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ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review & When Wrong Is Still "Right"
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review & When Wrong Is Still "Right"

Introduction

The speaker introduces himself and mentions a trade example he shared on Twitter. He briefly discusses the dollar index and his opinion on the market.

Speaker's Opinion on the Market

  • The speaker shares his opinion on the market, stating that he has a bullish bias for the dollar and a bearish bias for Euro.
  • He emphasizes that he is not interested in trading Forex but wants to share his opinion with viewers.
  • The speaker admits that he was hoping for something contrary to happen in the market to set a precedence going forward that being right sometimes can still be profitable.

Dollar Index Weekly Chart

The speaker discusses the weekly chart of the dollar index and how it affects his stance on trading Forex.

Speaker's Stance on Trading Forex

  • The speaker states that unless they take out that low and trade into this inefficiency one more time, he will hold onto a bullish bias for a dollar and bearish bias for Euro.
  • He mentions not picking tops and bottoms on higher time frame charts.
  • The speaker explains how he outlines something from an opinionated position while admitting upfront that he wasn't going to do anything with the information regardless.

Daily Chart Breaker

The speaker talks about daily chart breaker, weekly mean threshold of bearish order block, daily order block opening price, lots of work done at those levels, ultimately traded down there.

Daily Chart Breaker

  • The speaker explains how they have high low higher high down close canes with lowest close.
  • He emphasizes using lowest close instead of other options.
  • The volume narrative storyline is inside bodies; Wicks do damage so you take range expand it to right which would be your breaker.
  • Speaker calls this weekly breaker but zeroing in on daily chart to get inside of what this would be over the course of more than one week.
  • He mentions that he took the screenshot on Thursday, so it represents Thursday and partial Friday's action.

Neutral Stance

The speaker talks about his neutral stance and how he is not interested in taking any trades.

Speaker's Neutral Stance

  • The speaker reiterates his neutral stance and how he made a clear statement that he is not taking new trades.
  • He emphasizes that being profitable when you're wrong is possible, and he will teach that as he goes through this.
  • The speaker tries to settle expectations down for viewers who are always looking for the next magic trick.

English Staying Bullish on Dollar, Bearish on Euro

In this section, the speaker discusses their outlook for the dollar and euro based on recent market movements.

Dollar Index Analysis

  • The speaker is bullish on the dollar as long as it stays above a certain low.
  • If the dollar trades down to a certain level, it could potentially shift the speaker's outlook to bearish.
  • The speaker predicts that the market will use a certain inefficiency as an area of resistance and look for a lower daily relative equal low where sell side would be residing.

Euro Analysis

  • The speaker is waiting for more information before making any trades in Forex.
  • The euro has not manifested itself in higher dollar yet.
  • The speaker is reserving their verdict on what this is going to do until they see how Monday's trading goes.

Trading Mechanics

  • There's nothing wrong with having an expectation and analysis before sitting down to trade.
  • It's important to wait for more information before making any trades.

Understanding Trading Setups

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of waiting for a trading setup to manifest itself before taking action. He emphasizes that there is no reason to be upset or point fingers if the market does not present the conditions for a short trade.

Importance of Waiting for a Setup

  • It is important to wait for a trading setup to manifest itself before taking action.
  • The expectation with time needs to be present in price action.
  • If there is no setup, there is no reason to be upset or point fingers.

Skeptics and Flexibility

  • Skeptics may point fingers and say that ICT got it wrong.
  • Flexibility as an analyst is key because sometimes the market will do things you don't anticipate.
  • Relying on price action instead of indicators or black box ideas reduces the likelihood of being victimized by randomness.

No Losing Trade

  • There was no losing trade because there was no setup that failed or manifested itself.
  • Even though there was no opportunity to pursue and participate in, there was also no loss incurred.

Understanding Price Movement

In this section, the speaker discusses how to navigate price movement and why it's important to adapt to changing market conditions.

Navigating Price Movement

  • There's no reason to be upset or point fingers when a trade doesn't work out. It just means you're learning how to navigate price movement.
  • Traders need to adapt to changing market conditions and not rely on specific setups.
  • The speaker shows an example of a fair value gap on a 15-minute timeframe and explains how the market trades back down until it reaches the fair value cabin itself.

Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the e-mini S&P and NASDAQ markets.

E-mini S&P Analysis

  • The speaker identifies a Judas swing on the London open Killzone as a potential trade opportunity.
  • The old high on the hourly chart is identified as a level that the market will want to quickly get to some level of liquidity or inefficiency.
  • The weekly chart shows that we traded higher on that Weekly Gap and buy side resides here with volume balance outside of it.

Hourly Chart Analysis

  • The speaker takes us through an hourly chart analysis where he identifies a Wick midpoint as a potential entry point for traders who believe that the market will go higher.
  • He also mentions that smooth edges like to be made jagged, which means that areas of consolidation will eventually break out into more volatile moves.

Wick Analysis and Silver Bullet Trade Execution

In this section, the speaker discusses his analysis of the market and execution of a trade. He emphasizes the importance of taking partial profits and using liquidity and trade management to find consistency.

Market Analysis

  • The speaker's analysis suggests that the market could go down before running higher to take out the buy side.
  • The speaker does not allow comments on YouTube due to people advertising crypto stuff, but he provides analysis based on 30 years of experience and authorship in these concepts.
  • A drop in price will engage the spread, leading to a short-term high taken followed by a drop back down. Institutional overflow entry drill into this bison efficiency rallies fall short of this high in this high any retracement here is just going to set up a run to take out the buy side any drop here is going to further increase the likelihood that retail Traders are going to see that as strong resistance so they will want to go short here if they haven't already went short there where they're going to place their stop loss where they believe it's protected in fortify behind this real strong quote-unquote resistance well you saw how that worked ripped right on throughout like it's nothing.

Silver Bullet Trade Execution

  • The speaker executes a Silver Bullet trade for Thursday's trading with a level at 42.90 and a half in mind.
  • The speaker waits for a short-term high to form before using pyramiding high low or low strategy when approaching targets.
  • Taking partial profits always pays off according to the speaker, who teaches traders how to find consistency through liquidity and trade management.
  • The speaker encourages traders to avoid entering trades with a fixed mindset and instead learn a graduated understanding of liquidity and trade management.
  • The speaker uses a two-minute chart to balance his trade execution, taking five contracts off above the high at 42.88.
  • The speaker picks the 42.90 level because it's in order flow and close proximity to the actual swing high on the hourly chart where a buy side would reside.
  • Ultimately, the trade hits the stop loss at 42.90 as expected.

Timestamps are approximate and may not be exact due to differences in video versions or edits.

Aspiring to High-Level Trading

In this section, the speaker encourages traders to aspire to high-level trading and instills a sense of profitability as the ultimate goal.

Trading at High Levels

  • The speaker encourages traders to aspire to high-level trading.
  • Profitability is the ultimate goal.
  • With enough time and equity, this type of trade would be rather easy to put on.
  • Traders don't need to trade many contracts; even one contract can be profitable.

Encouragement and Goodbye

In this section, the speaker concludes by encouraging traders to think positively about their trades and wishes them a pleasant weekend.

Positive Thinking

  • The speaker encourages traders to think positively about their trades.
  • Even small trades can be profitable and better than a day job.

Conclusion

  • The speaker wishes traders a pleasant and safe weekend.
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.