapping traders near highs, there is a higher probability of the price moving lower.
  • This bearish scenario can be used for scalping during the New York open.
  • The speaker suggests applying this model to multiple currency pairs in a basket, including pairs like Pound Yen or Euro Yen.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the importance of finding one profitable scalp per week using a specific method.

Finding Profitable Scalps

  • The goal is to find one 25 to 30 pip scalp every week using a specific method.
  • By consistently capturing small portions of price action each week, significant growth and compounding potential can be achieved over time.
  • The speaker provides examples of potential returns based on different investment amounts and compounding strategies. They also mention the need to consider taxation and self-directed IRAs for trading Forex in certain jurisdictions.

New Section

The speaker concludes by highlighting the simplicity of the model presented and its potential for consistent profits.

Conclusion

  • The presented model may seem complex at first but encompasses various elements covered in their mentorship program.
  • By focusing on one setup per week, capturing small portions of price action, and compounding profits, significant growth can be achieved.
  • The speaker encourages applying this model to different currency pairs and emphasizes the potential for consistent profits over time.

Why Start with Simpler Objectives

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of starting with simpler objectives in trading rather than aiming for big moves right away. By focusing on smaller setups, traders can build confidence and develop a faster learning curve.

Importance of Starting Small

  • Aim for one setup per week instead of chasing big moves.
  • Aspiring to achieve 500 pips per month as a swing trader is commendable but start with easier objectives.
  • Don't try to mimic the speaker's style; focus on following the recommended strategies to become a better trader faster.
  • Following a humble beginning and mastering simpler models can lead to success without needing more complex strategies.

Understanding the Model and Targets

The speaker explains a simple and efficient trading model that focuses on working within defined dealing ranges. They discuss targets for bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of understanding previous price data.

Working Within Defined Dealing Range

  • For bullish scenarios, target previous day's highs until reaching the highest high in the last 20 days. Beyond that, refer to the 40-day range.
  • For bearish scenarios, target previous day's lows as objectives for price sweeping.
  • Look for 10, 20, and 30 pip grade sweeps when reaching previous day's highs.
  • The example shows a current level at 6803 with a high at 6823, providing an opportunity for a 20 pip move.

Mastering the Model

The speaker emphasizes that every trader should be able to master this model. They encourage traders to practice using this model consistently and analyze their charts regularly to identify setups.

Practicing with the Model

  • Traders have a full year to practice and look for setups using this model.
  • The weekly range is generally bullish or bearish, even if it closes mixed near the opening.
  • Analyzing previous price data helps cultivate confidence and reminds traders of their winning method.
  • Engaging with price and acquiring experience through studying past data is crucial for building confidence.

Building Confidence and Experience

The speaker emphasizes that everything traders do at present is building their confidence and experience. They encourage traders to engage with price, follow the model, and continue learning other trading models at their own pace.

Building Confidence and Experience

  • Engaging with price and following the model builds confidence.
  • Acquiring experience by studying past data with insights from this model helps identify setups consistently.
  • Traders should have the discipline to follow the model, capture setups, and continue learning other trading models.

Understanding Price Action Patterns

The speaker discusses how understanding underlying price action patterns can enhance trading decisions. They provide examples of identifying buy/sell opportunities based on breakers and previous day's highs/lows.

Identifying Buy/Sell Opportunities

  • Look for instances where price breaks previous lows/highs in a discount/premium scenario.
  • When a low is violated in a discount scenario, followed by clearing the high, buying opportunities arise when price trades back down into it.
  • Similarly, selling opportunities arise when previous day's lows are breached after breaking previous highs.

Trading Breaker to Breaker

The speaker highlights that trading breaker to breaker can be an effective strategy. They encourage traders to watch the video multiple times if they don't immediately grasp this concept.

Trading Breaker to Breaker

  • Trading breaker to breaker can be a winning strategy.
  • Understanding the Central Bank dealers' range is also important.
  • Traders should watch the video multiple times to fully grasp this concept.

The transcript provided does not include any timestamps beyond 0:40:55.

New Section

The speaker discusses short selling, market structure, and how traders interpret resistance and support levels.

Short Selling and Market Structure

  • Short selling neutralizes cell stops and longs price runs.
  • When the price runs back through breaks in market structure, traders see it as resistance.
  • Traders observe how to sell when the price holds around resistance levels.
  • Breaking old highs indicates that support is broken, leading to a bearish sentiment.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes that the movement discussed is applicable to various markets such as crypto, bonds, and futures index trading.

Applicability of Price Movement

  • The principles discussed are repeatable in every high-energy price move.
  • The concepts apply to different markets like crypto, bonds, and futures index trading.

New Section

The speaker encourages listeners to review the study material thoroughly. They emphasize that applying the concepts taught can be effective across different time frames for swing trading, position trading, short-term trading, day trading, or scalping.

Applying Concepts Across Time Frames

  • Listeners are encouraged to revisit the study material for a comprehensive understanding.
  • The concepts taught can be applied to various time frames for different types of trades.
  • Swing trading, position trading, short-term trading, day trading, or scalping can all benefit from these principles.

New Section

Although the model presented focuses on scalping techniques, the speaker also teaches how to leave a portion of the original position as a leader. This allows traders to capture larger daily or weekly ranges and potentially make more profit than on smaller partial positions.

Leaving a Leader Position

  • The model primarily focuses on scalping but includes teaching how to leave a leader position.
  • Leaving a partial portion of the original position allows traders to capture the full daily or weekly range.
  • Making more profit on the leader position can compensate for any mistakes and smooth out equity bumps caused by drawdown.

New Section

The speaker concludes by expressing hope that listeners found the insights insightful. They mention returning to discuss Price Action Model Number One in future sessions.

Conclusion

  • The speaker hopes that listeners found the information provided insightful.
  • Future sessions will cover Price Action Model Number One.

Timestamps are approximate and may not align exactly with the given transcript.

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