Blue Ocean Event : Game Over?

Introduction

The Arctic sea ice is a crucial component of the planet's climate, and its reduction has been a topic of concern for many years.

• The Arctic plays a pivotal role in controlling the planet's climate due to the enormous ice sheet on top of Greenland and the vast body of sea ice that ebbs and flows in the Arctic Ocean.

Accuracy of Measurement

There is a constant debate about the accuracy of measurement up in the Arctic.

• Single year anomalies in the data set get disputed as does the accuracy and calibration of different measuring instrumentation.

• Margins of error in climate modeling and value differences in calculating techniques from one monitoring agency to another are also debated.

Trend Line Towards Zero

Every reputable Arctic sea ice dataset graph shows an inexorable trajectory downwards towards zero.

• Regardless of which organization or data set you choose to use, every single graph shows a trend line towards zero.

• "Zero" means an extent of ice that's less than 1 million square kilometers.

• There's no suggestion that this will be a year-round phenomenon at least not in the short term anyway.

Blue Ocean Event

A blue ocean event refers to when there is less than 1 million square kilometers of ice left in the Arctic.

• It is likely that once we've had a blue ocean event, we'll continue to get them every year thereafter.

• There have been various predictions about when this might happen, ranging from 2017 to sometime between 2024 and 2050.

Predictions About Blue Ocean Event

Attempts to predict when a blue ocean event will occur may distract us from more important questions.

• There is an understandable human curiosity that drives the climate science community to try to make predictions about when that zero mark might actually be reached.

• However, attempting to put our finger on when in the next 80 years this blue ocean event is likely to descend upon us is perhaps distracting us all from the real question which is what will happen after a blue ocean event and what can we do now to mitigate the worst effects.

Potential Outcomes of an Ice-Free Arctic

An ice-free Arctic could have significant consequences for both its local environment and the wider global climate.

• Latent heat: As long as there's ice in a body of water, any surrounding heat energy is carried towards the ice to try and make it melt. The energy needed to make it change state or phase from solid ice to liquid water (latent heat) means that once all the ice has melted, more heat will be absorbed by the water instead of being used up in melting ice.

• Albedo effect: The white surface of sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, but darker open water absorbs more sunlight, leading to further warming.

• Methane release: Permafrost contains large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. As permafrost thaws, methane could be released into the atmosphere, causing further warming.

• Ocean currents: Changes in sea ice cover could affect ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which plays a crucial role in regulating Europe's climate.

Conclusion

Rather than focusing on predicting when a blue ocean event will occur, we should focus on mitigating its potential effects.

• We need to consider how we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

• We also need to prepare for potential changes in weather patterns and rising sea levels.

Consequences of a Blue Ocean Event

In this section, the speaker discusses the consequences of a blue ocean event, which is when there is no ice in the Arctic Ocean during summer.

Absorption of Heat by Water

• Darker surfaces absorb more heat than lighter surfaces.

• When ice disappears from the top of a dark blue ocean, energy that was previously being reflected back by the ice will now be absorbed by the water.

Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet

• The rapid warming of a continent-sized body of water right next to the landmass means that ambient air in the region will also be getting warmed up.

• Warmer air will be pulled inland and across the surface of Greenland and it's this that will contribute to accelerating melting of the ice sheet.

Increase in Water Vapor

• For every one degree Celsius of warming our atmosphere can hold about seven percent more moisture.

• More water vapor in skies directly above Arctic coupled with warmer atmosphere also means a huge increase in energy and material to whip up storms, hurricanes, cyclones, and extreme flooding all over the world.

Sea-Level Rise

• As water gets warmer it expands and as Greenland ice sheet melts at an ever-increasing rate that melting ice will flow down into sea resulting in rising sea levels not just in Arctic but all around globe.

• After a blue ocean event we'll stop talking in tenths of millimeters per year and start talking in tens of centimeters per decade or so.

Severe Jet Stream Disruption

• A blue ocean event will significantly accelerate the phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.

• The Arctic was already warmed by nearly two degrees Celsius.

The Consequences of a Blue Ocean Event

This section discusses the consequences of a blue ocean event, which is when the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer months.

Meandering Jet Stream and Warm Equatorial Air

• A meandering jet stream can drag colder arctic air down to lower latitudes for prolonged periods of time, causing severe cold snaps in North America and Europe.

• Conversely, it can also drag warm equatorial air much farther north into the Arctic Circle, resulting in high temperatures like +11 degrees Celsius at the North Pole in September.

Methane Release

• Thawing offshore permafrost releases methane from a 50 Gigaton reservoir stored in hydrates on the Siberian Arctic shelf.

• Even if only 8% of this methane was released, it would still add about 0.6 degrees Celsius to global temperatures.

• Rapidly rising temperatures will have a devastating effect on food growing regions worldwide.

Global Food Crisis

• Abrupt global warming will make agriculture practically impossible in vital food-growing regions.

• More than 50% of all human calories come from just three plants (rice, maize, and wheat), which are sourced from areas that will be massively affected by climate change and global warming.

Climate Refugee Crisis

• Mass movement could occur as regions no longer have water and agricultural resources needed to support life.

Regional and Global Conflict

• It is possible that global climate challenges could trigger mass movement particularly in regions which no longer have the water and agricultural resources needed to support life.

• This could lead to regional and global conflict.

The Earth's Self-Regulatory Systems

In this section, the speaker explains that the Earth's self-regulatory systems have always recalibrated themselves over long periods of time to get back to equilibrium. However, for the last 11,000 years since the dawn of human civilization, we've been able to arrange our entire societal infrastructure around a remarkably stable and predictable climate.

Stable Climate

• For 11,000 years since the dawn of human civilization, we've had a remarkably stable and predictable climate.

• Governments are aware of what lies ahead but are not taking radical actions necessary partly in fear of fossil fuel money that controls modern political landscape and partly in fear of inducing panic and unrest amongst their populations.

Taking Action

• Individuals can get involved with groups like 350.org and Extinction Rebellion or hassle elected representatives to take radical action.

• On a practical level, individuals can take their money away from those doing harm by changing energy supply to green energy supplier or getting solar panels on their roof.

• If you live in an apartment block, get together with other residents and sort out a communal system. Change your bank, life insurance or pension provider if they haven't divested all funds away from fossil fuels.

• Get rid of your internal combustion engine car and walk or cycle wherever possible. If you need a car for mobility reasons or have five kids then make sure it's an electric vehicle.

• Change your diet to minimize meat consumption especially beef as it is 30 times more impactful on the environment than plant protein. Ideally move towards a plant-based diet altogether.

Personal Choice

• Each of us has a personal choice to make about how we respond to this climate crisis.

• Positive actions can be taken by individuals and groups.