Introduction

Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis discusses the current state of the mining sector and why he is bullish on gold and silver miners.

The Tectonic Plates are Moving

• Historic macro technical and fundamental events are underway that should benefit gold, silver, and their miners.

• The events will move quickly far more quickly than we've seen in years, possibly ever.

Mining Sector

Michael Oliver shares his thoughts on the mining sector.

Bullish on Mining

• The tectonic plates are moving in the mining sector.

• Gold and silver miners will be the chief beneficiaries of these events.

• Base metal miners should not be focused on as much as monetary metals.

Monetary Crisis

• Central banks have created a bubble in the US stock market through repeated creation of river flows over a dozen years.

• Inflation is expansion in money units quantity of money units that flow goes somewhere.

Gold as a Hedge Against Inflation

Michael Saylor discusses the value of gold as a hedge against inflation and how it compares to other commodities.

Gold's Historical Performance

• Gold has produced three bull markets in the last 50 years, with each resulting in a seven or eight-fold increase in value.

• Despite doubling since its low in December 2015, gold's current bull market is minor compared to previous ones.

• Current monetary events and institutional errors may lead to an economic collapse that could cause gold prices to rise.

Comparing Gold to Other Commodities

• While some argue that gold is not a good investment due to its lack of yield, others see it as a hedge against inflation.

• During times of economic downturn, such as the current pandemic, gold tends to perform well while other commodities may decline.

• Silver experienced a longer corrective process than expected but is now entering the early phase of a new bull market.

The Shift to Monetary Metals

In this section, the speaker discusses how traditional investment alternatives are no longer viable and how asset managers and investors are looking for new options. He talks about the collapse of orthodox portfolio components and how gold remained unchanged during this time. The speaker believes that a shift towards monetary metals is underway due to a monetary crisis created by central banks.

Asset Class Shift

• Traditional investment alternatives are no longer viable.

• Orthodox portfolio components collapsed last year, but gold remained unchanged.

• A shift towards monetary metals is underway due to a monetary crisis created by central banks.

Historical Precedent for Current Economic Climate

In this section, the speaker talks about the current economic climate and whether there is any historical precedent for it. He argues that there is nothing comparable in history, citing the seven-fold move in the S&P over a dozen years and 16-fold move in NASDAQ during a boom-bust cycle as evidence.

Historical Precedent

• There is nothing comparable in history to the current economic climate.

• The seven-fold move in S&P over a dozen years and 16-fold move in NASDAQ during a boom-bust cycle have no historical precedent.

Rush to Own Traditional Money

In this section, the speaker discusses how people will rush to own traditional money because of its stability. He cites examples from January when bank stocks were performing well until they suddenly weren't, leading to an ambush that nobody expected.

Rush to Own Traditional Money

• People will rush to own traditional money because of its stability.

• Bank stocks were performing well in January until they suddenly weren't, leading to an ambush that nobody expected.

Analysis of the Banking Sector

In this section, the speaker discusses the performance of big banks in relation to the June and October lows. They also talk about how financial-related declines have caught people off guard and caused them to think about alternative investment options.

Big Banks Performance

• The S&P is well above the June and October lows, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo are below the June lows.

• Citicorp is near the June lows and not far from its 2020 lows.

• Rumors about big banks have been circulating, causing people to consider alternative investment options like gold.

• Americans have lagged behind foreigners in terms of friendliness towards gold as an investment option.

Investment Options

• The speaker recommends investing in commodities, mining stocks, physical gold and silver, real estate (specifically farming).

• The commodity explosion was uniform across all sectors of commodities. It made sense for large asset integers to move into stocks related to those commodities.

• Commodities turned up before Ukraine-Russia situation which is in February 2022. There was no correlation between commodities and gold until late 2020 when Bloomberg commodity index started ratcheting up.

Commodities to Watch

In this section, the speaker discusses which commodities are likely to be leaders in the current market upturn.

Focus on Foods

• The speaker believes that instead of energy being the leader on a percent basis, oil and natural gas will lead the last leg up in terms of percent gains.

• The focus should be on foods as they are more likely to be the leader this time around.

• The grains are likely to turn up soon, and when they do, emphasis should be placed on grain-related stocks.

Oil and Gas

• While bullish on oil and gas, the speaker is not as bullish as he is on foods.

• Oil and natural gas have not turned up yet, but if they get back above certain levels, there could be a nice percent gain again.

Fertilizers

• While there may be some movement in fertilizers and farmland-related ETFs, the speaker believes that focusing on directly grain-related stocks will yield better results.

Coffee, Sugar, Grains and Gold Miners

In this section, the speaker talks about how coffee, sugar, and grains tend to behave similarly in the commodity complex. He also discusses how gold miners are often misunderstood and can outperform gold during certain periods.

Coffee, Sugar, and Grains

• Coffee, sugar, and grains tend to look and behave similarly in the commodity complex.

• The speaker assumes that they will be an outperforming component of the commodity complex.

• While these commodities have been pulling back sharply lately, they still have potential for growth.

Gold Miners

• People have certain assumptions about gold miners that are false.

• During a dynamic bull trend in gold, there will be a period where the miners suddenly snap from a low oversold level and just join gold and outpace it for a couple of years.

• There's always a point where they beat gold on a percentage basis.

• Silver is expected to outpace gold big time during another replication of its seven to eight-fold bull market.

Silver's Potential Growth

In this section, the speaker talks about silver's potential growth based on its relationship with gold.

Silver's Relationship with Gold

• If silver went to two and a half or three percent of the price of gold when gold were eight thousand dollars (assuming another routine eightfold global market), then silver could be worth hundreds of dollars.

• On a percentage basis if silver went up to two and a half or three percent of the price of gold okay and gold were eight thousand dollars you do the math okay?

• Silver tends to do well in bull markets even though there may be points where it underperforms.

Silver Explosion Trigger Level

In this section, the speaker talks about the trigger level for a potential silver explosion.

Potential Silver Surge

• The speaker believes that if silver hits around 24.95 to 25, it could trigger a surge in silver prices.

• If silver goes up and reaches 30, it could wake people up and cause them to realize that it was just a correction and not a bear market.

• There is a void between the highs of 2021 at just above 30 and the two peaks at 50 historic peaks were sold. The speaker thinks that there is potential for silver to traverse that void in a very short period of time.

• The question is whether or not silver will stop at 50 for a third time, especially given if gold is in multiple thousands and the fundamentals continue to unfold.

Central Banks' Response to Market Changes

In this section, the speaker discusses how central banks respond to market changes.

Central Bank Reversal

• The central bank will have to do a reversal and not just our central bank but also the ECB and BOJ. Any notion of tightening will go out the window rapidly.

• There will be a competitive drive to drive rates back down again and provide liquidity primarily. It's not so much an issue of interest rate levels but rather balance sheets.

• The FED will have to reverse policy if one headline story causes that reversal.

OliverMSA.com Subscription Services

In this section, the speaker talks about the subscription services offered by OliverMSA.com.

Asset Categories

• The website offers subscription services that cover all four major asset categories: debt markets, foreign exchange, commodities (with an emphasis on gold and silver), and stock markets.

• It's important to look at all four major asset categories because they are interconnected. For example, if the banks move, it can affect gold prices.

• The speaker uses momentum structures to analyze price movements in addition to looking at price itself.

Michael's Insights on Market Reports

In this section, Bill interviews Michael about the frequency of market reports and how they are analyzed.

Frequency of Market Reports

• Michael explains that most asset categories are looked at each weekend.

• During the week, there might be four or five reports on a given market.

• Usually, there are around five reports per week.

Appreciation for Michael's Insights

• Bill thanks Michael for his insights and appreciates hearing from him after a couple of years.