Comment, pourquoi, la Grande Guerre ? - M. Vaïsse

Introduction and Acknowledgments

Opening Remarks

• The speaker expresses gratitude to the museum team and François Cochet for their trust and initiative in organizing the university event.

• Special mention is made of Florence Caher, who played a crucial role in facilitating the summer university.

Setting the Context

Historical Framework

• The speaker aims to provide a general framework for understanding events leading up to World War I over the next 45 minutes.

• The discussion begins with a reference to January 1, 1914, when British Ambassador S. Berti presented diplomatic wishes, highlighting hopes for peace following Balkan conflicts.

Key Questions Addressed

Exploring Causes of War

• Three pivotal questions are posed:

• Why did a century of peace lead to the Great War?

• Was World War I inevitable?

• How did the July Crisis of 1914 trigger a war logic?

The Nature of Peace and Conflict

Contrasting Centuries

• The speaker notes that while the 20th century is marked by various forms of conflict (world wars, colonial wars), the 19th century was perceived as peaceful.

• However, this perception is challenged by historical realities; significant conflicts occurred during this period that set precedents for future wars.

Historical Perspectives on Warfare

Misconceptions about Peace

• The notion of "a hundred years' peace" from 1815 to 1914 is critiqued; initiatives aimed at maintaining stability often suppressed underlying tensions.

• Historian Jules Michelet's perspective highlights that despite appearances, the 19th century was fraught with violence and revolutions.

Nationalism and Territorial Disputes

Prelude to Global Conflict

• Nationalistic movements in Europe during the late 19th century contributed significantly to tensions leading up to WWI.

• Specific territorial disputes arising from unification efforts in Italy and Germany are identified as critical factors influencing later conflicts.

Cultural Reflections on National Identity

Influence of Literature and Music

• Cultural expressions such as songs reflect deep-seated national sentiments regarding territorial claims (e.g., "La garde rein").

• Historical poems like "Strasbourg" illustrate how cultural narratives shaped public perceptions around national identity and territorial integrity.

Revanche et Nationalisme

L'expression du revanchisme

• Le revanchisme est présenté comme une aspiration future, symbolisée par le drapeau tricolore flottant sur des murs exilés.

• Le poème "Le clairon" de Paul des Roulet (1875) illustre cette idée, ayant connu un grand succès avec plus de 100,000 exemplaires vendus.

Contexte historique et tragédie

• Dans "Le clairon", l'ennemi prussien est clairement désigné, créant une scène tragique qui se termine par la mort du clairon.

• Les mouvements nationaux ont conduit à la formation d'États comme l'Allemagne et l'Italie, tandis que d'autres régions, notamment en Europe centrale et dans les Balkans, ont rencontré des difficultés.

Effondrement des empires

• La fin du 19e siècle voit l'effondrement de grands empires tels que l'Empire ottoman, qui avait atteint son apogée au 16e siècle.

• Bien que certains pays aient cherché à voir s'effondrer l'Empire ottoman pour établir leur propre pouvoir, cet empire a longtemps été perçu comme une zone de stabilité en Europe.

Réactions face aux mouvements nationalistes

• L'indépendance de la Grèce et la Serbie en 1878 sont des exemples marquants. La Bosnie-Herzégovine reste sous souveraineté théorique ottomane mais administrée par l'Autriche.

• L’Autriche-Hongrie réagit aux mouvements centrifuges en annexant la Bosnie en 1908, exacerbant les tensions régionales.

Guerre et expansion coloniale

• Le 19e siècle est marqué par des guerres non seulement en Europe mais aussi durant une période d'expansion coloniale intense.

• Des conflits entre puissances européennes émergent également dans le contexte colonial, illustré par la crise de Fachod entre France et Grande-Bretagne en 1898.

Vers la Grande Guerre

• Malgré un siècle de paix relatif depuis 1871 (PAX germanica), les tensions accumulées mènent à la Première Guerre mondiale.

• Les causes incluent rivalités nationales croissantes, formation de blocs militaires et course aux armements.

Rivalités nationales

• La rivalité franco-allemande n'est pas nouvelle; elle s'accompagne d'une rivalité anglo-allemande plus complexe due aux liens familiaux entre royautés.

Naval Politics and the Prelude to Conflict

The Threat of German Expansion

• The British perceive a threat from Germany's economic expansion, reminiscent of contemporary concerns regarding China.

• Paul Valéry highlights the overwhelming presence of German products, warning against this dominance.

• Rudyard Kipling expresses fears in a poem that Britain's food supply could be jeopardized by Germany's naval power.

Rising Tensions in Eastern Europe

• The rivalry between Austria and Russia escalates, particularly over Bosnia during the crisis of 1908-1909.

• Germany feels encircled by Russia and France, leading to heightened tensions and perceptions of vulnerability.

Arms Race Leading Up to War

• An arms race intensifies in the years before 1914, with military arrangements proliferating among European powers.

• France and Britain coordinate their naval strategies; France focuses on the Mediterranean while Britain secures the English Channel and Atlantic.

Economic Factors Influencing Conflict

• Financial support from France aids Russian economic expansion, crucial for military mobilization against Germany.

• Increased military personnel in both countries reflects growing war preparations; French conscription laws bolster army numbers.

Nationalism as a Catalyst for War

• Kaiser Wilhelm II declares war as inevitable during a council meeting in December 1912, suggesting an early conflict would favor Germany due to Russia's unpreparedness.

• Nationalist movements across Europe gain momentum; Italy’s futurists advocate for war as a means of rejuvenation.

Economic Rivalries Preceding World War I

• Economic competition heightens among European nations leading up to 1914; fears about Germany's aggressive economic policies grow.

• Questions arise about capitalism's role in fostering imperialistic conflicts; while economic factors contribute to tensions, they are not solely responsible for the impending war.

Causes of War in Europe 1914

Overview of the Pre-War Situation

• The European landscape in 1914 was rife with tensions, and numerous factors contributed to the potential for conflict. However, peace factors were equally significant.

• Historical crises (e.g., 1898, 1905) had previously threatened war but did not escalate due to strong diplomatic efforts.

National Sentiments and Territorial Disputes

• The desire for France to reclaim annexed provinces like Alsace-Lorraine was not a primary cause of war by 1914; public sentiment had shifted towards resignation rather than active claims.

• In Alsace, there was a notable acceptance of identity over territorial disputes, illustrated by local sentiments expressed in songs.

Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Initiatives

• The European diplomatic system effectively managed previous crises through negotiations led by ambassadors and foreign ministers who prioritized peaceful resolutions.

• Notable instances include the crisis at Fachoda where diplomacy prevented escalation into war, highlighting the role of key figures like Del Cassé.

Rise of Pacifism and International Cooperation

• A surge in pacifist initiatives emerged at the turn of the century advocating for conflict resolution through arbitration rather than warfare, coinciding with the establishment of the Nobel Peace Prize.

• There was a widespread belief that globalization would render wars obsolete due to interdependence among nations regarding trade and communication systems.

Social Movements Against War

• During crises such as those involving Morocco or Balkan conflicts, socialists from both France and Germany organized protests against war, emphasizing solidarity among workers across borders.

• These movements reflected a growing conviction among socialists that they could act as guardians of peace against militaristic tendencies within their governments.

The Complex Prelude to World War I

The Nature of War and Diplomacy

• Discussion on the paradox of a dictator who, despite being responsible for numerous atrocities, initiated peace conferences in 1899 and 1907 that laid the groundwork for disarmament and arbitration in the 20th century.

• The significance of the Hague Conferences as foundational events for international relations concerning disarmament and arms control, highlighting early attempts to regulate warfare.

• Exploration of how underlying causes could have prevented World War I, emphasizing that prior diplomatic efforts had successfully averted conflict before 1914.

Key Events Leading to Conflict

• Examination of January 1914 when French President Poincaré dined with German diplomats, indicating a temporary reconciliation between France and Germany amidst rising tensions.

• Inquiry into why war broke out despite signs of peace; it was suggested that an event like the assassination in Sarajevo triggered a series of unfortunate escalations leading to war.

The July Crisis

• Analysis of the timeline from Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination on June 28 to the outbreak of war, noting that there was still time for diplomacy before hostilities began.

• Austria-Hungary's motivations were discussed, particularly their desire to suppress nationalist movements within their empire using Serbia as a pretext for military action.

Escalation Towards War

• Austria-Hungary's ultimatum to Serbia was described as harsh and humiliating. Serbia accepted most points but rejected one regarding Austrian inspectors, which led Vienna to sever diplomatic ties.

• Overview of failed mediation attempts by Britain during late July 1914, which were undermined by Germany’s belief that they had a favorable opportunity for conflict.

Mobilization and Alliances

• Russia's partial mobilization following Austria-Hungary's declaration of war on Serbia marked a critical turning point; this prompted Germany’s acceptance of general warfare.

• Britain's hesitance towards involvement in Austro-Serbian disputes contrasted with its eventual decision to enter the conflict due to fears over German dominance in Europe.

Final Steps Toward Conflict

• British public opinion favored peace; however, concerns about German hegemony ultimately compelled Britain into war just before Belgium’s neutrality was violated.

• Russia’s determination not to abandon Serbia stemmed from historical influences; meanwhile, France viewed its alliance with Russia as vital despite limited interests in Balkan affairs.

The Role of French Leadership in the July Crisis

Overview of the Visit to Russia

• The visit of Point Carré and Viviani to Russia from July 20 to 23 is discussed, highlighting speculation about their intentions and whether there was a conspiracy involved.

• The absence of both leaders during a critical period raises questions about the effectiveness of French leadership amidst escalating tensions.

Context of the Crisis

• The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to peace, even considering military action if necessary, indicating a complex diplomatic stance.

• France advised Russia against full mobilization too late, reflecting a struggle between maintaining alliances and managing crises effectively.

Responsibility for War

• Berla's perspective suggests that Russian mobilization shifted blame onto Saint-Petersburg for the war's outbreak; France failed to curb Russian initiatives adequately.

• No nation explicitly desired war; however, only Britain actively worked to maintain peace. This highlights shared responsibility among nations leading up to WWI.

Escalation into General Conflict

• The transition from localized conflict to general war is identified as a key issue, with military plans playing an essential role in this escalation.

• Public sentiment began shifting towards acceptance of war, influenced by misinformation and growing tensions within Europe.

Socialist Response and Public Sentiment

• In response to rising tensions, socialist leaders convened in Brussels on July 29, showcasing unity among European socialists despite looming conflict.

• Jean Jaurès expressed confidence that conflicts could be resolved peacefully but later faced increasing anxiety as events unfolded rapidly towards war.

Final Days Before War Declaration

• As Paris experienced summer calm mixed with anxiety over Russian mobilization and German decisions, Jaurès wrote editorials advocating for peace before his assassination on July 31.

• His editorial work reflects the urgency felt by many at that time regarding the impending conflict and its implications for society.