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Looking to 2060: A global vision of future economic growth
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Looking to 2060: A global vision of future economic growth

Global Economic Growth Projections

This section discusses the expected growth of the global economy over the next half-century, with a focus on emerging economies and their impact on developed countries.

Emerging Economies to Drive Growth

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  • Emerging economies such as China and India are expected to experience much stronger and faster economic growth than developed countries like the United States and those in the OECD.
  • This growth will be driven by a better-educated and more productive workforce, as well as population growth in India.
  • The euro area and Japan face challenges due to aging populations, which will drag down their share of global GDP.

Shift in Economic Power

  • China is expected to surpass the United States as the world's largest economy, producing 28% of global GDP by 2030.
  • The United States' share of global GDP will shrink from 23% today to just 17% by 2060.
  • Japan's share of global GDP will also decline significantly due to its aging population.

Convergence of Incomes

  • Incomes and living standards in emerging economies are expected to converge with those in developed countries like the OECD over time.
  • Richer OECD countries like France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, and Greece may see their per capita income fall compared to that of the United States.

Boosting Long-Term Growth

This section discusses how improving public finances and implementing bold structural reforms can boost long-term growth and living standards in advanced and emerging economies alike.

Improving Public Finances

  • Improving public finances can help boost long-term growth and living standards in both advanced and emerging economies.

Implementing Structural Reforms

  • Bold structural reforms can also help drive long-term growth and improve living standards in both advanced and emerging economies.

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What will the world economy look like after 2050? The balance of economic power is set to shift during the next half century, as fast-growing emerging markets such as China and Brazil account for a larger share of global output and world GDP, while developed countries such as the United States and Japan see their share easing back. These OECD projections, which pre-date the coronavirus pandemic, are not set in stone, and economic reforms to improve performance could alter future world rankings. For more information on the long-term outlook, visit: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/looking-to-2060-long-term-global-growth-prospects_5k8zxpjsggf0-en.html ABOUT THE OECD The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation established in 1960 that works collaboratively to build better policies for better lives. Our goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. Together with governments, policy makers, policy shapers, and citizens, we work on establishing evidence-based international standards and finding solutions to a range of social, economic and environmental challenges. From improving economic performance and creating jobs to fostering strong education and fighting international tax evasion, we provide a unique forum and knowledge hub for data and analysis, exchange of experiences, best-practice sharing, and advice on public policies and international standard-setting. To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us, go to https://www.oecd.org/about/. Keep up with latest at the OECD, visit https://www.oecd.org/. #oecd #ocde