市場血流成河，泡沫要爆了？一切都結束了？

What’s Happening in the Market?

Overview of Current Market Conditions

• Cherry introduces the topic, expressing concern about market conditions and stating that everything seems to be collapsing.

• She clarifies that not everything is in disarray, noting a stable increase in the U.S. poverty index.

• Discusses SCHD, a high-dividend ETF in the U.S., which continues to perform well.

Cryptocurrency and Stock Performance

• Bitcoin has seen a significant drop from $120,000 to $60,000 over four months; it previously fell from $4,800 to $1,800.

• This represents a 63% decline for Bitcoin.

• Pantir's stock dropped from $200 to $130 (35% decrease), while NVIDIA experienced only minor losses.

Tesla and Other Stocks

• Tesla's stock decreased from $480 to $309, which Cherry considers relatively small at 20%.

• Other stocks like Oracle have suffered more severe declines (from $308 to $133).

Implications of Kevin Warsh's Appointment

Transition in Federal Reserve Leadership

• Discussion centers on Kevin Warsh being appointed as the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, set to replace Powell on May 15th.

• Warsh is characterized as "hawkish," favoring low inflation and high interest rates compared to "dovish" policies aimed at stimulating economic growth.

Market Reactions and Expectations

• The market anticipated a dovish appointment but reacted negatively due to Warsh's hawkish history.

• Risk-on assets like AI stocks and cryptocurrencies are expected to suffer under tighter monetary policy.

Current Economic Indicators

Bond Yields and Their Impact

• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen back up around 4.17%, indicating potential challenges for tech stocks and high-risk investments.

Uncertainty Leading to Volatility

• The uncertainty surrounding Warsh’s influence contributes significantly to recent market volatility.

Cherry’s Perspective on Investment Strategy

Strategic Considerations for Investors

• Cherry believes Trump's choice of Warsh was strategic; he aims for someone who understands future technological trends without immediately lowering interest rates drastically.

Long-term Outlook on Technology Investments

• Emphasizes that current market fluctuations should not solely be blamed on Trump’s policies but also reflect broader fears regarding an AI bubble bursting.

AI Bubble Concerns

Traditional Software Companies vs. AI Innovations

• Companies like Adobe and Salesforce face declining stock prices due partly to fears that AI innovations will disrupt their traditional business models.

Market Sentiment Towards SaaS Models

• There is growing apprehension about whether traditional software companies can maintain their competitive edge against emerging AI technologies.

Future Predictions and Investment Advice

Navigating Market Volatility

• Cherry stresses the importance of risk management in investment strategies during volatile periods.

• She suggests maintaining healthy cash reserves allows investors opportunities for dollar-cost averaging during downturn phases.

Investment Strategies and Market Insights

Long-term Investment Approach

• The speaker emphasizes a long-term investment strategy, suggesting that the overall market will continue to reach new highs.

• They advocate for ignoring short-term market noise while focusing on consistent investment practices.

• A specific portfolio from Steven Kress's team is mentioned, highlighting their top 10 stock picks for 2026 based on quantitative analysis from Seeking Alpha.

• The speaker expresses interest in testing this portfolio, noting previous successful backtests of Alpha Picks.

• Encouragement is given to viewers interested in learning about stock analysis methods used by Wall Street teams.

Promotional Offers and Engagement

• A promotional offer is introduced for a subscription service related to the Spring Festival, providing an $850 premium subscription with an additional 7-day free trial.

• Viewers are informed that refunds are available if they are unsatisfied after the trial period.

• The speaker highlights that this exclusive offer can only be accessed through their personal link, not available on the official website.

• An invitation is extended for viewers to share their thoughts on AI bubbles in the comments section of the video.

• The speaker encourages following their Instagram for updates on trading activities and decisions.