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ICT Silver Bullet Strategy - No Daily Bias | With Backtest!
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ICT Silver Bullet Strategy - No Daily Bias | With Backtest!

Understanding the Silver Bullet Trading Strategy

Overview of the Silver Bullet Strategy

  • The video focuses on the "Silver Bullet" trading strategy, specifically during the AM session using NQ as the ticker.
  • The presenter emphasizes that entries will only be taken between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., marking this time frame as critical for trading decisions.

Framework for Trading Decisions

  • The strategy utilizes the previous hour's high and low (from the 9:00 a.m. candle) to identify potential reversals in price action.
  • Traders should mark off these highs and lows at 10:00 a.m. and look for price movements that breach either side of this range to determine entry points.

Practical Application with Examples

  • After marking the high and low of the 9:00 a.m. hourly candle, traders should switch to a one-minute timeframe to observe price action closely.
  • A stop raid is identified when price moves below or above marked levels, indicating potential entry opportunities based on subsequent price behavior.

Backtesting with FX Replay

  • The presenter transitions into backtesting using FX replay, setting up parameters for testing the Silver Bullet strategy over July with an initial balance of $100,000.
  • During backtesting, traders are instructed to monitor both one-hour and one-minute charts while looking for reversals or breakouts around key levels established earlier.

Key Insights from Backtesting Sessions

  • Successful trades involve identifying breaker blocks after significant sweeps in price; entries must occur before 11:00 a.m. to align with strategy rules.

Trading Strategy Insights and Analysis

Analyzing Candle Patterns and Market Movements

  • The speaker discusses the importance of identifying key candle patterns, specifically marking the 9:00 a.m. candle and analyzing its impact on market movements.
  • A focus is placed on aggressive displacement in price action, with an entry strategy based on a specific up-close candle to target a low for potential profit.
  • The analysis continues with observations about price sweeps and structural breaks, emphasizing the need for clear displacement before entering trades.
  • The speaker notes that equal highs do not constitute a sweep; instead, they look for more definitive price actions to confirm entries.
  • A new trading session begins with marked high and low points from the 9:00 a.m. candle, indicating ongoing evaluation of market conditions.

Evaluating Trade Entries and Outcomes

  • The absence of significant movement during the 11:00 a.m. window leads to further analysis of subsequent days' trading opportunities.
  • Observations are made regarding down-close candles supporting higher prices, suggesting potential entry points based on fair value gaps.
  • A missed entry opportunity is discussed where desired conditions were not met; this highlights the importance of strict adherence to entry criteria.
  • The speaker evaluates risk-reward ratios when considering trade entries based on observed market behavior, aiming for favorable outcomes.
  • Losses are acknowledged as part of trading; however, each loss provides learning opportunities for refining strategies.

Continuous Market Assessment

  • As new days unfold in trading sessions, consistent evaluations are made regarding price sweeps and their implications for future trades.
  • Skepticism towards certain price actions is expressed; clarity in displacement is crucial before making any trade decisions.
  • Further discussions revolve around identifying aggressive displacements or retracements that could signal potential entries or exits from positions.
  • Emphasis is placed on lower time frame analyses to identify better entry models rather than relying solely on higher time frames which may lack clarity.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Initial Market Movements

  • The market shows aggressive downward movement, indicating volatility. The speaker considers entering based on an order block but feels they may have missed the opportunity.
  • Observations of market structure reveal no upward movement yet; the speaker expresses hesitation due to aggressive displacement and consolidation patterns.

Analyzing Price Levels

  • A close below a certain price level is noted, though it lacks conviction for a trade entry. The speaker prefers entries when prices are moving down rather than retracing back up.
  • On the fourth day, the speaker marks out high and low points, preparing for potential trades while noting that previous highs have been reached.

Trade Execution Attempts

  • During the 7th session, after marking key levels, there’s uncertainty about price returning to range; thus, no action is taken.
  • A long position is attempted but results in a stop-out as market conditions do not favor the trade.

Displacement and Fair Value Gaps

  • The analysis continues with observations of lower time frame sweeps; however, there’s no significant displacement upwards.
  • A fair value gap is identified with plans to project risk-reward ratios (RR), aiming for a three R move before adjusting stops to break even.

Day-by-Day Market Review

  • On the 14th day, another sweep occurs with attempts at entries based on breaker structures but results in stop-outs again.
  • The speaker notes aggressive downward movements without clear support or resistance levels leading to cautious trading decisions.

Final Days of Trading Insights

  • As trading progresses into mid-month sessions, consolidations are observed without favorable setups for trades.
  • Aggressive displacements prompt consideration of entering trades based on fair value gaps despite mixed signals from price action.

Performance Analytics Overview

  • By analyzing performance metrics over several days, Wednesday emerges as a strong trading day.

Backtesting Trading Performance

Overview of Backtesting Results

  • The average trade duration was 1 hour and 29 minutes, with a total of 15 trades executed over a period of 45 days.
  • The backtesting results for July showed a performance increase of 23.5%, while August's performance so far is at 16.93%, leading to an overall gain of 44.4%.
  • It is noted that the testing was limited to just 45 days and only included 15 trades, indicating that further analysis could yield more comprehensive insights.
  • A deeper backtest is suggested for better understanding of trading performance over time, highlighting the importance of extensive data in evaluating strategies.
Video description

Based of ICT's Silver Bullet video, I discuss a framework for the Silver bullet and backtest it over the month of July and half of August for NQ. I have not had the chance to backtest over a longer period of time or adjust the framework for different time periods. I have not yet experimented with different profit taking strategies. I have not yet looked into this on Forex. 📈Access to my course and mentorship! https://themarketlens.com/ 🚀 Get access to my custom indicator : https://ttradesmodel.com/ 📊20% off Journaling & Backtesting Software! Use code TTRADES ! https://tinyurl.com/TradezellaTTrades 👉Find the best prop firm deals here : https://selectpropfirm.com/ _50k Starter accounts at MyFundedFutures are now only $76 with no activation fee!! Use code SELECT https://myfundedfutures.com/?ref=4894_ _80% off with Apex! Use Code SELECT https://apextraderfunding.com/member/aff/go/selectpropfirm_ _Straight to funded accounts use code: SELECT https://tradeify.co/ref/SELECT/_ _10% off Funded Next! No monthly fees! Use code : SELECT https://fundednext.com/?fpr=select-prop31_ 🕐Multi asset investing + earn rebates on stock/etf options contracts: http://bit.ly/44IHvXn Join my Free Telegram! https://t.me/learnfromttrades Join my Free Discord! https://discord.gg/ttrades-community-1121090664453652593 All other Links : http://ttradesedu.com/ On some of the links above, I may earn a commission if you click and make a purchase. 0:00 Intro 0:29 Silver Bullet Strategy 1:32 Example 1 3:09 Example 2 3:50 Backtesting 27:32 Analytics / Stats 28:43 Outro Indicator: https://www.tradingview.com/script/nW5oGfdO-ICT-Killzones-Pivots-TFO/ ICT 2022 Mentorship: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVgHx4Z63paYiFGQ56PjTF1PGePL3r69s #ict #trading #education #forex #futures #daytrading CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Other fees may apply. See Public Fee Schedule https://public.com/disclosures/fee-schedule Brokerage services are offered by Open to the Public Investing, member FINRA & SIPC. Review Options Rebate Terms https://public.com/disclosures/rebate-terms. Options trading carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please read and understand the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before trading. Learn more at http://public.com/ODD