How to Make Big Decisions in Challenging Circumstances | Jonathan Reimer | TED

Wildfire Management and Decision-Making

Introduction to Wildfires

• The speaker recounts their experience as the director of wildland urban interface during the Fort McMurray fire in 2016, highlighting the rapid spread of flames that devastated the community.

• Evacuation orders arrived too late for many residents, leading to chaotic scenes where flames threatened those fleeing. The aftermath revealed a silent city with rows of destroyed homes.

Comparison of Two Fires

• In contrast, during a subsequent fire threatening Waterton, effective preemptive measures were taken. Firefighters evacuated the community three days prior and established protection efforts.

• Despite unexpected fire behavior that night, no homes were lost in Waterton due to timely evacuation and preparation.

Key Decisions in Emergency Management

• The difference between the two fires was a critical decision made by firefighters in Waterton. They assessed risks effectively and acted decisively.

• The speaker emphasizes their role as an emergency manager focused on understanding how to make impactful decisions under pressure.

Understanding Decision-Making Processes

• Typical decision-making involves gathering information, evaluating options, and selecting the best course of action; however, this process can be flawed when faced with uncertainty.

• The speaker reflects on experiences where more information did not lead to better decisions but rather caused confusion among incident commanders.

Insights from Psychology on Intuition

• Research indicates that increasing information can hinder performance; commanders often focus too much on data instead of critical aspects.

• Some successful firefighters relied on intuition rather than extensive data analysis, demonstrating an ability to predict fire behavior through experience.

The Role of Intuition in Decision-Making

• Intuition is described as unconscious pattern recognition that allows individuals to make quick judgments based on past experiences.

• Examples include chess grandmasters who make rapid decisions based on instinct rather than conscious deliberation.

Limitations of Intuition

• While intuition can be powerful, it is not infallible; it can misinterpret patterns or create false conclusions (e.g., seeing shapes in clouds).

Understanding Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

The Role of Intuition and Rational Thinking

• The preference for intuitive thinking can lead to biases, especially in critical evaluations like fire containment strategies, where understanding both success and failure probabilities is essential.

• There are two types of thinking: gut instinct and rational analysis. Each has unique strengths and weaknesses that can be leveraged in challenging situations.

Importance of Size-Up in Decision Making

• In firefighting, a systematic size-up involves gathering crucial information about the situation before deciding on strategies. This process is time-sensitive but vital for effective response.

• A thorough size-up varies by context (e.g., boardroom vs. emergency scene), but establishing a reliable information base is key before making decisions.

The Pitfalls of Intuitive Solutions

• Often, our gut reactions lead us to premature conclusions; we may seek confirmation for these intuitions rather than objectively assessing the situation.

• An example illustrates this: a bat and ball cost $110 total with the bat costing $100 more than the ball. Many instinctively answer $10 without verifying their intuition.

Insights from Research on Intuition

• Providing hints can improve accuracy in problem-solving, yet even when given correct answers, many still cling to their initial incorrect intuitions.

• This tendency highlights how people often prefer their own ideas over better solutions presented later.

Lessons from Historical Firefighting Decisions

• A historical case involving smokejumpers in 1949 shows the dangers of ignoring unconventional solutions under pressure; leader Wag Dodge survived by burning fuel around him while others did not follow his lead.