The Power of Changes in Population Over Time

In this interview, the speaker discusses the power of changes in population over time and how it affects industrialization and de-industrialization.

Industrialization and Population Growth

• After World War II, globalization started, and countries began to industrialize.

• People moved off farms into higher value-added jobs in towns where new manufacturing jobs were available.

• As a result of industrialization, people had fewer children but the population continued to grow due to improved healthcare systems.

• China is an example of a country that has experienced significant population growth due to increased life expectancy rather than new births.

De-industrialization and Terminal Countries

• De-industrialization is becoming a trend as countries run out of people in their 20s and 30s, which leads to a loss of consumption base.

• Terminal countries are those that experience terminal de-industrialization. They can no longer maintain the inputs that make modern life possible, such as electricity and food.

• If supply chains break down due to factors such as populism or war, it becomes difficult for countries to get the raw materials they need to keep an industrialized system going.

Impact on China

• China is the country most at risk of de-industrializing because it can no longer maintain the inputs that make modern life possible.

• Two aspects of modern life are electricity and food. Without these inputs, large portions of China will be unable to sustain themselves.

Overall, this interview highlights how changes in population over time have significant impacts on industrialization and de-industrialization. Countries that experience terminal de-industrialization face significant challenges in maintaining modern life without the necessary inputs.

The Demographic Resurgence Crisis

In this section, the speaker discusses how some countries are on the verge of a demographic resurgence crisis due to an aging population and lack of workers.

Countries Facing Demographic Resurgence Crisis

• Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Germany, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Italy and Belgium are all countries that are facing a demographic resurgence crisis.

• These countries will vanish over the course of the next century unless they redefine what their nationality means or greatly increase their population.

• These countries lack resources within their own borders and do not have the military capacity to secure those things for themselves.

Germany's Industry and Energy Dependence

In this section, the speaker talks about Germany's industry and energy dependence on other countries.

Germany's Industry Dependence

• Germany has industry and skills but lacks access to markets.

• Under NATO and EU support, Germany hasn't had to go all highlander on everybody in order to get access to markets. However, if American support or European collegiality breaks down then it becomes a problem.

Energy Dependence

• Russia offers energy to Germany at a price when it comes to cooperation or lack thereof in the Ukraine war.

• As Russian energy stops flowing for a mix of reasons such as sanctions or political tensions with Europe over Ukraine war issues. The Russians will have the option for keeping Germany supplied through its pipeline which goes directly under water from Russia to Germany.

• This puts pressure on German policymakers who must choose between having energy/electricity/industry by partnering with Russia or de-industrializing.

The Future of Manufacturing

In this section, the speaker discusses the future of manufacturing in a world where globalization is collapsing.

North American Manufacturing System

• A North American manufacturing system will do very well in this world that we're going into because most of our resources are within the hemisphere.

• The United States has the healthiest demography for both production and consumption in the world and Mexico has the most favorable demographic structure for production and consumption in the advanced developing world.

Exceptions to Manufacturing Success

• Two economic sectors that are exceptions to manufacturing success are agriculture and tech manufacturing.

• American producers are so efficient they have to export about one-third of what they produce which generates some interesting mismatches as globalization breaks down.

• Tech manufacturing specifically is a problem because it requires different price points for labor to represent different parts that go into a product. Electronics have been done so well in East Asia because there's high-end workforces in Japan, Korea, Taiwan; mid-range workforces in Malaysia and Indonesia; low-end workforces in China; and bargain basement places like Philippines.

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