Weekly Update: Home on the Range
Midweek Market Update
Overview: This video provides an overview of the midweek market update, including a discussion of rates, trueflation, pce, and regulatory issues.
Rates Discussion
- The FED has raised rates 25 basis points last week, despite needing to add nearly 400 billion in liquidity back onto its balance sheet.
- The market is currently pricing in the FED being completely done with hikes and holding until mid-year.
- The trend is that rates go up every meeting until the FED says otherwise.
Trueflation
- Trueflation is a measure of real time inflation in the U.S., and is currently far below CPI.
- The biggest reason for this is the way BLS reports housing data, which is lagging 6-9 months.
- A sub four handle print would hint at the FED holding or starting to cut rather than continuing to raise.
PCE
- PCE is the FED's preferred inflation metric, and will be reported on Friday.
- It was slightly hot on the last print, but there is no meeting in April so we won't know until closer to the meeting.
Regulatory Issues
- The SEC and CFTC are having a turf war, targeting individuals, exchanges, and stable coins.
- Coinbase has received a Wells Notice from the SEC, indicating an intent to sue.
- Binance is being targeted by the CFTC for willful evasion of compliance.
Crypto Banking Ecosystem
Overview: This section discusses the current state of the crypto banking ecosystem, including the impact of losing two major banks, the rise of Tether, and the repayment of a Silver Gate loan by Microstrategy.
Google Trends
- Google Trends is a measure of search history over time as measured by Google. It has aligned with price quite well and is showing signs of increasing interest in the retail sector.
On-Chain Activity
- Transactions, mining activities, and active addresses have all increased since the beginning of the year.
- Market cap against the average price of all coins that have moved on chain is an indication of unrealized versus realized price.
- Hashrate has exploded on a linear scale, but looks normal on a logarithmic scale.
- The increase in hashrate is spread out amongst most of the big mining pools, indicating that it is not concentrated in one entity.
BTC Technical Analysis
Overview: This section provides an overview of the technical analysis of Bitcoin, including a discussion of the inverted Head and Shoulders chart pattern, the megaphone pattern, and the diamond top pattern.
Bull Market Situation
- Miners are in a more profitable position year-over-year.
- Above the daily Cloud, 200 week moving average, 200 day moving average, and the range from July 2022 at 25k.
- Inverted Head and Shoulders chart pattern with a target measured zone between 31 and 34.
Megaphone Pattern
- Holding a megaphone pattern with a neutral bias.
- Until the pattern breaks out to the upside, it carries a bullish bias.
Diamond Top Pattern
- Working on a diamond top pattern with a bearish bias.
- Dwindling volume as the pattern nears completion.
Staking Unlock
- Staking unlock coming April 12th with two different protocol upgrades.
- Estimations of 30, 60, or 90 days of withdrawals.
- 17-18 million eth deposited in the staking contract.
- Kraken eth must be unlocked due to SEC lawsuit.
- Coinbase being targeted with Wells notice.
Market Overview
Overview: This section provides an overview of the current market conditions, including the 200-day moving average, the range high, and the ETH/BTC cross pair.
ETH/BTC Cross Pair
- Above the 200-day moving average and within the range for 300 days
- Bullish bias on the range with a price target of 24-27
- ETH unlock available April 12th, but will take 3 months or more to unlock
Legacy Charts
- DXY has pulled back over the past three weeks
- Gold quietly back to all-time high levels
- S&P 500 has been range bound for the past month and a half
Disclaimer
- This video is for informational purposes only and the opinions expressed are not Financial or investment advice.