1 MILLÓN DE PESOS en FIBRAS | ¿Cuanto se GANA al mes?

Investment in Fibras: A Comparative Analysis

Introduction to the Investment Project

• In January 2024, an ambitious investment project in real estate investment trusts (fibras) was initiated with an initial investment of 200,000 pesos.

• The project aims to answer a critical question: Is it better to buy a house with a mortgage for rental income or to build a portfolio of fibras?

• The author emphasizes the importance of applying knowledge gained from reading non-fiction books, particularly those by Luis Ortiz de Montellano on fibras.

Financial Projections and Strategy

• The mortgage projection indicates that with a down payment of 200,000 pesos, monthly payments would be approximately 9,000 pesos over 20 years.

• Monthly investments of 9,000 pesos into the fibra portfolio are made alongside any additional contributions when possible.

Portfolio Performance Insights

• The video will reveal the current value of the fibra portfolio and its rental income generation on a quarterly basis.

• The most expensive fibra in the portfolio is priced at $80 per share while the cheapest is $5, making it accessible for small investors.

Educational Segment on Types of Fibras

• An educational section will cover different types of fibras and key concepts important for investing in them.

Types of Fibras Explained

Industrial Fibras

• Industrial fibras lease logistics warehouses to large companies like Amazon; considered safe due to long-term contracts (minimum five years).

Commercial Fibras

• Commercial fibras rent out shopping centers; they generate significant cash flow but depend heavily on consumer spending power.

Office Fibras

• Office fibras lease spaces to corporations; however, demand has decreased post-pandemic due to hybrid work models.

Hotel Fibras

• Hotel fibras have lower occupancy rates as rentals are short-term; recent investments were made anticipating increased demand during events like the World Cup.

Infrastructure Fibras

• Two examples were mentioned but not detailed within this segment.

Understanding Infrastructure and Real Estate Investment Trusts (Fibras)

Overview of Fibras

• Fibras are investment vehicles that rent infrastructure rather than real estate, such as telecommunications towers and electricity infrastructure.

• The fundamental analysis for infrastructure fibras differs from that of real estate fibras; the speaker prefers investing in real estate fibras.

Key Concepts for Investing in Fibras

• Net Asset Value (NAV): Calculated by subtracting liabilities from assets, found in quarterly reports. An example will be provided later.

• NAV per CBFI: This formula determines the theoretical value of each investment certificate by dividing the net value of all properties by the number of certificates in circulation, indicating if a fibra is undervalued or overvalued.

Financial Metrics Explained

• Net Operating Income (NOI): Measures building profitability by taking rental income and deducting expenses like insurance and utilities.

• Funds From Operations (FFO): Derived from NOI minus operating expenses (OPEX) and debt interest. OPEX includes salaries, office rent, etc.

• Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO): Represents what can be distributed to investors after paying all operational costs and capital expenditures (Capex), which cover maintenance costs.

Distribution Practices Among Fibras

• Many fibras distribute only 60% to 80% of their AFFO to reinvest the remainder for growth. Few distribute 100%.

Understanding Cap Rate

• Implicit Cap Rate: Calculated by dividing NOI by total company value, which includes both market price of certificates and net debt. A simple example will follow.

Example Scenario for Clarity

• A group of ten friends buys an apartment building worth 10 million pesos but finances part with a bank loan. NAV is calculated as assets minus liabilities.

Breakdown of Financial Terms Using an Example

• In this scenario, NAV equals 6 million pesos after accounting for a 4 million peso loan against the property’s value.

CBFI Calculation

• Each friend holds one-tenth ownership represented as CBFIs; thus each CBFI's value is derived from NAV divided by total CBFIs, resulting in a lower valuation due to debt.

Operational Income Analysis

• The group collects rental income but incurs utility costs leading to an NOI calculation before other expenses are deducted.

Final Profit Distribution

• After paying bank interest and management fees from NOI, they calculate FFO. Further deductions for unexpected repairs lead to calculating AFFO available for distribution among friends.

Evaluating Investment Quality

• The cap rate indicates how profitable the building is based on its monthly revenue generation compared to its purchase cost.

Investment Strategies in Real Estate

Understanding Cap Rate and Implicit Cap Rate

• The monthly cap rate is calculated by dividing the monthly income of 80,000 pesos by the property value of 10,000 pesos, resulting in a cap rate of 0.8% or an annualized rate of 9.6%.

• If a friend sells their property ticket at a discount (400,000 pesos instead of its real value of 600,000 pesos), your personal return increases due to the lower purchase price while rental income remains unchanged.

• Buying at a lower price raises your implicit cap rate; conversely, purchasing at a higher price decreases it. This highlights the importance of timing and pricing in investment decisions.

Five Basic Principles for Investing in FIBRAs

Principle One: Occupancy Rates

• A minimum occupancy rate above 90% is essential for most sectors except hotels, where lower rates are expected due to business nature. Higher occupancy leads to increased rental income.

Principle Two: Fair Pricing

• Investors should never pay more than the Net Asset Value (NAV) when acquiring FIBRAs; understanding how to calculate NAV is crucial for making informed purchases.

Principle Three: Valuation Monitoring

• If any FIBRA becomes significantly overvalued (e.g., Fibra Nova was purchased below intrinsic value but later traded above it), consider selling to avoid losses as market corrections occur. The example shows Fibra Nova trading at nearly 39 pesos against an intrinsic value around 27 pesos.

Principle Four: Debt Levels

• The debt-to-equity ratio should remain below 40%, with lower levels being preferable; exceeding 45% indicates potential financial risk for the FIBRA.

Principle Five: Sustainable Dividends

• Ensure that the Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) cover dividends adequately; if payout ratios exceed 100%, it signals unsustainable dividend practices relying on savings rather than earnings.

Portfolio Overview and Performance Metrics

• The speaker plans to transparently share their portfolio details including total investments, current valuation, and average monthly rental income received from properties held within this portfolio.

• As of now, the portfolio's worth stands at approximately 1,680,929 pesos after starting with an initial investment of about 200,000 pesos two years ago; consistent monthly contributions have been made alongside reinvestment strategies yielding significant growth over time.

• Historical performance shows a return on investment (ROI) of approximately 57.46%, translating into gains totaling around 345,123 pesos since inception; recent fluctuations indicate rapid changes in market conditions affecting valuations dynamically throughout trading hours.(927s)

Current Portfolio Distribution Insights

• Recent adjustments have led to significant concentration within one specific FIBRA—Fibra MQ—which currently comprises about 56.94% of the overall portfolio due to perceived market opportunities identified recently.(994s)

Investment Insights on Fibra MQ and Other Positions

Overview of Fibra MQ Performance

• The speaker reports an 18.52% gain on their investment in Fibra MQ, with a current average cost of 30.57 pesos and a market value of 36.21 pesos.

• Technical analysis is introduced as a method to predict future price trends based on past price and volume data using mathematical indicators.

Technical Analysis Pattern: Cup and Handle

• The "cup and handle" pattern is explained, characterized by a rounded bottom followed by a consolidation phase before breaking out upwards.

• The target price for the breakout is determined by measuring the depth of the cup, which indicates potential future price movements.

Current Market Analysis for Fibra MQ

• Historical data shows that Fibra MQ's lowest point was in 2018 at 16 pesos; the current analysis suggests significant upward potential.

• A visual comparison between current charts and historical patterns reinforces the presence of the cup and handle formation.

Price Projections Based on Patterns

• Although not guaranteed, there’s high confidence that this technical pattern will complete over time, potentially reaching a target price of around 45 pesos per title.

• This projection represents approximately a 24%-25% gain from current levels, alongside quarterly rental income.

Valuation Context for Fibra MQ

• The theoretical value (NAV) for Fibra MQ stands at approximately 44.98 pesos; thus, even if it reaches the projected target, it would still be undervalued.

Portfolio Breakdown: Other Investments

• The speaker discusses other positions in their portfolio including:

• Fibra Prologis: Represents 15.05% of the portfolio with a cost basis of 62.25 pesos; currently valued at 80.22 pesos.

• Fibra Shop: Accounts for 14.30% with an average cost of 8.62 pesos; now valued at 9.17 pesos (6.30% gain).

• Fibra Nova: Holds a low average cost of 22.45 pesos; previously peaked at 39 pesos leading to substantial gains.

Tax Implications and Speculative Positions

• Selling profits from fibers like Nova are tax-free; currently holding an open position with gains amounting to approximately $41,000.

• A small speculative position in Fibra In, representing only 3.57% of the portfolio, has been introduced alongside previous investments discussed earlier.

This structured overview captures key insights into investment strategies focusing on technical analysis while providing context about various fiber investments within the speaker's portfolio strategy.

Investment Portfolio Update and Analysis

Portfolio Adjustments

• The speaker reports a 13.33% gain on their investment, mentioning the need to trim positions in Fibra Danos and Fibra Monterrey due to price increases.

• A new portfolio distribution is introduced, with an Excel file shared for viewers to track investments. Instructions are provided for making a copy of the file.

Portfolio Composition

• The Excel file includes details about current investments, portfolio value, and percentage allocations for each asset.

• Information on various FIBRAs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), including Fibrahop (100% commercial), Fibrava (mainly industrial), and others is presented.

Occupancy Rates and Dividends

• A key investment rule is highlighted: all FIBRAs should have an occupancy rate above 90%. Most meet this criterion except for Fibra IN, which operates in the hotel sector.

• Dividend yields are discussed; only Fibra Shop exceeds a 7% annual yield at present. Other yields range from 3.50% to 6.76%.

Debt Levels and Payout Ratios

• All FIBRAs maintain debt levels below 40%, with Fibra Shop nearing this threshold.

• The payout ratio indicates how much of the available funds are distributed as dividends; high ratios can signal potential issues.

Valuation Insights

• Concerns arise over Fibra Monterrey's valuation being above its theoretical value, leading to recommendations against purchasing it at inflated prices.

• An alarming payout ratio of over 100% for Fibra IN suggests unsustainable dividend practices, warranting close monitoring.

Market Opportunities

• Current market analysis reveals that most FIBRAs in the portfolio are undervalued except for Nova and Monterrey.

• Recommendations include focusing on investing in undervalued assets like Fibra MQ and considering re-entry into previously held positions based on market conditions.

Investment Insights on Fibras

Portfolio Overview and Investment Strategy

• The speaker discusses their interest in investing in Fira Monterrey, specifically waiting for the price to drop below 1.50 pesos before purchasing.

• A detailed breakdown of quarterly payments from various Fibras is provided, highlighting the income generated based on the number of titles held.

Income Generation from Fibras

• The speaker explains that Fibra Shop pays capital reimbursement, resulting in net income being equal to gross income due to tax exemptions.

• In contrast, Fibra MQ incurs a 30% tax on fiscal results, leading to a significant difference between gross (41,160 pesos) and net income (28,812 pesos).

Monthly Income Analysis

• The total annual net income from the portfolio amounts to 54,000 pesos, translating into a monthly net rental income of 4,500 pesos.

• The speaker compares this investment strategy to owning a rental property without dealing with tenant issues or maintenance costs.

Performance Review by Year

• For 2024, the average monthly rent was reported at 1,735 pesos despite an overall lackluster performance with minimal growth in investment value.

• In 2025, there was significant improvement with total rents exceeding 35,000 pesos and an average monthly rent of 2,940 pesos.

Future Projections and Historical Performance

• By the end of 2025, total investments reached approximately 722,000 pesos with historical returns surpassing expectations at over 43%.

• Anticipation for even better performance in future years is expressed as more titles are acquired and reinvested.

Conclusion on Rental Income Trends

• The speaker concludes that as more titles are accumulated and reinvested into the portfolio each month, future rental incomes will likely exceed current contributions.