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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - PM Trend
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - PM Trend

Introduction and PM Trend Overview

In this section, the speaker introduces himself and provides a disclaimer. He then discusses the PM trend, which is the afternoon session in North America between 1 pm and 4 pm New York time.

PM Trend Overview

  • The PM trend is a price swing that typically occurs between 1 pm and 4 pm New York time.
  • The true day high or low tends to form between the hours of 3 pm and 4 pm New York time.
  • Measured moves in the afternoon tend to be faster than those seen in the AM session.
  • Typically, the move begins around 2 pm New York time but can start as early as 1 pm.

Examples of PM Trend

In this section, the speaker provides examples of how the PM trend works.

Example One

  • During the PM trend of this particular day in e-mini S&P, price drops down into an order block formed during the AM session before rallying away from it up to high of day seen in last trading hour going into close.

Example Two

  • Another example shows relationship between PM trend and what is seen in AM session with price trading down into bullish order block seen earlier before rallying away from it up into rejection block. Price moved almost 400 points during afternoon session.

Example Three

  • In another example with S&P e-mini, there's an accumulation phase that takes place after a large raid candle violates previous sessions' rejection block at beginning of PM session. Price rallies about 18 handles.

Afternoon Session Reversal

In this section, the speaker discusses the reversal that occurred during the afternoon session.

Afternoon Session Reversal

  • The afternoon session created a reversal.
  • The NASDAQ e-mini futures were analyzed during the same time frame as in the morning session.
  • The market traded down into an order block that was formed during the lunch hour.
  • A bullish Order Box sent price higher up into a rejection block that was seen forming in the morning session. About nine full handles were traded up going into the close of a nice PM session tree.

Relative Highs and Lows Between Noon and 3 PM New York Time

In this section, the speaker discusses how to analyze relative highs and lows between noon and 3 PM New York time.

Analyzing Relative Highs and Lows

  • All three indices are compared for their respective lows or highs between noon and 3 PM New York time.
  • When institutional order flow is bullish, we look at comparably low indices where one index fails to confirm a lower low; this is deemed bullish.
  • Conversely, when institutional overflow is bearish, we compare relative highs where one index fails to confirm higher highs; this is deemed bearish.

Divergence Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses divergence analysis.

Divergence Analysis

  • The e-mini S&P in the PM session on this particular day during the afternoon session saw a higher low form, and the Dow futures showed a higher low as well.
  • However, the NASDAQ made a lower low, which was unexpected.
  • There was an accumulation in the Dow and in the S&P not seen in the NASDAQ.
  • By looking at that divergence, we can see that there's strong accumulation in the E-mini S&P and in Dow.

Last Hour of Trading Day

In this section, the speaker discusses how to analyze trading activity during the last hour of equities trading.

Last Hour of Trading Day

  • The last hour of equities trading generally creates the opposite end of the range. If we see a low form in the morning session and it's been a really strong update and during lunch we've seen no retracement, then if PM session starts to indicate they want to go higher too, any trade that we trade in same direction from AM session will continue going into that.
  • Generally speaking, opening range or first-hour trading creates higher lows for day trading; conversely, last hour of trading day generally creates opposite end of range.

Understanding High and Low of the Day

In this section, we will learn about how the high and low of the day are formed during trading hours.

Formation of High and Low of the Day

  • The high of the day is usually created during the first hour of trading.
  • If it's going to be a down close day, then most likely, it will continue to go lower until the bond market closes.
  • Shortly after 3 o'clock, you'll see the low that they form.
  • The market goes into close at 4 pm.

Picking Targets for Trading Sessions

In this section, we will learn about how to pick targets for different trading sessions.

Understanding Trading Sessions

  • It's important to understand what session you're going to be trading in before picking targets.
  • Once you know which session you're trading in, you can start picking targets.

Conclusion

  • By understanding how highs and lows are formed during trading hours and by knowing which session you're trading in, you can better pick your targets for successful trades.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 10
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in June 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.