How the West can adapt to a rising Asia | Kishore Mahbubani

The West's Failure to React Intelligently and Thoughtfully

In this section, the speaker talks about how the West chose to go to sleep at precisely the moment when China, India, and the rest of Asia woke up. He discusses why this happened and his goal for addressing this great mystery.

The West's Failure to React Intelligently and Thoughtfully

• Napoleon famously warned that "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."

• Despite this early warning, the West chose to go to sleep at precisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up.

• Here he is referring to the failure of the West to react intelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously been created by the return of Asia.

• As a friend of the West he feels anguished by this, so his goal today is to try to help the West.

How The West Woke Up The Rest Of The World

In this section, he talks about how Europe took off followed by North America in terms of economic development. He also explains who woke up China and India.

Who Woke Up China And India?

• From year one through 1820, two largest economies were always those of China and India.

• It's only in last 200 years that Europe took off followed by North America.

• So past 200 years have been a major historical aberration.

• Chart two shows how quickly and forcefully China and India are coming back.

• Only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization that did so.

• The West was the first to successfully modernize, transform itself; initially, it used its power to colonize and dominate the world. But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom with the rest of the world.

Three Silent Revolutions

In this section, he talks about how the West shared its art of reasoning with the rest of the world and how it led to three silent revolutions in Asia.

Three Silent Revolutions

• The West carried the art of reasoning to a much higher level through Scientific Revolution, Enlightenment, Industrial Revolution.

• And then shared this art of applied reasoning with rest of world which led to what he calls three silent revolutions.

• First revolution was in economics. Many Asian economies have performed so spectacularly well in economic development because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing free market economics -- a gift from the West.

• Second gift was psychological. Asians after him believe that they can take charge and improve their lives.

• Third revolution: good governance. As a result of good governance -- travel in Asia shows better health care, better education, better infrastructure, better public policies.

Why the West is losing its power

In this section, the speaker explains why he believes the West is losing its power. He cites two major events that distracted the West and led to a lack of adaptation and adjustment.

The End of the Cold War

• The end of the Cold War was a great victory for the West.

• However, it also led to arrogance and hubris.

• Francis Fukuyama's essay "The End of History?" contributed to this hubris by suggesting that only non-Western societies needed to change and adapt.

9/11 and China's Entry into WTO

• 9/11 caused shock, grief, and anger in the United States.

• As a result of this anger, the West did not notice China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001.

• This event injected 900 million new workers into the global capitalist system, leading to creative destruction that affected Western workers' jobs and incomes.

Rise of Populism

• The lack of adaptation and adjustment eventually led to Donald Trump's election in 2016 and contributed to populism's rise in Europe.

• The speaker wonders if these events could have been avoided if not for distractions caused by the end of Cold War and 9/11.

Is It Too Late?

• The big question is whether it is too late for the West to recover and come back in strength.

• The speaker believes it is not too late and recommends a new "three-m" strategy for the West to adopt.

A New Strategy for the West

• The speaker recommends that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy: minimalist, multilateral, and Machiavellian.

• Minimalism involves leaving other societies alone to modernize on their own.

• Multilateralism involves working with the remaining 88% of the world's population to fight threats like Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

• Machiavellianism involves being realistic about power politics and using reason to achieve goals.

Working with the UN

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of working with the United Nations (UN) and how it can lead to success. The first Iraq war is used as an example of how multilateralism works.

Importance of Multilateralism

• Multilateralism is important because the world is becoming a small, interdependent, global village.

• The only global village council we have is the UN.

• Multilateral rules and norms are the best way to constrain rising powers.

Machiavellian Point

• The best way to constrain rising powers is through multilateral institutions and processes.

• A wiser strategy for the West would be minimalist, multilateral, and Machiavellian.

A Great Future Lies Ahead

In this section, the speaker encourages Western societies not to fear the future or rest of the world. He also shares his cultural connection with diverse cultures and societies from Tehran to Tokyo.

Encouragement for Western Societies

• Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them or their children.

• If the West chooses a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral, and Machiavellian, then a great future lies ahead for humanity.