Impact of New Survey Law on Electoral Campaigns

Introduction to Dr. César Caballero

• Dr. César Caballero, head of the firm Cifras y Conceptos, is introduced as an expert in opinion measurement and surveys following the enactment of a new survey law in Colombia.

Effects of the New Law on Surveys

• The immediate effect of the new law prohibits publishing any voting intention surveys until November, creating a "strange ban" that restricts public access to this data.

• The law not only bans voting intention surveys but also raises questions about whether it applies to favorability ratings or evaluations of public figures, leading to potential legal ambiguities for polling firms.

Clarification on Internal Surveys

• Political parties can conduct internal surveys for their candidates but cannot publish the results publicly; this includes restrictions on social media dissemination as per the law's provisions.

Technical Requirements Imposed by the Law

• The new regulations require a 95% confidence level with a maximum error margin of 3%, significantly increasing sample size requirements for valid polls, which could lead to higher costs for conducting surveys.

• For example, to report a candidate with 15% support accurately under these conditions would necessitate a sample size of approximately 8,350 respondents, making it financially unfeasible for many regional campaigns.

Implications for Campaign Financing and Access

• The financial burden imposed by these requirements may limit access to quality polling data primarily to wealthier candidates or parties, potentially skewing campaign strategies towards those with more resources. This creates an uneven playing field in electoral competition.

Comparison with International Practices

Concerns Over New Survey Regulations

Impact on Reputable Polling Firms

• The speaker expresses concern that new regulations may silence reputable polling firms, leading to a rise in unreliable surveys and misinformation.

• Serious polling companies face severe restrictions while unregulated entities can operate without fear of penalties, creating an uneven playing field.

Legal Responsibilities for Pollsters

• New laws impose civil and criminal liabilities on pollsters for failing to comply with statistical laws, which are often contradictory.

• If a candidate feels wronged by a survey's results, they could potentially file legal actions against the polling firm for damages.

Obligations to Include Candidates

• The law mandates that all candidates with public notoriety must be included in polls, raising concerns about subjective interpretations of "notoriety."

• A candidate has already claimed their right to be polled based on media coverage, highlighting potential conflicts over who qualifies as notable.

Critique of the New Law

Constitutional Concerns

• Martín Orosco argues that the law is unconstitutional and acts as disguised censorship by restricting political opinion surveys.

• The law not only limits voting intention polls but also hinders general political opinion surveys essential for gauging public sentiment towards leaders and policies.

Financial Implications for Polling Firms

• The financial burden imposed by the new requirements will likely lead to fewer firms being able to conduct comprehensive studies due to high costs.

• This change threatens valuable projects like Imbammer Pool, which provided localized insights into public opinion across major cities.

Consequences of Information Access

Impact of New Survey Law in Colombia

Concerns Over Democratizing Surveys

• The government's intention to democratize surveys by including lesser-known candidates is questioned, suggesting it benefits no one, including the candidates themselves.

• Lack of information from these surveys will prevent visibility into public expectations and needs during campaigns, leading to a disconnect between citizens and current governance.

Consequences of Censorship

• The law creates uncertainty as it restricts access to real and scientific data, which undermines the integrity of serious surveys.

• The legislation is viewed as a form of censorship since it limits funding for survey projects, contradicting its stated goal of eliminating unreliable survey companies.

Legal Implications and Industry Response

• There are plans within the industry to pursue judicial actions against the law due to its improper classification as an ordinary law rather than a statutory one.

• The original proposal was linked to significant reforms that were ultimately rejected; this raises concerns about legislative transparency and intent.

Privacy and Data Protection Issues

• New requirements mandate sharing contact databases without personal identifiers, risking individual privacy while still allowing for potential identification through indirect means.

• Requests from public entities for identifiable data highlight ongoing tensions between governmental oversight and statistical confidentiality rights.

Freedom of Expression at Risk

• The obligation to disclose survey data could infringe on citizens' freedom of expression and information rights, raising alarms about government overreach in monitoring public opinion.