政黨與選舉制度 02. 投票與集體選擇 (二)、民主國家的選舉制度 (一)

Introduction to Voting and Collective Choice

Overview of Individual Preferences and Collective Outcomes

• The course begins with a discussion on how individual preferences can transform into collective preferences, highlighting the role of both individuals and systems in determining outcomes.

• Emphasis is placed on the importance of understanding this transformation process for further research in political science.

Case Study: Gerrymandering

• The lecture introduces a classic example of gerrymandering known as "Jerry Mandering," named after Jerry, a governor from Massachusetts in the early 19th century. This term describes the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor one party over another.

• It explains how Jerry used his significant authority during redistricting to create oddly shaped districts that benefited his political party, leading to the term's negative connotation in American politics.

Impact of Redistricting on Elections

Consequences for Congressional Representation

• Redistricting affects not only congressional representation but also influences the Electoral College votes each state receives during presidential elections, making it crucial for political parties.

• The U.S. House of Representatives has a fixed number of 435 members, which are redistributed every ten years based on census data; this impacts states' representation significantly over time due to population shifts.

Historical Context and Population Shifts

• Over centuries, states like New York have seen their congressional representation decline while states like California have increased theirs due to demographic changes, illustrating significant shifts in political power across regions.

• The concept of "Grey Apportionment" is introduced as a method for redistributing congressional seats among states based on population changes every decade following the census results.

Challenges in Redistricting Processes

Variability Across States

• Different states employ various methods for redistricting; some use state legislatures while others may establish independent commissions or committees, leading to inconsistencies and potential biases in district drawing processes.

• A notable example includes Texas's contentious redistricting process where partisan interests led to accusations of unfairness by Democrats against Republican-dominated decisions during recent cycles (2010 and 2020).

Political Implications

• The lecture discusses how these redistricting battles often lead to dramatic political maneuvers such as lawmakers fleeing their state or engaging in negotiations that reflect deep partisan divides within legislative bodies.

Redistricting Issues in Taiwan

Comparison with U.S.

• Taiwan's electoral system has undergone significant changes similar to those observed in the U.S., particularly regarding its proportional representation system which was altered from multi-member districts to single-member districts with two votes per person starting from 2008.

Legislative Representation Challenges

• Specific examples illustrate how population counts affect legislative seat allocations; discrepancies arise when smaller counties receive guaranteed representation despite lower populations compared to larger areas that may lose seats due to population declines (e.g., Yilan County).

Controversies Surrounding District Drawing

Local Political Dynamics

• The complexities involved in drawing electoral districts are highlighted through case studies such as Miaoli County’s shifting number of representatives from four down to two post-redistricting efforts, showcasing local factionalism and community interests at play during these processes.

Final Decision-Making Process

Electoral Changes and Political Dynamics in Taiwan

Predictions for Legislative Seats in 2028

• By 2028, predictions indicate potential reductions in legislative seats for certain counties, notably NanTou and JiaYi, which may see a decrease from two to one seat due to demographic changes.

• The complexity of redistricting arises as areas like Taoyuan could gain an additional seat, raising questions about how these changes will be implemented given the current six-seat structure.

Redistricting Challenges

• The process of drawing electoral districts must adhere to principles such as cultural similarity and geographical connectivity; for instance, districts should not separate areas like Wanhua from Beitou.

• A proposed redistricting plan by the Haizhe Party suggests grouping administrative regions (AB, CD, EF, GH), which appears logical but may lead to unequal representation based on party strength.

Disparities in Electoral Outcomes

• Despite equal political power (400 vs. 400), the proposed district divisions resulted in a skewed outcome of 3 seats for Haizhe Party versus 1 for Guoying Party, highlighting issues of fairness in district mapping.

• Various proposals emerged from impartial figures aiming to achieve a more balanced distribution of seats; however, even with different plans, disparities persisted.

Historical Context and International Influences on Electoral Systems

• Different countries adopt varied electoral systems influenced by historical sequences and international socialization; examples include Eastern European nations mimicking Soviet structures post-Cold War.

• Taiwan's adoption of its single-member district system reflects learning from Japan’s electoral practices during its democratization phase.

Factors Influencing Electoral System Design

• Four main factors shape a country's electoral system: historical context, international influences, political culture differences, and preferences among political elites at the time of design.

• Changes within a country’s political environment can lead to shifts in electoral systems over time; France's transition from proportional representation to majority voting illustrates this dynamic.

Classifying Electoral Systems Globally

• Scholars categorize global electoral systems into three families: majoritarian systems (first-past-the-post), proportional representation systems, and mixed systems that combine elements of both.

• Taiwan employs a mixed system where regional representatives are elected through relative majority while partisanship is determined via proportional representation methods.

Understanding Majority Voting Systems

• Majority voting can be categorized into relative majority (plurality wins with most votes), absolute majority (requires over half the votes), single-member districts (SMD), and multi-member districts with various counting methods.

Understanding the First Past the Post Electoral System

Overview of First Past the Post (FPTP)

• The FPTP system allows for a single winner in an electoral district, where the candidate with the highest votes wins, even without a majority.

• This system is prevalent in many English-speaking countries and former British colonies, including the UK, US, Canada, and India.

• FPTP is characterized as a "winner-takes-all" approach due to its single-member district structure.

Global Adoption of FPTP

• Approximately 26.7% of countries use FPTP for electing their parliament members; however, only about 10% utilize it for presidential elections.

• In Taiwan and several other nations like South Korea and the Philippines, presidential elections also follow this voting method.

Clarifying Electoral District Types

• The terms "single-member district," "multi-member district," and "large district" are often misunderstood; they should be defined by the number of elected representatives rather than population size or area.

• A single-member district refers to any electoral area that elects one representative regardless of its population or geographical size.

Multi-Member District Definitions

• Multi-member districts are categorized based on how many representatives are elected:

• Medium-sized districts (2 to 5 representatives).

• Large districts (6 or more representatives).

Historical Context in Taiwan's Elections

• Before reforms in 2008, Taiwan had both single-member and multi-member districts; now all have transitioned to single-member districts.

• The distinction between these types is crucial for understanding electoral dynamics and historical voting patterns within Taiwan.

Types of Voting Systems Explained

Voting Methods Under Multi-Member District Systems

• There are three main types of voting systems used under multi-member districts:

• Full Block Voting: Voters can select as many candidates as there are positions available.

• Limited Voting: Voters can select fewer candidates than there are positions available.

• Single Non-transferable Vote (SNTV): Each voter casts one vote for one candidate regardless of how many positions exist.

Implications of Different Voting Systems

• Full block voting allows voters to choose multiple candidates up to a set limit but risks creating wasted votes if too many selections are made.

• Limited voting restrictively caps selections based on fractions (e.g., half or third), influencing strategic voting behavior among constituents.

Impact on Local Political Dynamics

Influence on Local Elections

• The choice between full block voting and limited voting significantly affects local political power dynamics, particularly within community organizations like farmers' associations.

Voting Dynamics and Electoral Strategies

Understanding Voting Mechanics

• The discussion begins with the mechanics of voting, emphasizing how votes can be manipulated to favor certain candidates. It highlights that secret ballots are often not as secretive as presumed.

• A hypothetical scenario is presented where 51 voters are instructed to vote for specific candidates (1 through 9), resulting in each candidate receiving equal votes, demonstrating how a small controlling faction can dominate outcomes.

• The concept of "binding" voters is introduced, explaining that if a faction controls just over 21% of the electorate, they can effectively dictate election results by ensuring their preferred candidates win.

Implications of Vote Threshold Changes

• The conversation shifts to the implications of changing electoral thresholds from 1% to 2%, questioning why such changes were made under the current government.

• It is explained that under a 2% threshold, a faction would need to control more seats (3%) compared to the previous system (1%), complicating their ability to secure dominance in elections.

• The speaker outlines various scenarios based on different percentage thresholds required for winning seats, illustrating how these changes impact larger factions versus smaller ones.

Challenges Faced by Larger Factions

• As thresholds increase (e.g., from 2/3 majority requirements), it becomes increasingly difficult for large factions to maintain control over elections due to higher seat requirements.

• The discussion emphasizes that lower proportional representation makes it harder for large factions while potentially benefiting smaller parties seeking representation.

Coalition Building and Vote Trading

• The concept of coalition-building through vote trading or "配票" (vote exchange) is introduced. Smaller factions may ally with larger ones when they cannot meet seat requirements independently.

• Examples from Taiwanese political history illustrate how major parties engage in vote trading during internal elections, highlighting its prevalence and strategic importance within party dynamics.

Electoral Systems and Their Effects on Representation

• A critique of Taiwan's electoral system reveals how it favors established factions while making it challenging for new or smaller groups to gain traction without engaging in vote trading practices.

• Ethical considerations around vote trading are discussed; despite calls for moral conduct among party members, practical realities often necessitate such strategies for survival within competitive environments.

SNTV: A Unique Electoral System

• Single Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) is described as an extreme form of limited proportional representation beneficial primarily for smaller parties aiming for legislative seats with minimal voter support.

• Under SNTV rules, even small percentages of votes can secure representation; thus, small factions have opportunities if they can mobilize enough support relative to total votes cast.