TCT 017: Critical Thinking About Conspiracies | Part 2

Critical Thinking and Conspiracy Theories

Introduction to the Podcast

• The Critical Thinker Podcast, hosted by Kevin Delant, focuses on independent critical thinking.

• Listeners can access episodes via iTunes (audio only or video), YouTube (Philosophy Freak channel), and the website www.criticalthinkacademy.com.

• The podcast includes show notes with references and resources relevant to each episode.

Recap of Previous Episode

• Episode 16 introduced conspiracies and conspiracy theories from a critical thinking perspective.

• This episode will explore arguments urging caution regarding large-scale conspiracy theories.

Goals of the Discussion

• The host emphasizes that the goal is not to dictate beliefs about specific conspiracy theories but to encourage independent thought.

• Acknowledges that some conspiracy theories may be true while others are false; expertise lies in critical thinking principles rather than specific theories.

Default Skepticism Towards Conspiracies

• Introduces "default skepticism," a common attitude among skeptics towards conspiracy hypotheses, suggesting they require scrutiny.

• Defines default skepticism: larger conspiracies are deemed less likely true due to their complexity and required secrecy.

Understanding Grand Conspiracies

• Discusses how grand conspiracies involve more people, longer timelines, and deeper social structures compared to smaller conspiracies.

• Examples include political party conspiracies versus grand claims like government cover-ups of alien spacecraft.

Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence

• Links default skepticism to Carl Sagan's principle that extraordinary claims necessitate extraordinary evidence.

• Explores why skeptics view grand conspiracy hypotheses as inherently implausible, seeking justification for this judgment.

The Plausibility of the Moon Landing Hoax Theory

Introduction to Conspiracy Theories

• The discussion begins with an example of the moon landing hoax theory, highlighting that even Jesse Ventura, who is sympathetic to conspiracy theories, distances himself from the notion that NASA faked the moon landings.

Plausible Aspects of the Theory

• It is noted that while there are plausible elements to the moon landing hoax theory, such as doubts about NASA's technological capabilities in 1961, this does not confirm its truth.

• The idea that video footage could be staged on a sound stage is considered one of the least implausible aspects of the theory due to historical context and pressures during the Cold War.

Challenges to Believing in a Cover-Up

• To accept that the landings were faked requires belief in a vast conspiracy involving numerous individuals maintaining silence for over 40 years.

• This includes not only top officials but also engineers and scientists who would need to remain unaware or silent about any cover-up.

Human Nature and Whistleblowing

• The speaker questions whether those involved could suppress their anxieties about participating in such a deception without confiding in others.

• There’s an exploration of human nature suggesting some individuals might feel compelled to reveal secrets, especially if they believed it was significant enough for public knowledge.

Incentives for Disclosure

• Journalists investigating potential hoaxes would have strong incentives to expose any wrongdoing, drawing parallels with famous whistleblowers like Woodward and Bernstein from Watergate.

Psychological Considerations for Officials

• High-level officials contemplating a conspiracy would weigh political costs against potential fallout from being discovered if they chose to fake a moon landing.

• The risks associated with exposure would likely deter them from pursuing such an option unless they believed it could be kept secret.

Control Over Information

• For officials to rationalize faking a landing, they must believe that information can be tightly controlled; however, this assumption is challenged throughout history.

Skepticism Towards Conspiracy Theories

• A core premise of skepticism suggests that controlling information is inherently difficult due to unpredictable leaks and unintended consequences within complex systems.

Conclusion: Understanding Conspiracy Dynamics

• Overall skepticism arises from recognizing how challenging it is for large groups of people to maintain secrecy over extended periods amidst various motivations for disclosure.

Understanding Skepticism Towards Conspiracy Theories

The Nature of Skepticism

• The skeptical stance underestimates the powers that be in controlling information and influencing human beliefs and decisions.

• Central to skepticism is the belief that large-scale conspiracy theories require an unrealistic level of information control and psychological manipulation, which lacks evidence in human society.

Scale of Conspiracies

• Skeptics argue that skepticism should increase with the size of a conspiracy; smaller conspiracies are seen as more plausible than larger ones.

• Thoughtful conspiracy theorists counter this by asserting that significant levels of information regulation and psychological control are indeed possible.

Methods of Control

• A key element in grand conspiracy theories is the belief in elite powers possessing various methods for persuasion and mind control.

• These methods, combined with organized disinformation campaigns, are viewed as essential for the success and maintenance of grand conspiracies.

Future Discussions

• The next episode will explore how perceptions about the plausibility of conspiracy theories evolve when considering potential influences on mainstream media and science.