
Niall Ferguson: How Civilizations Collapse
Niall Ferguson is a Scottish-American historian who serves as the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. The author of 16 books, Ferguson writes and lectures on international history, economic history, financial history and the history of the British Empire and American imperialism. #history #politics #interview We are proud partners with GiveSendGo - a world-leading crowdfunding platform that believes in free speech. Go to https://givesendgo.com and raise money for anything important to you. SPONSORED BY: EasyDNS - domain name registrar provider and web host. Use special code: TRIGGERED for 50% off when you visit https://easydns.com/triggered/ OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Music by: Music by: Xentric | info@xentricapc.com | https://www.xentricapc.com/ YouTube: @xentricapc Advertise on TRIGGERnometry: marketing@triggerpod.co.uk Join the Mailing List: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/sign-up/ Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media: https://twitter.com/triggerpod https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod/ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod/ About TRIGGERnometry: Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin (@konstantinkisin) and Francis Foster (@francisjfoster) make sense of politics, economics, free speech, AI, drug policy and WW3 with the help of presidential advisors, renowned economists, award-winning journalists, controversial writers, leading scientists and notorious comedians. 00:00 Intro 00:43 Are We in the Last Stages of Civilisation? 08:45 How Do Civilisations Fall? 13:03 The State of the American Project 23:04 Sponsor Message: GiveSendGo 24:40 Why We Judge the Past 27:38 Why Are Young People So Nihilistic? 39:59 Is Totalitarianism Cyclical in History? 43:03 Sponsor Message: EasyDNS 44:05 The Failure of Our Historical Education 48:57 Do Men Think About the Roman Empire? 54:10 Why Are Greek Myths So Compelling? 57:34 Niall’s Thoughts on Trump 1:02:47 What’s the One Thing We’re Not Talking About? Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Substack! https://triggernometry.substack.com/
Niall Ferguson: How Civilizations Collapse
The State of Western Civilization
In this section, the discussion revolves around the state of Western civilization and whether it is trending in the wrong direction. The focus is on the educational system and the impact of secular ideologies.
Western Civilization and Educational System
- The educational system has shifted significantly to the left, which many people may not fully realize. This has led to a generation that does not pursue their own interests rationally.
- The new secular ideologies that have emerged are considered by some to be worse than the religions they displaced.
Cyclical Theories of History
This section explores cyclical theories of history and their validity in understanding the rise and fall of empires and civilizations.
Skepticism towards Cyclical Theories
- Cyclical theories of history should be approached with skepticism as history is not inherently cyclical.
- Empires, civilizations, and great powers do not follow a predictable life cycle like individuals do.
- Historical data shows a lot of randomness rather than clear cycles when examining long-term trends.
- Some empires rise and fall rapidly, while others can span centuries.
Assessing the Current State
Here, the focus shifts to assessing the current state of Western civilization and whether there are indicators pointing towards decline.
Historical Perspective
- Similar concerns about Western civilization were present in 1973, but subsequent events showed significant changes within a relatively short period.
- Nonlinearity in historical events makes it difficult to predict or draw conclusions based solely on current circumstances.
- It is important to make precise arguments when discussing potential challenges or declines rather than relying on broad generalizations.
Geopolitical Challenges
This section delves into the geopolitical challenges that are of concern in the present time, including cooperation among certain countries and the economic strength of China.
Geopolitical Concerns
- The increasing cooperation and coordination between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea pose threats to democracies supported by the United States and its allies.
- China's economic and technological capabilities surpass those of any previous rival faced by the United States.
- The United States feels less equipped to handle these challenges compared to 50 years ago.
Fiscal Situation of the US
The focus here is on the fiscal situation of the United States and its potential implications for the future.
Fiscal Challenges
- Despite a strong economy, there is a significant deficit in gross domestic product (GDP), which could lead to unfavorable fiscal consequences.
- Debt service costs are projected to surpass defense spending, indicating an unsustainable trend with rising interest rates and high deficits.
The transcript provided does not include specific timestamps for each bullet point. I have done my best to associate them with relevant parts of the transcript based on context.
New Section
The discussion focuses on the decline of civilizations and the potential concerns regarding the United States' position in the world.
The Shift in Manufacturing Power
- China has become a dominant manufacturing power, surpassing the United States in terms of manufacturing value added.
- In just two decades, there has been a significant role reversal between China and the US.
- In the event of a hot war with China, the US would run out of precision missiles within approximately five days, which is a worse situation compared to 50 years ago.
How Civilizations Fall
- The decline and fall of civilizations can occur due to various factors such as inner crises, aging processes, or entropy.
- The process can be protracted and imperceptible or happen rapidly with noticeable impacts on quality of life.
- Examples include the decline of the Roman Empire and Ming Dynasty in Chinese history.
- Civilizational breakdown can be caused by war, plague, fiscal failure, or other less discernable forces.
Models of Civilizational Breakdown
- Peter Turchin's cliodynamics attempts to construct models for civilizational breakdown.
- Turchin argues that the United States is currently experiencing a cycle of overproduction of elites and predicts organized violence peaking in 2020.
- However, similar arguments could also apply to China based on variables like demographics and overproduction of educated individuals.
Worrying About Decline
- It is common for Americans to worry about their own decline throughout history.
- Concerns about entering a terminal crisis or losing American power have been recurring themes.
- However, it is important not to solely focus on US problems while ignoring potential issues elsewhere.
Loss of Confidence in Shared Myth
- The belief in the shared myth of the empire is considered a sign of collapse for civilizations.
- In the case of America, there seems to be a decline in the number of people, particularly in the elites, who believe in the project anymore.
- The American project is not about empire but rather being a shining city on a hill and building an admired republic.
- Confidence in this project is diminishing among young Americans due to critical narratives taught in education systems.
Loss of Belief in the American Project
- The American project, as a model for all democracies, has lost significant belief and confidence.
- Young people are influenced by narratives that portray American history as founded on white supremacy and filled with tales of woe.
- This loss of belief challenges the idea of America as a shining city on a hill.
Timestamps are approximate and may vary slightly.
Generation Z's Different Views
This section discusses the views of Generation Z and how they differ from older Americans. It highlights a shift in support for Israel and preferences for socialism among Generation Z.
Generation Z's Views on Israel and Socialism
- Generation Z holds different views compared to older Americans.
- When asked about the crisis in Israel, older Americans tend to be pro-Israel, while Generation Z is strongly pro-Palestinian.
- Similarly, when asked about their preference between socialism and capitalism, around 51-52% of Generation Z respondents express support for socialism.
- The educational system plays a role in shaping these views, with a predominance of content that leans towards indoctrination rather than education.
Illiberalism Amongst the Young
This section explores the presence of illiberalism among young people, particularly in relation to environmental issues. It also highlights concerns regarding the left-leaning shift in educational systems.
Authoritarian Solutions and Educational Indoctrination
- Young Americans and young Europeans are willing to consider authoritarian solutions when it comes to environmental issues due to their belief that drastic measures are necessary to save the planet.
- There is a prevalence of illiberalism among the younger generation, which can be attributed partly to the influence of education.
- The educational system has moved further to the left than many people realize, with content that promotes ideas such as white supremacy being foundational to the United States or advocating for zero growth as the only solution for saving the planet.
Denial About Leftward Shift in Universities
This section discusses denial among individuals who haven't had much recent exposure to university life regarding the leftward shift in prestigious universities like Princeton, Yale, and Harvard.
Denial of Leftward Shift in Prestigious Universities
- Many individuals who haven't had much recent exposure to university life are in denial about how far prestigious universities have swung to the left.
- There is a lack of awareness among parents regarding the content being taught as history in schools, which has shifted from traditional topics to more politically activist narratives.
- The educational system now includes narratives that portray the United States as founded on white supremacy and emphasize negative aspects of history, leading impressionable school children to feel guilt or shame.
Questionable Teaching Materials
This section highlights an example of questionable teaching materials related to slavery and their origin from a controversial organization.
Controversial Teaching Materials on Slavery
- A school proposed using teaching materials on slavery that were sourced from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), known for its controversial practices.
- The SPLC has been involved in compiling lists of perceived extremists without providing a balanced perspective.
- The proposed teaching materials included takeaways that portrayed the United States as founded on white supremacy and suggested that African-Americans' situation today is only slightly different from their situation under Jim Crow laws.
- After raising concerns about these materials, they were not used. However, many parents may not be aware of such biased teaching materials being used in schools.
Changes in History Education
This section discusses changes in history education and how it differs from what previous generations experienced.
Changes in History Education
- History education has undergone significant changes compared to what previous generations experienced.
- Traditional topics like kings and queens or prominent historical figures have been replaced with narratives that emphasize negative aspects of history, such as slavery and white supremacy.
- Many parents are unaware of these changes and assume that history education is similar to what they received during their school years.
The transcript provided does not include any additional information.
Recent Changes in Providence
The discussion focuses on the rapid changes that have occurred in Providence over the past decade.
Changes in Providence
- In the last 10 years, there have been significant and fast-paced developments in Providence.
- The guest will provide further insights into these changes.
Introduction to Give Send Go
This section introduces Give Send Go, a crowdfunding website that aligns with the principles of free speech and does not charge any fees for using their platform.
Give Send Go Crowdfunding Platform
- Give Send Go is a leading crowdfunding website available in the US, UK, Australia, and Canada.
- It allows individuals to raise funds for various purposes such as business ventures, medical expenses, personal needs, churches, and funeral costs.
- Give Send Go shares a commitment to free speech and has demonstrated resilience against cancel culture.
- Unlike other big tech companies, they do not charge any fees for using their platform.
- Users can keep all the money they raise without any deductions.
- Starting a campaign on Give Send Go is easy and intuitive.
Historical Perspectives on Gender Fluidity
The conversation delves into an exhibition at the British Museum that labeled a Hindu goddess from 3,000 years ago as gender fluid. The guest provides his perspective on historical interpretation.
Anachronistic Labeling of Historical Figures
- An exhibition at the British Museum described a Hindu goddess from 3,000 years ago as gender fluid.
- The guest finds it problematic to apply modern terminology to historical figures or narratives.
- He believes our approach should be understanding how people thought in the past rather than judging them based on contemporary values.
- Using terminology from the 21st century when framing historic objects or narratives is counterproductive to true historical scholarship.
Understanding the Past in its Own Terms
The guest emphasizes the importance of understanding the past in its own terms and avoiding a judgmental approach towards previous generations.
Reconstructing Past Thought
- The mission of historians is to reconstitute the mental experiences and thoughts of past generations.
- Historians should strive to understand how people in the past perceived the world.
- Comparing past experiences with our own can provide valuable insights and help us avoid condescension towards previous generations.
- It is crucial to avoid using historical narratives as a means to pass judgment on past values or beliefs.
Examining Historical Perspectives without Condescension
The guest argues against viewing history solely through a lens of passing judgment on past values. He highlights the importance of understanding historical contexts without condescension.
Avoiding Condescension in Historical Analysis
- Viewing history as an opportunity to judge past values undermines true historical scholarship.
- Historians should aim to understand how people from different eras saw the world, even if their perspectives differ from contemporary standards.
- By examining historical contexts, we can gain insights into both past and present societal issues, such as unfree labor.
- The role of history teachers should not be limited to passing judgment on past values but rather fostering understanding between different time periods.
Economic Circumstances and Ideological Persuasion
The conversation explores whether economic circumstances, such as high housing prices and limited opportunities for improvement, contribute to ideological persuasions among young people.
Economic Circumstances and Ideological Persuasion
- Economic factors, such as high housing prices and limited prospects for improvement, may influence ideological persuasions among young people.
- However, it is essential not to oversimplify these influences or attribute all radicalism to economic concerns.
- The guest suggests that the radicalism of young people extends beyond economic issues and encompasses a broader range of topics.
- Environmental movements, such as Extinction Rebellion, have gained significant support among young people, even if it contradicts their economic interests.
Clarifying Radicalism and Economic Concerns
The guest clarifies his previous statement about the relationship between radicalism and economic concerns among young people.
Understanding Radicalism and Economic Concerns
- The guest acknowledges that there may be some connection between economic circumstances and ideological persuasions.
- However, he cautions against simplifying this relationship by assuming that all protests or radical actions stem solely from economic frustrations.
- Young people's radicalism covers a wide range of issues beyond housing prices, as evidenced by their involvement in environmental movements like opposing further development in green belts.
Timestamps are approximate and may vary slightly.
New Section
In this section, the speaker discusses the reasons why young people may tend towards nihilism and explores the potential factors contributing to this trend.
Factors Contributing to Nihilism
- The housing issue is a significant concern for young people, as they face challenges in accessing affordable housing. This can lead to feelings of hopelessness and retreat into nihilism.
- Young people may be attracted to radical proposals for reforming not only the housing situation but also the welfare state. The intergenerational balance is skewed in favor of the elderly, which burdens the younger generation with future liabilities.
- Despite economic interests, many young people support political parties that are committed to preserving the current welfare state system. This suggests a lack of understanding of their own economic interests.
- Young people may struggle to support conservative solutions or reforms due to ideological positions acquired through education. These positions can lead to false consciousness and prevent them from pursuing their own interests rationally.
New Section
In this section, the speaker explores additional reasons behind young people's tendency towards nihilism and discusses how narratives and education play a role in shaping their perspectives.
Influence of Narratives and Education
- Young people may adopt certain ideological positions through their education, such as blaming Big Oil or capitalism for societal problems. These narratives can lead them away from pursuing their own interests as a generation.
- Despite entitlement reform being in their economic interest, few young people supported politicians advocating for it. This could be attributed to powerful narratives taught in history classes that simplify complex issues into black-and-white scenarios.
- The allure of simplistic narratives, such as the imminent end of the world, can be highly attractive to people. These narratives are often approached with a quasi-religious spirit, making it challenging to argue against them.
- The speaker suggests that young people may be drawn into a kind of secular religion centered around the impending end of days. This can lead to adopting extreme behaviors and beliefs.
New Section
In this section, the speaker reflects on historical perspectives and discusses how the current trend towards nihilism resembles a new form of secular religion.
Nihilism as a Secular Religion
- The decline of traditional religions has led to people believing in anything rather than nothing. New religions have emerged in the secular sphere, which can be even worse than the religions they displaced.
- The belief in an imminent end of the world is particularly attractive and reminiscent of monotheistic religions' focus on disastrous outcomes.
- Criticizing or offering alternative viewpoints to these narratives is often met with strong resistance and labels like denier or heretic.
- People are drawn into preparing for this impending end through various behaviors like fasting, veganism, celibacy, and not having children. This creates a kind of secular religion centered around survival.
The transcript provided does not cover all sections or topics discussed in the video.
The Difference Between Free and Unfree Societies
In this section, the speaker discusses the profound difference between a free society and an unfree society. They highlight the importance of being able to speak freely, express one's thoughts, form associations, and the consequences of living in an unfree society.
Understanding Freedom and Unfreedom
- Living in a free society allows individuals to speak freely, write their thoughts, and form associations without fear of danger or prohibition.
- In contrast, living in an unfree society can lead to severe consequences such as imprisonment or forced labor camps.
- The speaker expresses concern that many young people today do not have a clear understanding of what it means to live in an unfree society.
Lack of Awareness
- The speaker mentions that younger generations may not fully comprehend the realities of living under oppressive regimes like Hamas or experiencing events such as the Iranian Revolution or Stalin's Soviet Union.
- This lack of awareness may contribute to behaviors seen among some students today, such as writing letters of denunciation or calling for people to be fired for their opinions.
- Totalitarian behaviors can gradually creep into a free society when individuals fail to understand the dangers and consequences associated with unfreedom.
Communicating Unfreedom
- The speaker reflects on how previous generations may have failed to effectively communicate the experiences and realities of living in unfree societies to Generation Z.
- They suggest that firsthand experiences in places like North Korea could potentially change one's perspective on freedom.
Cyclical Nature of History and Historical Amnesia
In this section, the speaker discusses the cyclical nature of history and the phenomenon of historical amnesia. They explore how certain ideas can resurface after a few generations, leading to a lack of understanding and appreciation for past events.
Cyclical Elements in History
- The speaker ponders whether there is a cyclical element in history where certain ideas mutate and resurface over time. They draw parallels between current ideologies and those seen during the Soviet Union era.
- It is suggested that after a few generations, societies may forget the lessons learned from past events, leading to a repetition of similar patterns.
Failure in Historical Education
- The speaker reflects on the failure of historical education in conveying the significance and impact of events like the Holocaust or World War II to younger generations.
- Despite extensive teaching about the Holocaust, some Generation Z students seem oblivious to its implications when chanting slogans related to Palestine. This raises questions about the effectiveness of Holocaust education.
Lack of Understanding Anti-Semitism Beyond Nazi Context
In this section, the speaker explores how anti-Semitism is often associated solely with Nazi Germany, leading to a limited understanding among young people today.
Limited Perception of Anti-Semitism
- The speaker suggests that young people's perception of anti-Semitism may be limited to its association with Nazi Germany. This narrow view prevents them from making connections with other instances of anti-Semitism, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Collective Failure in Historical Education
- There is an acknowledgment that there has been a collective failure in historical education regarding anti-Semitism beyond its connection with Nazis. This failure contributes to a lack of understanding among younger generations.
The Relevance of the Third Reich
In teaching the history of the Third Reich, there was a failure to convey its general relevance and counter the notion of a German special way. The speaker emphasizes that Germany was not unique in its potential for such events to occur.
Failure to Convey General Problem
- Historiography failed to make clear that Hitler exemplified a general problem, turning it into a German problem.
- Ideas about misation and hereditary disease control were not unique to Germany but originated from the United States.
- The focus should have been on Hitler as an example of a larger issue rather than solely attributing it to Germany.
Lack of Compelling Explanation for Hitler's Rise
- Existing theories on Hitler's rise, often taught in schools, are unconvincing.
- Standard explanations linking his rise to economic crisis and unemployment do not hold up when compared to other countries like the United States.
- The Weimar Republic's failure, hyperinflation, and depression alienated middle-class Germans from democracy and made them susceptible to a charismatic leader like Hitler.
- The importance of Hitler's oratory skills and personality cult is often overlooked in mainstream explanations.
Fascination with the Roman Empire
The speaker discusses why there is a fascination with the Roman Empire, particularly in Western societies like the United States. Rome serves as an implicit point of comparison due to its influence on architecture and ideas of republicanism. Additionally, Hollywood has produced numerous movies with Roman content.
Comparison with Rome in American Context
- Rome is implicitly compared with America due to similarities in architecture and republican ideals.
- Books, articles, and movies reinforce this comparison between Rome and America.
- Washington D.C.'s architecture bears resemblance to ancient Rome.
Roman Empire vs. Greek Empire
- Hollywood has produced more content about ancient Rome compared to ancient Greece.
- The Roman Empire's transition from republic to empire and the presence of memorable emperors like Nero make for a more straightforward moral story.
- Ancient Greece lacks similar villainous figures, making it less appealing in terms of storytelling.
The transcript does not provide timestamps for the remaining part of the video.
New Section
In this section, the speaker discusses the impressive scale and duration of achievements in ancient Greek and Roman civilizations. They also touch upon the enduring power of Greek mythology and the cultural significance of the ancient world.
The Magnificence of Ancient Greek and Roman Achievements
- The speaker finds the achievements of ancient Greek and Roman civilizations to be striking in terms of their scale and duration. Going to Athens does not evoke the same feeling as visiting the Greek colonies in Italy or Sicily, which are more impressive.
- The Coliseum in Rome is an unforgettable experience when one walks out of the metro. However, Carthage is often overlooked because it was flattened and destroyed by the Romans.
- History tends to be written by winners, and Carthage's destruction showcases this. The enduring aspects of ancient Greek civilization, such as its literary legacy and myths, contribute to its lasting appeal.
- Greek mythology continues to hold power due to its compelling nature. Despite similarities between Greek gods and Roman gods, there is something captivating about Greek mythology that resonates with people.
- The Greeks were true innovators culturally, leaving behind a great literary legacy that even the Romans could only imitate. In terms of power and territorial range, Rome surpassed Greece but lacked originality.
New Section
In this section, the speaker reflects on how ancient Greek and Roman political philosophy provides important building blocks for understanding Western civilization. They emphasize that lessons from history should be taught to today's students.
Lessons from Ancient Political Philosophy
- Ancient Greek and Roman political philosophy laid important foundations for understanding Western civilization. Concepts like inherent problems with Republican government leading to tyranny are fundamental ideas that influenced Enlightenment thinking.
- The speaker believes it is crucial for today's students to learn more about the ancient world because it offers valuable insights into political philosophy. The Greeks and Romans provide a framework for understanding the potential threats to a republic, such as the rise of demagogues.
- The speaker expresses concern about the current state of American politics, highlighting that the most obvious threat to the Republic is a demagogue who disregards the Constitution. They draw parallels between classical Western political philosophy and the potential dangers facing modern-day America.
New Section
In this section, the speaker discusses Donald Trump's presidency and his impact on American politics. They address arguments made by Trump supporters and express their own views on his disregard for the Constitution.
Donald Trump and Political Disregard
- The speaker acknowledges that some people view Donald Trump as someone who can fix America's problems due to his outsider status and lack of political ties. However, they argue that Trump's actions reveal a disregard for constitutional government.
- The delegitimization of election results was not initiated by Trump but was used against him in 2016. The Democrats' disregard for concerns about illegal immigration and crime played into Trump's hands during his first term.
- While acknowledging that some positive changes were made during Trump's administration, such as an increase in real median household earnings, the speaker believes that events like January 6th revealed Trump's true nature as an enemy of constitutional government.
- The speaker considers reelecting someone who has acted in such a way to be catastrophic and believes it goes against the principles of American history.
This summary covers selected sections from the transcript based on available timestamps.
The Tragic Choice of American Voters
In this section, the speaker expresses their opinion on the upcoming election and the choice American voters will face. They believe that Joe Biden is a less credible candidate due to his age and mistakes made by the Biden Administration. The speaker feels that events are playing into Trump's hands and warns that republics that make such choices are risking their own downfall.
The Conservative Position
- The speaker considers it a conservative position to be concerned about the upcoming election.
- They believe it is tragic that American voters will have to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump once again.
- Joe Biden is seen as an even less credible candidate due to his age and mistakes made by the Biden Administration.
Events Playing into Trump's Hands
- The speaker believes that current events are favoring Donald Trump.
- They mention Gavin Newman as a potential alternative candidate, although they personally wouldn't be happy with this choice.
- If they were a Democrat, they would consider supporting someone like Gavin Newman who they perceive as more capable of defeating Trump.
Crisis in Western Civilization
- The speaker expresses concern about Western Civilization, particularly regarding the possibility of political suicide in the United States.
- They agree with Peter Turin's view that there is an approaching crisis in the United States, specifically related to Republican constitutional order and its legitimacy.
- This crisis is seen as a classical problem faced by republics when the legitimacy of their constitution diminishes.
Crisis of Republican Constitutional Order
In this section, the speaker discusses their belief that there is a crisis in Republican constitutional order and its legitimacy in the United States. They argue that this crisis poses a greater threat than issues related to overproduction of elites or demography.
Crisis of Republican Constitutional Order
- The speaker believes that the crisis in the United States is primarily a crisis of Republican constitutional order and its legitimacy.
- They do not see it as a crisis related to overproduction of elites or demographic changes.
- This crisis is seen as a common problem faced by republics when the legitimacy of their constitution diminishes.
China's Nuclear Program
In this section, the speaker highlights the importance of China's nuclear program and expresses concern about its lack of coverage. They suggest that China building a vast nuclear arsenal is a significant development that deserves more attention.
Importance of China's Nuclear Program
- The speaker believes that China's nuclear program is a major issue that receives little coverage.
- They emphasize the significance of China building a large nuclear arsenal.
- The lack of attention given to this topic is seen as problematic.
The Impact of Israel Falling
In this section, the speaker raises the question of whether the fall of Israel would lead to the collapse of Western Civilization. However, due to time constraints, they are unable to delve further into this topic.
Impact on Western Civilization
- The speaker poses the question if Israel falling would result in Western Civilization collapsing.
- Due to time limitations, they are unable to explore this topic further.
Timestamps have been associated with relevant bullet points based on their position in the transcript.