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🚨A qué PRECIO🎯 llegará BTC para que LIMPIE sobre APALANCAMIENTO 🔥 ARDEN las ALTCOIN
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🚨A qué PRECIO🎯 llegará BTC para que LIMPIE sobre APALANCAMIENTO 🔥 ARDEN las ALTCOIN

Dominance of Bitcoin and Its Impact on Altcoins

Introduction to Bitcoin Dominance

  • Guille introduces the topic of Bitcoin (BTC) dominance and its implications for investing in altcoins.
  • The discussion will explore whether it's a good time to invest in altcoins, considering the current state of BTC pricing.

Distortion of BTC Pricing

  • Guille highlights that 80% of BTC trading is synthetic, while only 20% is real, indicating significant market distortion.
  • This synthetic trading inflates the perceived number of BTC in circulation, suggesting there are five times more BTC than actually exist.

Leverage and Market Cleaning

  • A high leverage ratio above 0.2 indicates excessive borrowing against BTC, contributing to market instability.
  • The discussion references Metcalfe's Law, which suggests network value increases with user growth; however, the market estimates a coefficient (K) greater than one due to institutional involvement.

Price Estimation Based on Leverage

  • Current leverage levels suggest an overextension in the market; optimal leverage should be around 0.15 for stability.
  • If the market cleans up excess leverage, BTC prices could stabilize around $50 or slightly higher.

Bitcoin vs. Altcoin Investment Strategies

Historical Context of Bitcoin Dominance

  • Guille discusses how Bitcoin's dominance has decreased since its early days when it competed against fewer altcoins.
  • The influx of numerous altcoins complicates investment decisions as capital gets diluted across many options.

Behavioral Trends During Market Cycles

  • Historically, during bearish markets, investors flocked to Bitcoin as a safe haven; however, recent trends show increased confidence in altcoins even during bullish phases.
  • An anomaly is noted where despite favorable conditions for price increases from 2022 to 2025, investors did not significantly shift funds into altcoins compared to Bitcoin.

Analysis of Bitcoin and Altcoin Trends

Current Market Sentiment

  • The discussion begins with the observation that we may be entering a bearish period, often referred to as "crypto winter," where investors typically prefer Bitcoin over altcoins due to perceived safety.
  • It is noted that Bitcoin's dominance is currently within a defined range, with potential for it to rise to 66% if this range is broken, indicating increased competition among cryptocurrencies.

Investment Strategy Insights

  • The speaker emphasizes that while some altcoins may perform well, the general trend shows they are underperforming compared to Bitcoin, making them riskier investments during uncertain market conditions.
  • The complexity of selecting successful altcoins increases in a fearful market; thus, the speaker advocates for prioritizing Bitcoin in one's investment portfolio based on both personal preference and market trends.
Video description

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